CFHC Talkback For News Story #47:
Newest Talkback: 02:30 AM 07-01 EDT

Droughtbusters!
09:47 AM EDT - 26 June 2001

There is a tropical wave approaching south Florida now that will give us more much needed rain, and hopefully less lightning. It will start in south Florida and move northward, hopefully giving us a good soaking. We are still at drought levels despite all the afternoon storms. The storms have been lightning intense also.

My development potential scale for the wave approaching florida: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-*--------------------]


The wave in the Caribbean is still there, but I doubt it will survive much longer.

My development potential scale for the wave in the Caribbean now: 

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--*-------------------]


Let's all wave to our friends the droughbusters.



NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #26 (of 26 total)
TAKE A LOOK (#1)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 01:30PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQUQ*)

LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM IN THE BAHAMAS IS TRYING TO BECOME MORE THAN A WAVE / STORMS ARE BLOWING UP IN A CIRCLE PATTERN / WINDS IN ORLANDO ARE COMING IN FROM THE EAST RIGHT NOW, IF NOTHING OTHER THAN A WAVE , THE RAIN WILL BE GREAT
Bahamas (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 01:41PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPX*)

I agree, Nick...even the NHC is monitoring this system. It hasn't moved all that much. Look up in the sky...do you see the milky white clouds? That reminds me of any other wave/system that has come knocking at our door. We'll have to watch this one carefully.

And yes...if it turn out to be nothing more than a wave..THANKS FOR THE RAIN!!! :-)

Colleen
bahamas (#3)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 02:17PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

if you look at the infrared and the water vapor it looks like it is trying to build up into something. Does anyone else think that? Remember I am new so, I need the extra guidance if I am indeed wrong. Thanks: Gary
It's Possible, Gary (#4)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 02:45PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQXR*)

It is possible that it could turn into something more than a wave. However, I am not an expert either, and I wouldn't try to give a percentage at what chance I think it would have at developing. Just remember...TWD at 2:05pm was (and always is) based on the satellite pictures from 12:00 UTC. They just described this as a "mid-level" circulation or low. The fact that it hasn't moved much is a concern, and although the pressures haven't dropped much (according to TWO at 11:30am), that doesn't mean they won't. It is definitely something to keep your eye on, because if it DOES develop...it could be something we are not expecting. Remember the Gulf Stream is not all that far away...
Hope that helps...Colleen :-)
E FL Coast (#5)
Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 04:21PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNVVNRTW*)

Well i agree with you also. The 'wave' is accompanied by a mid level low, but the latest sat pics indicate increasing convection in association with this 'wave'. Will be interestingh to see what the NHC's 5.30pm TWO says shortly. Keep on eye on this area!

Rich
convection (#6)
Posted by: solar
Posted On 04:21PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNTW*)

I don't what I'm really talking about but what is that large area of convection in the western Gulf? Is this anything at all?
TWO @ 5:30pm (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 05:54PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQXT*)

Richard....notice the difference in their outlook from 11:30? It is now say "is CURRENTLY not expected." Before, I believe it just said, "not expected". What does that tell you? They're not sure either....even though the pressures are remaining high, I think they MIGHT be a little more concerned about development than earlier.

Than again...I am not an expert, lol!!!!

Colleen
Hello strangers (#8)
Posted by: k___g Location: Orlando
Posted On 06:26PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RTNRWNRRSNUS*)

Well, it's great to be back for another season of discussion with you all. Glad to see Colleen is still around....is Mike Anderson still posting?
Hey K_____G!!!! (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 06:31PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNRS*)

Yes I am still around....I'll never leave!! LOL! And yes, Mike is still posting....there's a link to his website here...see ya later!!!

