As the Season Starts...
12:52 PM EDT - 03 June 2001
The season has started off uneventful, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a mass of clouds there that could form if the weather conditions above it were better. Thankfully they aren't, so nothing will form. It will bring some rain to South Florida though, which is a welcome change.
On Average a storm forms in June every other year, so in that respect (statistically) we are due for one. I don't think we will though. The Atlantic is looking about as average as average can get this year. We will see in the later season when this pattern will take hold or not. I do think the chances of a land falling system are slightly greater this year than last even though the number of storms is projected to be average. Even then, the most likely place is along the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina. The Gulf just slightly less. As many people note, it only takes one system to turn an otherwise average year into one for the books.
Gary Gray over at Millennium Weather has put out his 2001-- Seasonal Forecast, he predicts one less than William Gray in the number of storms. Citing analog years in the past that compare to this year. He makes the point that Dr William Gray at Colorado State does the best job with the predictions, and I definitely agree.
On Friday I had a good short conversation on Jim William's Hurricane City / WABN Audio Show. I thank him for letting me speak a little about this season and what we do. Jim did a great job with his 3 hour season opener show.