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#Harvey development odds now 100% Models suggest Tx #Hurricane Regardless, Harvey and #92L both serious flood risks. #flhurricane.com
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Systems Tracking West - Harvey, 92L and More

Posted: 07:49 PM 13 August 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:33 PM 17-Aug EDT

7:30PM EDT Update 19 Aug 2017

Recon is presently investigating "Harvey" to determine if the area of low pressure is still closed in some way. Assuming that recon is able to close off a low level circulation, the Low could take advantage of some potentially favorable conditions ahead - perhaps as soon as overnight tonight, and so the official NHC forecast does call for restrengthening. Alternatively, if a coherent LLC is not found, "Harvey" would be an open wave, and not a tropical cyclone.


Image above: NHC Marine Graphicast Issued Sat 19 Aug 2017 22:51 UTC

12:30PM EDT Update 19 Aug 2017
As quickly as the Cabo Verde Season announced its arrival, so too did one of 2017's main themes of anomalously low instability, and in the face of a couple stout upper-level lows and some nearby dry air, it appears that, at least for the time being, Harvey and Invest 92L may be falling apart. We could even see at 5:00 this afternoon that NHC no longer finds enough organization to continue issuing advisories on Harvey altogether, but both features (Harvey, or his remnants, and Invest 92L) would still need to be watched, as conditions for development could improve next week.

8:30PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Cabo Verde Season has Arrived



10:30AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Full Advisories will begin shortly on PTC NINE (91L). Caribbean impacts likely. Recon may find that it is already Harvey later today.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

10AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Three coherent disturbances continue tracking generally west today (91L, 92L, 93L?), and advisories may begin soon on what is now "91L" - the westernmost of the bunch. Recon has been tasked to head out to 91L at 1800Z to help determine if a tropical cyclone has formed and to assess its intensity.

At least two of the above thee disturbances have the potential to affect land within 72 hours (91L and 92L). The next name on the Atlantic list is Harvey.

Original Entry
Disturbances Entering a Favorable Basin




The Atlantic is phasing into a much more conducive state for tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. This is neither hype, nor speculation, and the regions probably most favorable for formation and/or intensification will include the Main Development Region (a rectangular 'box' that encompass the Tropical Atlantic and some of the Caribbean), as well as also off the southeast coast, and possibly even the Gulf. Pick your poison.

As of this new article, there is one named storm in the Atlantic, Gert, which is forecast to come just shy of hurricane intensity and head out to sea regardless, one active Invest (91L), and one convectively active portion of the Monsoon Trof that is not yet Invest tagged, but which could be, if 91L doesn't absorb it. Beyond that, there is also a bit of a wave train pattern over Africa that is ripe for discussion in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge .


TD8 (GERT) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of GERT


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of GERT (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of GERT (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of GERT

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for GERT
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on GERT -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Harvey Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Harvey


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Harvey

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Harvey
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Harvey -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L (Central Atlantic Tropical Low) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Florida Invest and W Atlantic 99L (TD8) Weekend

Posted: 10:50 AM 11 August 2017 | | Add Comment

11PM EDT Update 12 August 2017
Invest 99L has, finally, become the long-ago forecast Tropical Cyclone it now is, TD8, and the title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

Original Entry
With Franklin's ghost now exploring the Pacific, our attention turns to disturbances close to home that are showing some continued signs of development potential.

First, an area of weak low pressure centered offshore of the Volusia coast is expected to continue tracking generally north, and has a low chance of becoming a TD in the next 48 hours. While significant development is unlikely in the face of moderately strong northerly shear and proximity to land, the system could bring areas of heavy rains to portions of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina into the weekend, regardless of development.

Invest 99L, which is the very tenacious wave that we have been following for what seems like years, and at one time had NHC odds of 80%, then down, then up, then down, is now up again. Models do not have a good handle on how this wave will interact with a nearby upper-level low, but shear has been relaxing some. Development sooner rather than later would tend to favor an earlier recurvature out to sea, and so seeing it get a name this weekend could actually be a good thing for interests along the east coast.



TD8 (EIGHT) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#8 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


91L (Far East Atlantic) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Franklin and 99L Problems

Posted: 07:28 AM 03 August 2017 | 15 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 01:47 PM 09-Aug EDT

6 AM EDT Update 7 August 2017

Tropical storm Franklin has a small chance to become a hurricane before landfall in the Yucatan, and the government of Mexico has put up a hurricane watch to reflect this. Landfall for the Yucatan is around midnight tonight (CDT), once back over the open water it has a second chance to strengthen.

Invest 99L is in a bad spot for development right now, it likely won't develop before passing north of the Caribbean. However it should be watched as long as it could potentially develop later.

Flhurricane Radar recording of Belize Radar for Franklin's approach
Webcams:
Mahahual / Costa Maya Webcam Recording
Xel Ha Webcam Recording

10:45PM EDT Update 6 August 2017

Ptnl SEVEN has become Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm, and seventh tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other years have had six Named Storms by this date in the Atlantic basin: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. (Cr. Philip Klotzbach)
-Ciel

3:30PM EDT Update 6 August 2017
Invest 90L is very close to meeting the qualifications to be considered a tropical cyclone, and advisories are likely to be issued soon on SEVEN. Interests in the western Caribbean should prepare for tropical storm conditions early next week. A hurricane prior to crossing into the Bay of Campche is also not out of the question. The next name on the list is Franklin. Not to be confused with the former NHC forecaster.

