CFHC Talkback For News Story #32:
Newest Talkback: 07:29 PM 08-03 EDT

One more day in July
07:38 PM EDT - 30 July 2000

July coming to an end, no named storms. Thanks to all 180+ voters who participated in the survey (The Rest of July). The Atlantic is starting to fire-up, I think we are in for a busy August and September. Let’s start hearing those predictions for August in the comments section. I have not had time to study any of the models yet, so I will leave the predictions up to you all.
Although we do not monitor the Pacific, I would like to mention that hurricane Daniel has been downgraded to a tropical storm and that a tropical storm warning remains in effect of the islands of Maui County and for the Island of Hawaii and is issued for the Oahu including the city of Honolulu. Effective at 11am hst.

satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Comments? Use the comment button by the story Headline.

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 24 total)
look in "models" (#1)
Posted by: richard Location: melbourne
Posted On 10:12PM 30-Jul-2000 with id (VSNRUTNQPPNUX*)

please read my apology to you guys in the previous section.thanks!
Tropical Development (#2)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 07:23AM 31-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNUT*)

Hello All,
Well again we are looking at an increasing bubbling in the Atlantic. There is a new wave comming off of Africa this weekend that looks very interesting and I believe the best bet for a tropical system this week. The other is the low and mid level swirl at 15n-43w and now pressures have fallen to 1009 mb and even a very little thunderstorm development to the south of the center. Both of these systems have a good chance but the one off of Africa has the best chance.
The swirl at 15n-43w is now getting very close to water temp. at 80-82 degrees so this may be the missing factor it needs to develope. I do believe we will see more from the NHC over the next 48 hours of possible development in the Alantic.
I agree with you Mark (#3)
Posted by: Richard Byett (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 08:19AM 31-Jul-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNQQQ*)

It does look like the Atlantic may indeed be about to produce something worth our attention. Like Mark says there are signs that both systems in the Atlantic may develop.
The wave just off Africa does of some cyclonic curvature and the convection is widespread and moderate.
But the wave and low along 43W still looks like it has the better chance to me. It is about to enter warmer SST's and it has maintained a tight cyclonic swirl. As it moves over warmer waters the convection may well increase, and there are signs of this already. The pressure is already down to 1009mb too!
However i would still watch the Caribbean and Gulf. The AVN model shows something developing from the wave in the Western Caribbean, and then heading north off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours it brings it to the south of the Louisianna coast. This could be an interesting few days now!
Tropical Update (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 02:22PM 31-Jul-2000 with id (QRNWWNQWWNQV*)

Hello All,
Well there is only a few new things to report since this mourning mainly with the wave at 14n..45w.. Pressure is at 1010mb but the new report is showers and a few thunderstorms have started to develope near the center and to the south. Its only a little but it has increased since this mournings satellite so it may be the sign its entering warmer waters and maybe starting to develope just a bit. We will have to see if it continues over night. If it does we may have a TD over the next 48 hours. No models have picked this up but I haven't been too excited with what the models have been showing so far this year so I would say watch this wave closely.

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