CFHC Talkback For News Story #104:
Newest Talkback: 03:53 PM 09-12 EDT

FLOYD. CAT 4. 140MPH Winds...
06:04 PM EDT - 12 September 1999

Update 8:30PMModels are still have various solutions, but sometimes hurricanes this strong create their own environments. Some models tend to pull it north before landfall, but not before getting too close to Florida for comfort (effects will be felt). Others still insist on landfall. Tomorrow should be decision and prep day for folks along Florida. It will be for us. Get a good nights rest and check up on it tomorrow. Perhaps prayers will be answered and one of the more extreme to the right scenarios will hold out.

Update 8:00PMWinds now at 145Mph. We'll be updating once again at 11PM and then calling it a night. It will have to get to 156mph to become a Category 5. Pray that does not happen. The scenarios setting up could be long lasting.

Old:
Need I say more...

From the "Tropical Storm Special Update" above the posts:
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOYD TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
6 PM AST SUN SEP 12 1999
LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FLOYD HAVE
INCREASED TO 140 MPH. THIS MAKES FLOYD
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO
MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 935
MB...27.61 INCHES. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED 8 PM AST.

PASCH




For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other areas in Florida -- look for the Emergency Management County pages.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on Gert see the Current Storm Spotlight for Gert.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for Gert
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Floyd Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

Show All Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 15 total)
Oh my! another big pressure drop (#1)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 06:34PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

well as Fred Sanford would say.."This is the big one 'Lizabeth !!!'

FLOYD AND STRENGTH (#2)
Posted by: ROB
Posted On 06:48PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQSR*)

IF FLOYED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LIKE IT HAS BEEN DOING WE COULD MOST LIKELY SEE AN ANDREW OR HUGO STRENGTH STORM OR POSSIBLY EVEN HAVE FLOYD ATTAIN {CAT5} STATUS WITH THAT KIND OF STRENGTH I DONT THINK EVEN THE BIGEST TROUGH COULD PULL IT AWAY
Activity (#3)
Posted by: Dennis
Posted On 07:14PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RTNQRYNTXNSU*)

Where's a good site for discussion of Floyd's activity/future direction? Or, does this site update with regular discussion?
Floyd (#4)
Posted by: Dan
Posted On 07:23PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQYTNXY*)

If this storm continues to strengthen, won't that trough have a lesser impact on it's movement?
Floyd to directly impact Florida... (#5)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:29PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNST*)

The situation with Floyd this evening is nothing less than horrifying for the state of Florida. Satellite imagery continues to show that Floyd is rapidly intensifying with no signs of stopping. Floyd will undoubtedly attain Category 4 status before landfall and I am not discounting the possibility of Floyd attaining Category 5 strength; however, this is unlikely in my opinion. As far as the computer models go this evening, I am not even going to bother with them. At this point, I think that the models are creating more problems than solutions. I predict that Floyd will come ashore near West Palm Beach in 60 to 72 hours with winds of 145 to 150 MPH. I also believe that Floyd will cut across the state, moving north along the west coast. The one factor that the models fail to recognize is that violent storms of Category 4 strength tend to create their own environments aloft. This means that the influences of other steering factors diminish.

Well, that is my forecast. I'll post again later this evening.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Floyd=Daytona (#6)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 07:30PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQPQ*)

The 72hr position is right on top of DAYTONA BEACH...and the 72hr FC said 140mph/gusts to 175...and it's 140 now....and it appears they also shifted the track to the left...
Response to Ronn (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 07:41PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (SXNSPNQVWNQPQ*)

Dear Ronn-

I believe that you are exactly correct that there will be a landfall in FL. The old joke is that the 72 hour position is the safest place to be! However Dennis showed that wasn't necessarily true, and while your scenario is possible, I think it is more likely that the storm will impact the E coast further N than E Palm, and move up the coast, possibly slightly inland.

The forecast for Daytona Beach is a scary one for me (I used to live there and have friends there) however it seems likely in one form or another.

RE: Intensity, the storm is already up to 140mph(6pm) which is what it was forecast to be much further down the road. I don't think a CAT 5 is out of the question. Additionally, the gust factor of such a storm will be devastating beyond belief, even now the gusts are near 170+mph. Just imagine a storm similar to MITCH!

The size of the storm is also amazing! Based on the lastest advisory, T.S. force winds now extend over an area of 400nm diameter! The last storm I remember of that size was Hurricane DORA in 1964. Which by the way struck N Fla(St. Augustine)...the first hurricane in recorded storm history to strike that area from the east.

It appears another precedent may be in the making. That is, a major hurricane (Dora was a CAT 2, tho I remember it as a 3) striking the central/NE Florida coast.

One other thought...if the storm does in fact cross Florida I believe the damage inland will be even more shocking than many can imagine (think Orlando)...mobile homes have increased in number dramatically as just one factor of the increased damage potential.