Elsewhere, 99L in the central Tropical Atlantic appears to be succumbing to dry air and shear, but could pull out of that region later in the new week and still needs to be monitored.
- Ciel

Original Entry

August beings the ramp up in earnest into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season toward the climatological peak, which is the second half of August and most of September. This is the time of year where we watch all areas in the tropics and the most surprises tend to happen. It's also the time when conditions tend to be the best for development, and this year is no exception to that.

In the far east Atlantic, a wave has emerged from Africa in a very good position to develop, and because of this the National Hurricane Center requested an investigation area be put on it almost immediately. This system, tagged as 99L now has a 50% chance for development and multiple model support for it, so it's likely by the weekend we'll have a depression or named storm to track across the Atlantic. This does not guarantee a system will make it across, but history tells us that everything this time of year should be monitored closely.

If it were to develop and maintain itself it would likely be closest to the Caribbean in the middle of next week, and closer to the US late next week. See the forecast lounge for long range discussion and speculation on the system. There are factors that could keep it weak and hamper development, so out this far its impossible to say where or how strong it could be.

There may be other areas to track next week as well, watch for a potential area near the Yucatan / Bay of Campeche.
Flhurricane Radar recording of Belize Radar for Franklin's approach
Webcams:
Mahahual / Costa Maya Webcam Recording
Xel Ha Webcam Recording


Franklin) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Franklin


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Franklin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Franklin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Franklin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Franklin -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L (Tropical Atlantic Wave) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


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Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight

Posted: 11:11 AM 30 July 2017 | 10 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 04:36 PM 02-Aug EDT

7AM EDT Update 31 July 2017
During the past few hours deep convection has persisted and become a little better organized over the well-defined, formerly non-tropical low pressure center being tracked as Invest 98L, and the system is now a Tropical Depression, the sixth tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Although not presently forecast to become stronger than a TD (given the shear and nearby dry air), smaller systems can have surprisingly large and unexpected changes in intensity, up or down, and a modest Tropical Storm into landfall is not out of the question. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds, regardless.
-Ciel


Tropical Storm Warnings up from Anclote River (just south of New Port Richie) to Bonita Beach Florida

2PM EDT Update 30 July 2017
The area in the northeast Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 98L, chances for development are up to 30% in the next 5 days and 20% in the next 48 hours. It continues to bring rain to Central and Northern Florida.

Original Update

A stalled out frontal system over the northeast gulf of Mexico has formed a surface low south-southwest of Panama City, FL and bringing rain to parts of Central and Northern Florida. Although the system isn't likely to develop into anything tropical in the near term, the rainfall and developing low will likely make for a nasty day or two in those areas. Because of the close proximity, We'll be watching the rather vigorous surface low to see if anything comes of it after Florida, right now there's a 10% chance this low develops within the next 48 hours and 20% over the next few days.



Parts of the area in Florida may have some rough weather associated with the front and low, but not much more than a typical afternoon storm (just longer duration)

Additionally the area in the central Atlantic has a 20% for development.

The gulf system has not been tagged as an invest yet.



Emily (Northeast Gulf of Mexico) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Emily


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Emily (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Emily (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Emily

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Emily
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Emily -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Radar Recording for 98L approach


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Tropical Atlantic is Busy Again With Tropical Storm Don

Posted: 01:42 PM 17 July 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:20 PM 17-Jul EDT

12:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Update
This morning's reconnaissance flight found Don succumbing to increasing shear and the abundance of nearby dry air, and in fact, the official NHC forecast now calls for a continued weakening trend, with outright dissipation in just 36 hours. However, to remind our readers, Don is a small cyclone, susceptible to changes in intensity, and as such, it is possible that Don takes advantage of a more favorable window that could open up tonight, and strengthen some about the time it crosses the southernmost Lesser Antilles.

Elsewhere, Invest 96L is struggling even more so with dry air, and remains out at sea.

-Ciel

5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Update
Recon has found that Invest 95L has become Tropical Storm Don, the fifth tropical cyclone and fourth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
-Ciel


Original Entry:



The advertised DNA of 2017 favors development of named cyclones in the Main Development Region (A 'box' generally thought of as south of 20°N, and from 70°W to 20°W). We are now watching not one but two new disturbances in this region: Invests 95L and another, TBD.

As of 1:00PM EDT Monday July 17, recon is approaching Invest 95L, which has been looking more organized than yesterday, despite the appearance of struggling with some nearby dry air, as well as what is probably the diurnal convective minimum. Recon will be looking to see if 95L has developed a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient convective structure to be classified as a tropical cyclone.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should consider watching these. Of note, Invest 95L is a bit of a smaller incipient tropical cyclone, and as such, could intensify faster than a larger system would. Model tracking of 95L (with its moniker updated if and as necessary), is also available in the 95L Forecast Lounge .


Tropical Storm Don Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Don


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Don (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Don (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Don

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Don
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Don -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


E. Carib Radar Recording

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
02:44 pm 22-Aug-2017 EDT

#Harvey development odds now 100% Models suggest Tx #Hurricane Regardless, Harvey and #92L both serious flood risks. #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
09:54 am 22-Aug-2017 EDT

#Harvey could become a Texas threat. #92L hanging around the SE and may stay mostly offshore this week. #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
04:44 pm 21-Aug-2017 EDT

#Harvey and #92L threats increasing. Harvey now 90% odds of redevelopment this week. #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
11:38 am 20-Aug-2017 EDT

#Harvey Remnants and Vigorous #92L Entering far Less hostile environments. US, Mex & C. America risks increasing. #flhurricane.com

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