CFHC Talkback For News Story #41:
Newest Talkback: 09:31 PM 06-09 EDT

More Predictions Wave
08:30 AM EDT - 07 June 2001

Dr Gray and his team at Colorado State University has updated his forecast to include two more (12 total) named storms. One of these has already occured. He's added one more hurricane and one more major Hurricane. This is due to factors such as colder than expected Pacific temperatures (La Nada), and more.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Colorado State University / Dr. William Gray		 Mean Average
Year

07-June-2001
Forecast
Named Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 9.3 12
Named Storm Days 46.9 60
Hurricanes 5.8 7
Hurricane Days 23.7 30
Intense Hurricanes (Cat 3+) 2.2 3
Intense Hurricane Days 4.7 5


Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Predictions are finally up.

Allison is hanging around in its former area and may drift southward. There is a small chance that it could actually redevelop if it gets back over the Gulf. *small chance*, but I'm mentioning it because it even forming was interesting to me in the first place.

A few other waves in the Central Atlantic are there, and they are strong for this time of. Climatology suggests they will not form, and that's what I think. However, as they slide into the Caribbean they will have to be watched. Allison has sparked a major resurgence of justified wave mongering. The spark, if you will. An interesting June for once. Steve H. made a very good comment on the previous article that may have to be taken into account. The next few days will be telling of that.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #5 (of 26 total)
Added (#1)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 12:02PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (RPXNVSNQVVNQXY*)

I added back the Texas area statements since techincally Allison is still a depression and it it's being a real pain in that area right now.

The chances of it redeveloping are slim, but I'm NOT going to rule it out. (Wouldn't be surprised if it did)

Allison (#2)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:56PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Agree Mike, Allison is heading SSW now and could be a player again. As a minimum she will comtinue drenching Texas and Louisiana. Woudn't ya know it that just when I was giving that wave in the atlantic a shot it lost its circulation. Figures. But it is still strong wave and should be watched, and especially his big brother behind him in the east atlantic. WOW, that's a wave! Cheers!!
allison/next week (#3)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:50PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNWQ*)

i remember alberto back in '94 and danny in '97 as keeping their surface circulations intact over land for a decent period of time, and danny actually made it back to sea. interesting of note, the allison of '89, also in east texas, remnant low drifted around about a hundred miles inland for almost a week. the mrf and nogaps move allison's remnant low back to the coast around victoria and along it to corpus.. but a weak low with little steering could easily redevelop in the feeder bands to the east, over water. so, by no means write allison off. i give it sixty-forty of still being a discrete (and weak) tropical entity early next week. as for early next week, watch the current front over the ohio valley.. the trough will settle out off the east coast and decay, maybe set something off east of florida. nogaps and the mrf are hinting at this, so it's worth keeping in mind. just model mongering, as is often said at cfhc. also, anybody see that wave the just moved off africa. pretty perky bugger. everybody'd be chattering about it, if it were august 20th. i know what they say about march, but what happens when june comes in like a lion?
Invest (#4)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 04:29PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Our Wave in the far East Atlantic has been immediately put on the INVEST Mont Lab page, as well it should. Looks like some circulation there. Might be our 2nd depression soon. Cheers!!
Wave (#5)
Posted by: Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 05:08PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYRNQYSNQSW*)

Yes, it is looking more and more potent as we speak !
Yep (#6)
Posted by: SirCane Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 06:39PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRT*)

I wouldn't write off Allison yet either! That monster off Africa sure is something for this time of year! Looks like a Tropical Depression already!
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