I know you are praying and so are we.

I can't help but think that God has given the East coast of FL lots of warnings in the last few years (Bonnie, Fran, Bertha, Dennis, etc.) I hope people are on their toes!

I do personally believe that FL will recieve a direct impact, or at least the brunt of the storm. Other areas may also be affected.

It's possible a hurricane watch will go up later tonight - stay tuned.

IHS,
Bill
A Word of Calm thought (#8)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 07:54PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRPR*)

If the F Storm hits max of 5 tonight or early tomorrow, it may start to lose its intensity before it gets where everyone thinks it will go.It will take an awful lot of heat and energy to maintain that kind of intensity for long. I am not sure with all the other storms having come through recently that there is enough energy to keep it that strong for more than a few hours. That is not to say that there wont be devastating flooding at the coast lines. But in the worst case scenario of death and destruction, maybe the worst will be over before it gets where it is going. I can hope cant I
Inland Central Florida (#9)
Posted by: Joe Parra
Posted On 08:06PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (TNQVNQQQNVQ*)

I see this storm impacting Florida in a big way. The storm has grown to the point where steering currents become less of a factor. Right now the models look like they will be relatively accurate.

I have friends and family in Orlando saying that its no big deal, the storm will be hitting the coast anyway. I know better, but can somebody give me some numbers as to what the interior parts of Florida would see with a storm of this magnitude?

Trust the Models? (#10)
Posted by: John Ertter Location: Atlanta, Ga
Posted On 08:17PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QVVNVRNQXRNQTV*)

Well, they say that pilots should always trust their instruments. Should meteorologists always trust their computer models?

If yes, than folks in Florida can breathe a little easier (not that easy, however, especially since a 932 MB hurricane is creeping closer by the minute).

The latest GFDL Model forecast turns Floyd quickly to the right after 48 hours--toward the Outer Banks of NC. (Reason #3 million why you shouldn't buy property there). The 12Z NOGAPS Model does pretty much the same thing--pulling the hurricane up the East Coast and away from Florida.

I see that many of you here do not yet trust this forecast--especially those of you in Florida who are looking down the barrel of a 145 MPH hurricane.

Remember, however, that models forecasting a right turn are usually right, and more importantly, that the NHC's current forecast goes completely against climatology--not to mention the new models.

In sum, I don't think that this is the Big One--at least for Florida anyway. And ...if the hurricane is pulled northward by the trough, it should weaken slightly before hitting the NC/VA/MD coast.

It's not that bad folks, really. Just trust the models ... but keep the car gassed just in case.

John
Atlanta


strenghtening (#11)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 08:19PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQURNVRNXV*)

Regarding Floyd losing intensity after reaching a cat 5. If it reaches cat 5,which itmay very well, I'm not sure it would have time to loose any signifigant strength.Mitch fromlast year remained quite strong for some time. Floyd will be entering an area where ocean temps are warmer. With the outflow and the continual rapid drops in pressure, he will get very close if not at a cat 5. Even a drop back to a cat 4 from a 5 would be similar to the difference between a super big gulp and a big gulp. more storm then we know what to do with...
Inland Stats (#12)
Posted by: Mike Cornelius [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: New Smyrna Beach, FL (South of Daytona, North of Cape Canaveral)
Posted On 08:20PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (VSNRRNPNRSP*)

Joe, on http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html (Crown Weather Services) There is a link to county windspeed information done by them...
Specifically http://www.crownweather.com/county.html which is a county by county prediction of winds felt. His prediction for Orange County (Orlando) is 106Mph Winds.


Check out the page for more cities and counties.

-- Mike C.
Own environment (#13)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 08:22PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUR*)

Floyd is so strong he might just bull through Florida. Gulf coast resisence better be on Alert too this week.
Regarding the stats of a landfalling 4/5 (#14)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:22PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRPR*)

I was given a very good example last night in the discussions or it could have been Friday nite. But the main thing is that if the storm comes in as a CAT 4/5 most buildings will be destroyed as far inland as 50 to 60 miles. If tornados dont get them then straightline winds will pound away til they are gone from repetitive action. If the storm is big enough it will not lose its source of heat and energy by being completely over land and that will allow it to stay on land a considerable length of time before dying down if it ever does before exiting. There is no good landmark for this if it hits the well populated central Florida. This is the most crowded this area has been in Florida history. As usual the more targets the more damage. I hope you will give this some thought while keeping calm and hoping that the storm diminishes in Category size before landfall gets very close.
Inland Wind Speed (#15)
Posted by: Joe P
Posted On 10:53PM 12-Sep-1999 with id (TNQVNQQPNRX*)

Thanks Mike and Mary for the info! I will pass it along.
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