CFHC Talkback For News Story #4:
Newest Talkback: 04:50 PM 04-16 EDT

National Hurricane Conference 2002
09:29 AM EDT - 04 April 2002 | One hundred twenty-nine Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 04:50 PM 04-16 EDT



The National Hurricane Conference is going on this week here in Orlando, and one of the things to come out of it was the expectation of a rather average year (storm count wise), which I agree with.

It's been a while since a Major Hurricane has hit Florida now, it'll be 10 years since Andrew this season. Complacency may have set in among many, and I fear this may be the case again.

September 11th gave extra focus to Emergency Management, and I think they are about as reasonably prepared as the could be. The evacuation routes from the coastline are still very poor, and the road system in Central Florida can't handle normal work traffic well, much less a massive evacuation. They've talked about one-waying the main roads (I4/Turnpike/Beeline etc) during emergencies. But that requires a lot of manpower to make sure no "oopses" happen at the entrance on/off ramps.

I expect a different hurricane season this year... This doesn't mean more or even more landfalls, just storms in different places than we have seen in the last two years. I actually expect fewer this year.

Preperations for the new season are progressing slowly, but we'll get there. :)

- [mac]




Post a comment | Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #88 - #108 (of 129 total)

SST's (#88)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 02:49PM 10-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
Does the water temp NEED to be 80 or above or can something form if the SST's are a degree or two cooler than 80? Just wondering.


Palms (#89)
Posted by: No Name
Posted On 04:13PM 10-Apr-2002 with id (VUNSUNWPNRST*)
Have you hugged a Teddy Bear Palm today?


A Few Answers!!! (#90)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 04:39PM 10-Apr-2002 with id (VVNQUWNVXNQVR*)
#1 A tropical storm has developed in each month at least one time. There was one offseason storm in April. Yes, it was subtropical. Here is a forecast track graphic:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/SUBTROP_1/track.gif

#2 The convection you see in the Gulf is related to an upper level disturbance. There is no chance of this low developing any further. The shear in that area is about 40 knots, ssts are still a little too cool for development and there is a lot of subsidence on the western side. In addition, this low is only subtropical at best.

#3 The sea surface doesn't have to be 80 degrees for a tropical storm to develop. Other conditions would have to be very favorable for development to sustain the system. Usually, when storms develop under these conditions, they never become truely tropical. Conditions just aren't there for any developmant at this time.

#4 The best chance for any kind of development over the next week would be from the low in the central Atlantic. However, chances for that are less than 1% in my opinion.


Posting (#91)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 05:57PM 10-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
WOW!! 91 postings and we are a month and a half away from the start of hurricane season.I can only imagine what it will be like when there is actually some activity to talk about.


Why can't it be June?? (#92)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 08:14PM 10-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
The activity in the GOM is firing up again.If it would have just waiting a little longer the elements may have been in favor of some development,but it is just too early.Maybe we'll have convection like that on June 1 and then we can have something to talk about.


Boring and wait until June 1, 2002 ?? (#93)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 04:41AM 11-Apr-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*)
SAME NUMBER HERE

There are 50 days until Atlantic hurricane season.

Hawaii is our 50th state !!! lol


Rain!!! (#94)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 12:45PM 11-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
It looks like some places along the gulf coast are going to get quite alot of rain today and tonight with that weak upper low in the north GOM.


weird stuff (#95)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 04:00PM 11-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
the gulf low just off louisiana and the cutoff near 27/50 are amusing to watch. they would both be of much interest if it weren't april.


HankFrank (#96)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 04:06PM 11-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I've been watching them all day,too.It is about the only thing worth looking at right now.June can't come too soon for me!


Here too (#97)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:54PM 11-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQVQ*)
Heavy rain in South Florida yesterday and today. It looks like summer now. I surprised !!!


2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#98)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:53AM 12-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNRQ*)
SAME NUMBER HERE

There are 49 days until hurricane season

Alaska is our 49th state!! lol


El Nino (#99)
Posted by:
Lonny Location: Hollywood Fl.
Posted On 08:10AM 12-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQWQ*)
They say in the morning paper that we could feel the effects on El Nino by July. I don't even see a mild El Nino yet. I think there jumping the gun a little early.


#100 (#100)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 12:19PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
Not much to say;just wanted to be #100 on the postings.I'll be back when things start to heat up.


el nino and low (#101)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 02:28PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
just look at the sst anomaly map. warm pool west of peru, mild plume extending west along the equator. doesnt have to be 1997 with 5 degree anomalies over half the pacific for it to be el nino.
anyway, surprised nobody is yakking about that low off the alabama coast. pretty good radar signature, but not really tropical. not your run of the mill extratropical low either. if it deepens any id bet on it being a subtrop.


HankFrank (#102)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 02:46PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I see what you are saying about the low off the Alabama coast,but I don't think it will deepen because it is too close to land and before too long it will cross over into the Atlantic where the waters are even colder.Do you think it has a shot at deepening into a subtrop?


Low (#103)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:24PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNQYT*)
Its providing FL with some welcome rains. Considering this is are driest month at least in Tampa. Models keep this upper low spinning in ne gulf through Sunday then it gets kicked east by the S/W which will pass to north. Don't think theres any chance of it developing.


well (#104)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 04:08PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
looks closed, slowly spinning nnw off baldwin co alabama. lowest sfc obs i saw was 1017mb, some 20-25kt winds out there. not really changing much, just a weak semi-convective low. ssts are near 70 near the coast and environment is warm but this would need a cutoff cold core upper environment to develop warm core inside, and the upper low around it isnt all that cold... probably cant sustain anything more than what you see.


Boating (#105)
Posted by: cane man Location: St. Petersburg
Posted On 04:16PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (RPYNRRPNRTWNSR*)
Suppose to go boating tomorrow. Does anyone know if this little system will be gone by AM tomorrow? Thanks for any help. Getting pretty good rains here-started about an hour ago and looks stacked up just offshore.


Cane Man (#106)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 05:31PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (VVNQYNWWNUW*)
Looked over NWS Tampa marine forecast. For this weekend... Winds 10 to 15 kts...seas 2 to 3 feet...scatered mainly late day and evening showers and storms. Weak impulses will ride around the upper/sfc low in NE Gulf. So showers and storms may pop up at any time. Looked over RUC model and has the next impulse rotating in early Sat morning. Hope this helps.


Rainy here in central Florida. (#107)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 11:11PM 12-Apr-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNYQNRRQ*)
It's rained on and off here all day. I was at school and at about 11 it started raining. Cloudy and cool as well. All of this is from a little cutoff low in the GOMEX. Absolutely no chance of subtropical development, much less tropical development. Sure is an interesting feature, though. Now, if it were late May the little low might have done something different...


No rain! (#108)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 12:05AM 13-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I just want some rain so I can have something to look at while I pass the time away while waiting for June 1.It doesn't appear like that is going to happen anytime soon,though.Dry as a bone.


Enjoy and same number (#109)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 01:17AM 13-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNSQ*)
There are 48 days until Atlantic hurricane season

Arizona is our 48th state!



Post a comment | Show All Comments | Show Next 21 Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments


Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page