CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 04:31 PM 10-01 EDT

Category 4 Hurricane Keith Still Moving Little
07:10 AM EDT - 01 October 2000

Keith is an amazing looking system. The folks along the Yucuatan's eastern coast are getting pounded right now. Keith is just sitting and spinning in very warm waters. It's still projected to head north, over land for a bit in the Yucatan and then into the central Gulf. What else can I say besides watch the system closely. Its slow movement prevents any serious future track talk, so the Gulf needs to watch out. I do expect it to weaken a bit over land (depends on how long it stays over land too), but not enough to get it below hurricane status.

Joyce is barely holding together and moving into the Caribbean, it may strengthen slightly once in the East Caribbean waters, but for now I'll minimize its importance.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 32 total)

Amazing loop (#1)
Posted by: David (
http://†)
Posted On 08:19AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VUNSSNQWNQUT*)


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html


WOW, this storm looks awesome. Well developed eye, good out flow.
The big questions, is where is it going? My guess is that Florida Coast will be effected by the storm. This next week, there will be alot of folks holding there breath.


Keith (#2)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 10:55AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQQU*)


I still think this storm will head north today very slowly and after that we should start to see more of a turn to the NE.But even if Florida doesn't get impacted by this storm someone will.And let me tell you this it will be huge.The thinking is a least a CAT 4. Joe

Keith is annoying (#3)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:59AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRTP*)


If Keith does make the predicted turn to the north soon, than it would weaken less over the Yucatan, because its center would be very close to water.

Keith (#4)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:00AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQWW*)


This storm is playing around down there...it looks like it wants to go west, but then moves a tiny bit northward......almost looks as though it has done a cyclonic loop again today. It has been kissing the coast of the Yucatan now for almost 24 hours, and the NHC (according to Steve Lyons) is saying a n/to nw track. It will be interesting to see what actually happens down the road.

Colleen

What is suppose to send it north? (#5)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:02AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)


Does anybody have an idea of what is suppose to send this system north? I'm not real sure that is going to happen. If it keeps drifting West and stays over land for 48 hours, I see it being just about dead. And even if if it is pulled norths is it suppose to pick up speed.

very annoying (#6)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 11:02AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNST*)


i understand that the environment in the gulf is not very favorable at all. any thoughts where this will go. anyone

Gulf may become more favorable (#7)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 11:05AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQPV*)


I hear this system has created it's own high pressure system. Is this true? I think I also heard that when the front drops in around Wed. that it will make it more favorable for development. Is that true?

Keith (#8)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 11:07AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)


The movement for the past six hours has clearly been to the WSW. This does not appear to be a "wobble" or "loop". Even if there were to be a turn toward the NW or N there is a lot of land between Keith's current position and the GOM, where conditions are not favorable for intensification. We can only hope that Keith continues on his current track and rains himself out over the Yucatan.

Keith the trickster (#9)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 11:10AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNRTP*)


Does it look to anyone that Keith just made a tiny drift to the east. the NHC forecast is strange. it takes it to a 65 mph ts inland, but then up to 90 mph, while still inland.

Conditions on the Yucatan? (#10)
Posted by: Cathy Location: Bartow, FL
Posted On 11:18AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPV*)


I am so used to having Jim Cantore standing in the middle of these things. No live reports on this one though. What is the wind and weather like right now? How populated? Crops? Looks like a horrible situation.

Agree..... (#11)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 11:19AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQT*)


If Keith continues to move at a snails pace over the Yucatan it will be devistating to the storm. Conditions at the present time and for the next several days in the central and northern GOM are NOT conducive to rapid regeneration for this system even if it does survive.

Of course all of this is subject to change (and probably will...hehe) and nothing is cast in concrete, but this thing is starting to look and act more and more like Mitch.... hopefully it may be a non event for the states, if we get lucky, but regardless I just can't see this thing getting back to a Cat 4 or even 3 in the GOM if it does survive... IMO... Nevertheless, there will be a plethora of predications and assessments in the next two days and it will be fun to read them.... stay busy gang! GREAT SITE

????????????? (#12)
Posted by: cd
Posted On 11:23AM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNST*)


i think it is continuing to make that cyclonic loop. i'm still not convinced on that west movement...it's not even a movement...imo.
any thoughts?


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