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CFHC Talkback For News Story #112: Newest Talkback: 10:25 PM 09-29 EDT

Aye Eye Isaac
01:26 PM EDT - 23 September 2000

Isaac has been upgraded to a hurricane. An eye is now apparant on satellite photos, which means that at the next advisory Isaac will be considered a hurricane. It's future still takes it west, with the shear less of a problem than originally thought. It's still a long way away from land and it still appears that it will not affect the Leeward islands. Never the less, it must be watched.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: [NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #26 (of 26 total)

Isaac (#1)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 01:36PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQPY*)

Looks like we will have Hurricane Isaac at 5pm update.It looks like it may be a weak Hurricane
right now.I think winds are 75-80mph.Thats just my estimation.I also think they should increase the winds to near 100mph in the 72hr forecast.Looks like it will be a major Hurricane. Joe

Isaac, Helene???? (#2)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:54PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQUX*)

Well Isaac continues to get better, and i agree with the predictions that it will reach major hurricane status.
However would someone please go to the following two links and tell me what they think is happening to the 'remnants' of Helene.....
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/NorthCarolina/Wilmington/VisibleSatelliteLoop/
and
http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/SouthCarolina/Charleston/RadarLoop/
By looking at these two loops it seems as if things are increasing just off shore as the centre of the remains of Helene head back towards the coast and into the open Atlantic. Could it be that she is regenerating?

Aye Eye, Issac, ha! An eye on Issac would have also been exceptable (#3)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 02:41PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNSY*)

Richard,
to be, it looks like the center is just southe of Morehead City. it look like it is regenerating.
maybe?
Issac looks like a classic hurricane, with the bands to the north and sotuh.
It is officailly a hurricane. They already said that.
Could have 85mph at 5pm

Aye Eye, Issac, ha! An eye on Issac would have also been exceptable (#4)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 02:41PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNSY*)

Richard,
to be, it looks like the center is just southe of Morehead City. it look like it is regenerating.
maybe?
Issac looks like a classic hurricane, with the bands to the north and south.
It is officailly a hurricane. They already said that.
Could have 85mph at 5pm

Aye Eye, Issac, ha! An eye on Issac would have also been exceptable (#5)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 02:41PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNSY*)

Richard,
to me, it looks like the center is just south of Morehead City. it look like it is regenerating.
maybe?
Issac looks like a classic hurricane, with the bands to the north and south.
It is officailly a hurricane. They already said that.
Could have 85mph at 5pm

Isaac (#6)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 03:42PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQUY*)

Isaac looks like its getting stronger,I think that will refelect in the 5pm advisory.I think they will have the winds at 80-85mph in the next update.Not to much sunlight left out there so we won't have the visible much longer. Joe

LOOK AT THESE T#'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:20PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWS*)

Ok guys...look at this:

673

TPNT KGWC 231815

A. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC

B. 23/1733Z (120)

C. 14.6N/1

D. 34.1W/8

E. TWO/ME7

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0 24HRS -23/1733Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07/ PBO 15NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. EYE HAS EMERGED FROM UNDER THE CDO. MG EYE IS EMBDD 38NM INTO LG RING. WHITE RING USED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT, YIELDING A DT OF T5.0. FINAL T IS BASED ON PT. MET YIELDS T4.0. FINAL T CONSTRAINTS BROKEN.

MASSURA

Now, look at this:

CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 K (Approximate)
1.5 25 K
2 30 K 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 K 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 K 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 K 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 K 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 Kts)
4.5 77 K 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 Kts); 2 (84-96 Kts)
5 90 K 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 Kts); 3 (97-113 Kts)
5.5 102 K 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 Kts)
6 115 K 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 Kts)
6.5 127 K 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 Kts)
7 140 K 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ Kts)
7.5 155 K 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ Kts)
8 170 K 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ Kts)

If I am reading this correctly, (and I may not be) they are saying that either 1) it's already at 4.5 classification with a likelihood of developing 2.0 in 24 hours, putting at a Cat 4 in 24 hours; or 2)it's at 4.0 right now, putting it at 6.0 in 24 hours at Cat 4 or 3) they think it's 5.0 now and that would put it at 7.0 in 24 hours which would a Cat 5.

Which is it? Either way, it's strong. Comments!!!!!

Isaac (#8)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:46PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNXY*)

I can't belive it

Hurricane Isaac (#9)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:55PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNXY*)

Winds 100mph. Pressure 980mb. This is going to a VERY LARGE STORM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! jOE

Isaac, and Helene? (#10)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:16PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXWNY*)

Well i posted earlier my views on Isaac, and he is indeed intensifying rapidly... he is going to be a major storm, lets just hope he does not hit land!
And i also posted earlier that the remnants of Helene looked to be reorganising as she neared the North Carolina coast. Well now NHC have issued a Tropical DisturbanceStatement confirming this, and when the low pressure centre is near to the coast, or just offshore, i think it will become a Tropical Storm once again. winds in the area are already near gale force!

Helene Returns? (#11)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 07:30PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNTPNYP*)

The Diamond Shoals Light, NC, bouy reports winds sustained at 46 kts / 53 mph! Pressure has fallen nearly 0.2 inches in 2 hours! The centre of what was Helene should pass this area as it head out to see. However given the figures and the imagery i am a little surprised NHC have not reclassified this system! A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect on my site for the area between Cape Lookout nd the NC / VA Border, but i expect the strongest winds to not reach either of these areas but to remain somewhere in between.
Does any one else have any information on this system?

