CFHC Talkback For News Story #30:
Newest Talkback: 11:28 PM 08-04 EDT

When Will it Start?
02:05 PM EDT - 25 July 2000

Last year we did not see any named storms (outside of Arlene in June) until the 18th of August (with Bret, which formed in the Gulf as a major hurricane, making landfall in a nearly deserted part of the Texas coast) It looks like this year will be along those same lines, although I expect a named storm before the 18th this year. Not in July, though.

There are hints and maybes out in the Atlantic now, but at the moment nothing seems a sure bet to form. The forecasting models are not picking up anything that would last either.

Rumors have it that Dr. Gray and Co will be lowering their predictions by a hair. (Possibly by one named storm). Even so, it still would be predicted a slightly more active than an average year. Last year we wound up with 12 named storms. From Arlene to Lenny, which was unexpected. This also brings up the fact that even though we haven't seen much yet, it does NOT mean it will not be a dangerous year for the storms.

Satellite images at:
[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
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- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #4 - #6 (of 24 total)

LATE SEASON (#4)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: MIAMI FL
Posted On 07:00PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNVS*)


Just like last year this one will start late. La Nina is fading but it probably won't be gone till late in the year, completely. That is one factor of a little above the average besides many others.I think there will be some mean Hurricanes out there late in the season.Well, that's just my theory.

Waves (#5)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 07:04PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSQ*)


Yeah, I had to think about it, I knew we at least got to Lenny. Anyhow, we've got another strong wave off the coast of Africa.....Let's see if this one survives. It appears to have a circulation...but so did the other ones. cheers.

Could it be? (#6)
Posted by:
Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: England, UK
Posted On 07:05PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQSQ*)


I agree with Mark. The wave off africa does not show much atm. But the AVN and FNMOC models, to name just two, indicate a developing system from this wave within 72 hours. I also notice that NHC have mentioned this in their latest outlook (5:30pm, 25-07-00). I still hold to my beleif we will have a named storm by the end of july, or at least a developing TD.

Models (#7)
Posted by:
Mike C. [CFHC] (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 07:43PM 25-Jul-2000 with id (RTNRNUSNVY*)


The models, especially the AVN are indeed interesting. But this is on the far end of the forecast timewise. I said this yesterday for another system, but if it still looks this way tomorrow, then yes it is pretty likely. IMHO. If not... :)



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