Colleen :-)
Heavy Rain Here!!! (#10)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 06:48PM 27-Jun-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQTU*)

Severe Storms continue to move in from the west. I was looking at the nexrad radar out of Melbourne and boy was there a lot of rain offshore heading slowly west. Will something form out of this wave not to confident but won't rule it out for sure!
only trades, no barrys (#11)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:46AM 28-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQPU*)

for all of the convection around florida and in the sw gulf, every reporting station i checked was showing a breeze from the east. just the trades, no incipient lows, no really persistent convection. shear keeps killing everything, the usual in june. with one june storm already, the chances of another are about 1 in 20.. that said, i'll probably still find myself eyeing the next convective ball that hangs around for 36 hours.. every now and then one of these teasers will become for real.
shouldnt have to wait more than a month for that to happen, i s'pose.. then come all the jokes and analogies to barry bonds.
Well, Here's a Blob (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 08:35AM 28-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYQ*)

..to watch. In the W GOMEX. It looks pretty intense this morning, the cloud tops look pretty cold for this early in the morning. Of course, I have to say that I honestly don't know about the shear out there or any troughs that would push it inland over Mexico or anywhere else. I'm just telling you what I see. And, it could be just a "blob" for all I know.

Colleen
Gulf Convection/ shear (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:57AM 28-Jun-2001 with id (VTNRTTNQNUP*)

The convection in Gulf is being sheared some with shear running west to east at around 10 to 20 kt. I thought the convection in the gulf would have been gone by now but it flared up again this morning. I don't think its much to worry about. But when ever you see convection in the Gulf this time of the year it has to be watched. Just took a look at the North American analysis and it appears the convection in the Gulf is with a Tropical Wave in the southwestern Gulf.
gulf convection (#14)
Posted by: doug Location: tampa
Posted On 12:48PM 28-Jun-2001 with id (VUNSTNVVNQVP*)

latest vivible loop seems to show a convergence of convection in the 25n-81w vicinity..but all pressures remain relatively high by all indications...radar confirms a lot of activity in Florida Bay nnw of keywest, and much of the moisture in SW florida being pulled into that region, hence less than expected rainfall over SW Florida today considering the proxmity of the wave... probably means nothing though. EDS>
This is Interesting..... (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 01:03PM 28-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSX*)

(well to me, anyway)...I just got back from Publix where I saw a guy pull up at the same time I did with a satellite dish? on the back of his truck, all kinds of antennae, a yellow light that would flash, and a big search light. Well..I figured out on my own that he must be some sort of storm chaser or work for the NWS (aren't I bright?) and sure enough, there was a sticker on the back of his truck that said, "SKYWARN" ...so I stopped him and asked him a couple of questions. He was very nice. Then I said, "What do you think it will be like later this afternoon?" He said, "Well...it's heating up out here, there's lots of moisture in the air, and convection to our East. I'd say there's a good chance of rain." We both busted out laughing, but then he said, "Seriously...this could lead to more of the same type of storms we had Tuesday night." Ha. You learn something everyday at Publix. :-)
Colleen
colleen (#16)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 08:55PM 28-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXV*)

you are too funny, great story!!!!
Glad You Liked It! (#17)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 10:24PM 28-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVY*)

Well..it's quiet out there, so I just thought I would share that little tidbit with you all.

It beats the heck out of telling the story to myself. :-)

Colleen
ok (#18)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 11:03AM 29-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSYNQWU*)

Ok well maybe if the system that cut across
florida the last 24 hrs was about 400 miles east
of where it was 2 days ago,thern maybe it could
of developed. Well Im not going to get my
depression 2 right now, but the only area
of interest is not the Gulf but in the eastern
Atlantic around 14.5N and 36.8W moving W near
17mph. It has little to no thunderstorms but
does have a well defined low pressure system
with it with showers. If it make it by sunday
evening to the west near 52W with the swirl
intact then it could be our next depression
by hten or when it gets to the western Carribean.
Right now I say its a 4/10 so Im not going to
say yes this is a depression by then but if
I give it over a 5 then quote me. Check out
the vis sat pictures of this and the loops esp.

scottsvb
NCEP (#19)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 03:27PM 29-Jun-2001 with id (RPYNTNTSNUV*)

A

SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO PUERTO RICO. THE LOW

IS THEN TO RELOCATE TO 24N 71W BY 72 HRS. AT 500 HPA IT REFLECT

AS AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AT 24 HRS..

