CFHC Talkback For News Story #130:
Newest Talkback: 05:22 PM 10-04 EDT

Keith Back Over Water
07:29 AM EDT - 04 October 2000

Keith did not travel north into the Central Gulf as was projected by the NHC last week. They did mention this possibility, though. It's now moving west northwest over water toward the Mexican coastline. It will probably restrengthen during the day and may spawn watches or warnings on the Mexican coastline. Keith turned out to be a big problem for Belize, but for us, it may not. Mexico still will have to deal with it. In the off chance it still decides to play something strange, we'll continue to suggest the rest of the western Gulf to watch it.

Joyce won't regenerate. The low area around Florida will cause rain, and may develop slowly as it moves over water. And there's nothing else worth talking about at the moment.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Keith. From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #11 (of 11 total)

Posted by:
Posted On 08:31AM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSW*)

I don't know about Keith but Miami is under water.Many areas had well over 10" of rain.Streets and houses are flooded with alot of cars stalled out along the roads.The hardest areas seem to be near the town of Sweetwater and Hialeah. It seems like Hurricane Irene revisited without the wind.

Keith....???...who knows with this season... (#2)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 09:49AM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNQRNVYNYU*)

Keith may be moving wnw...but with this season..three distinct possibilities exist...
Keith will dissipate (unlikely)

Keith will head wnw into Mexico...stall near the coast...dump 20" of rain on hapless Mexicans and Indians living in huts, and then curve through Mexico into Texas. (most likely..but since it therefore becomes the least likely scenario)

Keith will stall in the south central to a category 5, head north...and then dissipate.... (highly it therefore becomes the most probable choice.

have a good day...and watch Keith!!!!

Comments on Keith (#3)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:15AM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQPS*)

I fully concur with the NHC's latest track; since the track has been consistently shifted left, I wouldn't be surprised if Keith makes landfall even farther south than forecast. Keith doesn't have much more time over water; I doubt he'll be able to build much more, though reintensification to hurricane strength is a possibility. If that happens, I don't see this becoming more than a cat 1.

disturbance over florida (#4)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 01:09PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

I just heard on the news that there was a recon flight going in to see if we have a td off of daytona beach. Does anyone have any #'s or other info, on what the flight found?

Recon (#5)
Posted by: StormHound ( Location: O-Town
Posted On 01:51PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

If I'm reading the Recon plan correctly, they haven't gone out there yet. Looks like they plan on taking a look at the area which has moved through Florida and is now mostly off the coast, as well as taking a peek at the remnants of Joyce to see if anything is re-developing there. Good source of info on recons is at

web site (#6)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:39PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

That is a really great website Stormhound. Thanks for the smiles that you've brought to me, especially on their cyberflight.

td? daytona (#7)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 02:58PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

Is there a easy way to convert 29.95 pressure to mb? I can't figure out how to convert it. On a more positive note. Has anyone seen the rotation around Daytona? The pressure has gone from 29.95 at 10am to 29.90 at 2pm. Could that be a sign?

Conversion from " to mb. (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 03:30PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNRTQNQS*)

Multiply inches by 33.86 to get the equivalent in millibars. Similarly, divide millibars by that number to get the pressure in inches.

cool thanxs jj (#9)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 03:33PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

Thanks much JJ, I couldn't figure it out....

16L? (#10)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 04:26PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

check out nrl monterrey. theyve got a system called 16L initialized just off st. augustine, right where that low is. since our last depression was 15L.. well, this suggests a depression has formed. st. augustine, last i checked.. n winds at 12 kt, pressure 29.89... or 1012 mb. swirl shows up nice on vis.. but on IR it looks lame. convection is all to the east.. anybody know what the shear forecast is east of georgia and the carolinas?
on another note.. nrl monterrey is also tracking that system west of the cape verdes.. 93L i believe. the parent wave has been offshore for five days now.. if anything comes of this it wont make it very far west.. unless a ridge builds.

16L (#11)
Posted by: Rick Location: Delray Bch FL
Posted On 05:22PM 04-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNRTPNRRQNWP*)


NRL would not give me access for some reason(?) So I went to GHCC.

Yes the vis shows it clearly, but did you see the wv?

It appears that the center of circulation is in the dry side. !!!

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