Climatology limits Isaac? Not really... (#12)
Posted by: Buffo Location: Charleston, SC
Posted On 08:38PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSTNQYNRTY*)

I've seen it posted here (and elsewhere) that many believe Isaac will not threaten land because he formed so far east of 40W. (The claim being that no storms have ever struck the east coast after forming this late in the season and also so far east...) I would like to point out that Hurricane Hugo (1989) formed slightly *FURTHER* east than Isaac did, and still managed to make it all the way to the coast. Ok - I'll grant you that Hugo formed 10 days earlier in September than Isaac did, but is that terribly significant? I don't think so. We are still in the peak of the season; I can't understand this stubborn reliance on climatology when Isaac is so close to the percieved "limits" on course track.

issac (#13)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 09:22PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNQSU*)

Issac should continue to move wnw in the next 3 days then a turn nw by monday,,,,should have little to no affect on the US,....scottsvb

Difficult to Predict the Future! (#14)
Posted by: Mitch McCauslin (http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html) Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Posted On 10:21PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RTNYUNRSQNST*)

Some people are saying it will recurve, others not so. It is just way too early to say either way! There are too many factors involved to predict whether or not Isaac will impact the Caribbean or U.S.; that is too far in the forecast period since the atmosphere is very dynamic. Yes there will be a trough that has a good chance too pull the system northward. However, don't forget that when systems become very powerful, it can modify the atmosphere around the system. There are just too many variables to say if there will be a U.S. impact or not, at this time.

isaac (#15)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 10:52PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVV*)

when it comes to predicting anything this year , you might as well toss a coin in the air to figure where things are going....

issac (#16)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 10:53PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNVV*)

is now a cat 3, this should be fun to track.

To Mitch (#17)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:07PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTX*)

I agree...these powerful systems have their own way of creating their own environments. right now, it is a game of waiting...this storm is HUGE. Anything can happen. I heard that from one longtitude to another (say 70-80 for example, is about 700 miles) so look at Isaac and do the math...it could just very well create a new weather environment of its own. Let's hope Scott is right, and it turns NW. Until it passes my lon/lat, I will be paying very close attention.

Own Environments (#18)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 11:13PM 23-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRXNVU*)

Keep in mind that very few hurricanes, even powerful hurricanes modify their own environments significantly where they steer themselves. I am not saying it hasnt happened.. I am just stating that it extremely rare.. Could this be one of those moments.. We shall see, but so far this has been a very well behaved storm.. Statistically though, the lottery probably has better odds.

Issac (#19)
Posted by: mark
Posted On 03:27AM 24-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNWTNQRP*)

many powerful hurricanes, have formed their own enviroments., Andrew 1992, Camille, gilbert, mitch,and the trof ahead of Issac is lifting out and the other disturbances ahead of him are moving west.

My point! (#20)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 05:46AM 24-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXPNQQR*)

Interesting to see how many off you have picked up on the point i first made earlier, and i think i made it on another site also, about how some powerful sysstems can modify the atmospheric environment, and go where they want to!

double negative? (#21)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:25AM 24-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQRT*)

It's probably to early to tell, but if the trough ahead of Isaac is lifting wouldn't Isaac move more westerly (still north of the Carribbean) and get sheared less.

Tropics (#22)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:13PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNQW*)

Hello All,
Well Issaic is a well defined storm but I do not see any influnce to land for several days and most likely not at all. I do see some indication that we may see another storm behind Issaic but of more concern is something in the western carribean in about 3 days or so. A upper level high is expected to develope there as a wave enters from the southeast. There are many varibles right now but just keep one eye on this area over the next 3 days.

enviroments to hurricanes (#23)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 12:46PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXXNRSV*)

Alot of people feel and think that very strong or large hurricanes change the steering flow of a hurricane...but this is not true.
Examples like Andrew had a high pressure ridge form off the east coast,,,,thats why it moved west,,,and it was predicted to form there 2 days before the then weak TS andrew was there. Also Camielle was moving N around a ridge when it came into the gulf coast states,,,and finally Opal a few years back went inland moving due NE the whole period. So these were giant storms that had no beering on a west movement. The stronger the system,,,the more of a tendency to pull Poleward will happen,,,,this is meteorogicly proven in.
A stronger system will create better outflow,,but not the more w movement. Orlandodude had a pretty good short statement also on this,,,,good job man.
Well take care all,,,so far still Issac should have no beering on the US no matter how strong he gets,,,but if we weakens enough,,,maybe a turn more west might occur around a new ridge that will build when it gets to 22-24n and 60-65W by Weds or Thurs.

SW Caribbean (#24)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 01:21PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXR*)

Though this is stretching a bit I agree with you Mark that the area in the Caribbean could produce a tropical system. This area has been forecast by some models to produce something, a visual views of this area validate some convection, and even a developing low pressure area (possibly) over NW venezuela that is moving to the NW. Heights are expected to fall in this area, and we could have a storm to contend with in the next few days. I also agree with Scott on the future of Isaac. If he weakens some he could get on a course more to the west. If this pans out , we'll have to watch him carefully. Otherwise I think he is destined for the North Atlanticas a deep trough may build into the east coast during the next week. Cheers!!

Isaac's Track (#25)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 01:26PM 24-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRSXNQWQ*)

It may not seem like there's much difference between the 10th and 20th of September...but I'm inclined to think there's more of a difference than continuity would suggest. Compare the tracks of Cape Verde storms that formed from September
1-10 to those that form from 20-30, particularly for those that reach TS intensity east of 45W, and it will all be made clear.

Like I've said, climatology isn't a rigid stick. It just gives you an idea of raw probability. Every once in a while you get a wild card that falls outside the norm...but the overall tendency holds firm. For what it's worth, the models have much more value for real-time forecasts than climatology does.

test (#26)
Posted by: Mike (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 10:25PM 29-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)

test

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