WITH A LOW TO CLOSE N OF HISPANIOLA BY 48 HRS. THE ADDITIONAL

INFLOW OF ENERGY WILL TRIGGER ISLD CONVECTION OVER ERN CUBA-

JAMAICA UNTIL 36 HRS..AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND

PUERTO RICO..PARTICULARLY IN THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.. WITH A GOOD

CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN INTERACTION WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE

CONVERGENCE. ALSO..THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION

BUILDING JUST S OF THE UPPER LOW..WITH SOME CELLS WRAPPING

AROUND THE CENTER. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL POLAR ENERGY

THIS SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE INTO A WARM CORE SYSTEM AT A LATER

DATE..BUT THUS FAR THE MDLS DO NOT CONTEMPLATE THIS OUTCOME.



Thanks, Gary (#20)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 03:52PM 29-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSW*)

I take it that this is the system that's come off the Western tip of Florida? Have you taken a look at the visible loops of the northern GOMEX? That's interesting also...although there is shear evident, I do see some potential for this "blob"..it looks as though a center is trying to form (especially on the visible) but that most of the action is to the east and north of it...take a look and let me know what you think! Thanks...Colleen :-)
One More Thing..... (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 04:14PM 29-Jun-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNSW*)

Has anyone noticed the system that is just about to come off the African coast? It looks to me as if it already has a circulation to it, if you watch it on the IR loops...very interesting. You can almost see a little bit of rotation in the outflow clouds. Any thoughts?

Ok..now I'll shutup so you guys can answer all my questions. :-)

Colleen
jibberjabber (#22)
Posted by: HankFrank
Posted On 08:25PM 29-Jun-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXV*)

in the last day y'all have mentioned just about everything out there.. colleen, the thing gary is pointing out is an upper trough that is forecast to close off into an upper low.. it's north of the islands. you can see it out on vapor.. just a convection enhancer. i liked your story.. nothing neat happens at the publix up here. no thoughts on the africa wave, i dont feel like loading another loop. the wave scott mentioned is pretty well cut.. just not a lot of convection. theres another one ahead of it.. pretty well defined too, but no convection either. the gulf wave is by far the most interesting thing out there.. pretty good signature in the pressure field, kink in the trade winds, looked sort of like a greek lambda on the visible earlier. the convective mass to the west is going to crash into it later tonight, gotta watch and see if it stirs something up.
3 in 10. i know, lots of shear, but every now and then..
Look North, Friends! (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 11:35AM 30-Jun-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNQWT*)

Ok...WAKE UP!!!! Look to the North of PR...seems to be a little "twisting and turning" there....a good area of convection, but most of it to the east of what looks to be a circulation center (not a llcc....yet)..if it stays there much longer (say 1 or 2 days) does anyone think it may have a chance at developing at the surface?

Have a great day!

Colleen :-)
na (#24)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 02:34PM 30-Jun-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSYNRTP*)

Hi colleen, upper level low to me. Still lets watch my area I said near 14.5N and 44W now.
HPC Discussion (#25)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 03:59PM 30-Jun-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPR*)

Well, Scott, you may be right, but then again, this may have potential. I have learned to never write anything off...especially tropical activity. Remember Irene? Was suppossed to go into the Western part of Florida, most people thought it would, and it ended up slamming Miami. Never say "never"....

Here's a link to yesterday's HPC discussion, in case anyone hasn't seen it...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.txt

Till later!

Colleen :-)
july guesscast/possible false prophecy (#26)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:30AM 01-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXX*)

july 1st now.. basin looks pretty hostile. watching the last half of june, im getting a feel for july. i dont think anything will form next week, with the eastern CONUS longwave digging in and the TUTT getting comfy.. it neutralizes most of the primed basin. between africa and the caribbean the water just isnt warm enough until, again, august. since this is another lingering la nina year.. albeit a weak one.. my thinking is that maybe only a storm or two will form from now til august 15th.. and maybe ten or a dozen from then til mid october. so, maybe one july storm, nothing memorable. thats just climatology.. run of the mill.
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