CFHC Talkback For News Story #41:
Newest Talkback: 05:31 PM 06-09 EDT

More Predictions Wave
08:30 AM EDT - 07 June 2001

Dr Gray and his team at Colorado State University has updated his forecast to include two more (12 total) named storms. One of these has already occured. He's added one more hurricane and one more major Hurricane. This is due to factors such as colder than expected Pacific temperatures (La Nada), and more.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast
Colorado State University / Dr. William Gray
Mean Average
Year

07-June-2001
Forecast

Named Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 9.3 12
Named Storm Days 46.9 60
Hurricanes 5.8 7
Hurricane Days 23.7 30
Intense Hurricanes (Cat 3+) 2.2 3
Intense Hurricane Days 4.7 5


Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Predictions are finally up.

Allison is hanging around in its former area and may drift southward. There is a small chance that it could actually redevelop if it gets back over the Gulf. *small chance*, but I'm mentioning it because it even forming was interesting to me in the first place.

A few other waves in the Central Atlantic are there, and they are strong for this time of. Climatology suggests they will not form, and that's what I think. However, as they slide into the Caribbean they will have to be watched. Allison has sparked a major resurgence of justified wave mongering. The spark, if you will. An interesting June for once. Steve H. made a very good comment on the previous article that may have to be taken into account. The next few days will be telling of that.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #26 (of 26 total)

Yep (#6)
Posted by: SirCane Location: Pensacola, FL
Posted On 06:39PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRT*)


I wouldn't write off Allison yet either! That monster off Africa sure is something for this time of year! Looks like a Tropical Depression already!

allison (#7)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 08:48PM 07-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSXNQQR*)


Allison will not come back.Its over land and
its very usual for the circultion to become
more profond went a system does enter land,but its winds lesson dramaticlly. Allison is heading
deeper into land and should turn and head more
east across the southern coast states.
Eastern Atlantic wave looks impressive but it
should be just like last year at this time
with the waves weakening while heading west.
1 Of the waves has a chance to make it into the
carribean by next week and by the end of next
week have a chance to form maybe into a stronger
system by then. SVB

Allison hangs on (#8)
Posted by:
Richard Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England
Posted On 03:02PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNQSWNQVT*)


Well the remnants of Allison are continuing to slowly head towards the coast. Interesting to see convection increasing to the south of the Louisiana coast in association with the remnant low. CMAN stations have recently been reporting an increase in sustained winds along the upper Texas coast and the Louisianna coast. If the circulation can hold, and it gets a little closer to the coast, we may see some redevelopment of this system as it draws in moisture from the gulf. We'll have to wait and see.

off texas (#9)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 03:14PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQUQ*)


i just looked at the latest military sat pics of the gom what is off the tx coast it looks like circulation in the water... or is that just a feeder band?

off texas (#10)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 03:15PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQUQ*)


i just looked at the latest military sat pics of the gom what is off the tx coast it looks like circulation in the water... or is that just a feeder band?

off texas (#11)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 03:15PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQUQ*)


i just looked at the latest military sat pics of the gom what is off the tx coast it looks like circulation in the water... or is that just a feeder band?

NO (#12)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 09:26PM 08-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNRPW*)


No more development with Allison. Its been
over.Nothing real interesting till next week
at the least.

back from the dead? (#13)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:24AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQX*)


dont write allison off just yet. the low center has crossed south of i-10 again, and is only about fifty miles from the coast.. whereas it was 150 miles inland up near lufkin and nacogdoches about 48 hours ago. the convection near the immediate center has died away (a good 'feeder band' is dousing the houston area right now), but if it crosses back into the ocean, down at port lavaca on matagorda bay should it hold it's present southerly course... it could then very well redevelop a cdo and reintensify. we've all seen stranger things happen. the remnant low should meander around coastal texas and kick off diurnal convection for the next few days, at very least. twc and the plurality of models have a trough clearing the area of precip by.. well, next wednesday. 'lot could happen between now and then.

bouys (#14)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 11:37AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQTX*)


take a look a the bouy data in the western gulf... the winds have steadily incrased since yesterday.

allison close to regeneration (#15)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 11:42AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXT*)


the 9am disturbance statement says that the nhc will pick up advisories again should allison move back out over water. right now the center is very near palacios, about ten northeast of port lavaca. eh, i was close. i'm guessing that the low center will get its feet wet by 1pm central. what's interesting is that some convection is sparking near the low center again. might be the start of a new lease on life for allison. none of the models are initializing a healthy low on the texas coast, so the future behavior of a new allison is pretty vague. probably just keep drifting around.

Maybe? (#16)
Posted by:
Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 11:43AM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYRNQYSNWR*)


I dunno , But looks to me as if it is moving back out over the Gulf ??

recon (#17)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 12:01PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQTX*)


just checked the plan of the day for recon flights... can someone explain this to me?

Depression (#18)
Posted by:
Rick Davis (http://www.flhurricane.com/rad/) Location: St. Petersburg FL
Posted On 12:02PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYRNQYSNWR*)


THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF "ALLISON" WAS
CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 95.8 W...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALACIOS JUST INLAND
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A SOUTHEAST DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY...
BRINGING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 1007 MB...29.73 INCHES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 15 MPH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS....WHILE THEY HAVE
INCREASED TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS NOTED WERE 35 MPH AT SEA RIM STATE PARK ALONG
THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST.


recon (#19)
Posted by: matt
Posted On 12:14PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (SXNSQNQTYNQTX*)


just checked the plan of the day for recon flights... can someone explain this to me?

Matt (#20)
Posted by: Gary B Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 12:40PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNQVTNVNYY*)


check out this site for recon info
http://www.nc.noaa.gov/aoc/data/vortexdata.htm

Looks like it may happen (#21)
Posted by:
John c. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL (Currently)
Posted On 12:46PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNYUNRTPNQQV*)


unbelievable. And Texas does not need more rain. Mike will probably update soon.

Allison (#22)
Posted by: Gary B Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:08PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RTNQVTNVNYY*)


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM ALLISON 01L



INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 9



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 29.0 95.5

6 29.0 95.3 99./ 1.7

12 28.5 95.5 204./ 4.7

18 28.4 95.6 202./ 1.8



STORM DISSIPATED AT 18 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.




Note (#23)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 02:21PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNTT*)


Allison's center is moving offshore now...recovery, if any, will be slow.

Mike, I'm pretty sure I made a post here last night. Where'd it go?

westerlies (#24)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:09PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYS*)


looking at the satpics has me thinking that any redeveloped cyclone is going to have to deal with shear in the short term. the large band of precip east of the system isnt being wrapped around the weak low core so much as it is being slung up into the tx/la coast. in spite of any reintensification, a lot of locations along the middle gulf coast are going to have 20'+ storm totals.

ALLISON (#25)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD
Posted On 04:00PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPV*)


I just looked at the latest wator vapor loop it looks like she is still on land at the moment but should head SSE. My prayers go out to those people in Texas and Lousiana. I saw some reports of over 20" near Houston. The first name is already causing devastation and the season just begun.

sloppy (#26)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 05:31PM 09-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYS*)


no 5pm advisory, the nhc outlook says. ive seen them classify less defined systems before, but not a bad call. it's been over land for so long.. that former allison is really a mess. a clear cut surface center will have to take over before the system is reclassified. i'd put money on the one just off palacios, which is essentially the original system in a much weakened state. as for future track, twc is hinting at an eastward drift for the next few days, with lots of rain in store for louisiana. past time to break out the canoes.


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