CFHC Talkback For News Story #49:
Newest Talkback: 06:22 AM 07-02 EDT

Gulfatude
07:13 PM EDT - 01 July 2001

In continuing with the tradition of this site mangling gulf storm forecasts, we now have a 180 from this morning. A depression may be forming from the low that's been drifting slowly westward. Emphasizing the need to monger in the gulf, this system has exploded during the day, and now I think the chances of us having a depression or TS tomorrow are fairly good. Panhandle/Alabama be aware.

Development potential for this wave.

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [----------------*-----]


This system will bring heavy rain to the northern/eastern Gulf of Mexico at least, and will need to be watched for anything fishy. We'll keep an eye on it through tomorrow, as we get another reminder to always keep watch. (This morning around 4AM when I wrote the first update the system looked horrible, and now it's very healthy looking.) Persistence is the key, and will remain so.




NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


Show All Comments

Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)

systems (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 07:48PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPTNUY*)


Well its too early to say what can happen since
the pressures are high near 1012 tonight, and
also there are several closed low swirls in this.
Its mostly a SE and ENE wind flow. We are
waiting on a sw wind to remain for at least 6
hours or more to make this a depression. We
will know by afternoon on Monday to see the
vis satillite imagery. Also to note if it does
form it will move little but to the N then NE
toward the Panhandle of Florida, but Im not saying
it will go inland there, it might even go more
north or even NE to ENE by Tuesday.
The system I said had a 40% chance of developing
didnt make it to the carribean as expected, but
it could regenerate in a few days near Mexico.
Also A well defined low is off of Africa moving
slowly W but wont develop, but will bring the
July w winds to the area to help develop the
area in the near future. scottsvb
Gulf 5/10

Active Gulf (#2)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 08:11PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQTY*)


Well looking at the latest Infrared satellite and last of the visible are showing convection in the Gulf. But appears that the convection is on the wane for the night by looking at the Infrared. But thats fairly typical as we lose the heating from the sun. But am very confident in it exploding again tomorrow and maybe giving way to a tropical depression or storm.
Joe

I Miss Everything (#3)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 09:02PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPS*)


Well..wouldn't ya know it? I go out on the boat for the 1st time today, and come back and WHAM!!! Actually, I have been watching this area for several days, so I'm not really that surprised. Scott, if it takes the course you're thinking it may....ALL of FL better be on the lookout!! We'll know tomorrow for sure, as you said...talk to you all then!

Colleen :-)

convection diminishing (#4)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 09:50PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (VSNTTNWXNWU*)


Yeah, there is less convection than there was, but there is still a low. I believe convection will flare tommorow. I could be wrong because I'm just a 12 year old kid.

Alex.... (#5)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 10:10PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQQ*)


Just because you're 12 doesn't mean you're wrong. Actually, it's called "diurnal convection"...it dies down at night because there is no heating in the atmosphere as there is during the day. But looking at the loops, you're right...there is a low there. As a matter of fact, I am just listening to a report out of Manatee County where they had a 45 second tornado this afternoon...I was not that far from there today. (What does this have to do with anything? I don't know, I just added it because I was listening to the TV!) And in the background, I can hear thunder and see lightning, although it is quite a ways off, nearer to the West Coast...this is unusual, and it's due to the system in the Gulf.

Tune in tomorrow for another episode of "As the Low Turns".....

;-) Colleen

Gulf Formation (#6)
Posted by:
Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 10:47PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRTY*)


SURFACE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW FORMED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25.8N
85.7W EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER A BROAD AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG 24N85W 24N88W MOVING
S 25KT...MAY HAVE TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CYCLOGENESIS PROCESS IN
THIS AREA. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST CONUS AS A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION/TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE HAS ESSENTIALLY PUSHED THE STRONGER JET
STREAM WINDS FURTHER NORTH AND HAS ALLOWED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CYCLOGENESIS COULD BEGIN
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

Confused (#7)
Posted by: Barbara Location: Mobile
Posted On 11:26PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNRRV*)


I don't get it. I'm throughly confused! Earlier today I'm hearing that I should watch the Eastern Gulf, and now on the 10:00 news I'm seeing this big swirl in the Western Gulf over near Texas. So just where exactly is this "low" and what is it going to do?? Am I gonna have to make a Spam, BeanieWeenie, water and lamp oil grocery store run it the morning? (I sure am glad I have y'all to depend on again this year!) ;o)

Confused (#8)
Posted by: Barbara Location: Mobile
Posted On 11:26PM 01-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNRQTNTUNRRV*)


I don't get it. I'm throughly confused! Earlier today I'm hearing that I should watch the Eastern Gulf, and now on the 10:00 news I'm seeing this big swirl in the Western Gulf over near Texas. So just where exactly is this "low" and what is it going to do?? Am I gonna have to make a Spam, BeanieWeenie, water and lamp oil grocery store run it the morning? (I sure am glad I have y'all to depend on again this year!) ;o)

ok (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb
Posted On 12:33AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNUW*)


2 comments. 1 for Barabra the area you see
spining is a upper level low, that is not
what we are looking for. 2nd actually all the
system to get better orgaanized usually will do
it overnight and not during the day. This is
showing no signs of development. A downburst
swirl from several outflow boundrys near the
surface is what the aircraft probably found
earlier. Im decresing my forcast from a maybe
5 to a 3 now out of 10. So basiclly Im saying
is that for this to develop more tropical we need
to see night time pressures and cold tops persist.
Normally if its during the day then it is more
subtropical or assiciated with a upper level
disturbance in the area which there is in the
W Gulf. So no to the day time flare ups, that is
not tropical in nature for this to persist. Also
any movement will still be slow and to the NNW
then N and NE in time.

Low Position (#10)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 12:34AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRPU*)


Barbara the swirl your see in the western Gulf is a upper level low. The low pressure that is being talked about is in eastern gulf. Its really hard to tell from satellite. Not sure where its going to go just a bit early to tell. Just have to wait and see tomorrow. It may explode again tomorrow and become a tropical system, or it may not.

Also area near Cape Verdes needs to be watch closely.

Agree Scottsvb (#11)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 12:39AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRPU*)


I had my chances high with the system but I'am feeling much less confident in it organizing into any thing. But will keep an eye on it.

odds against (#12)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:33AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXS*)


there's still convection popping up by night, just not in the same places. the big, steady tstorm complex just hasnt been there. it'll have to do better than a 1015 low to get organized. the low will probably try to reform under whatever diurnal activity goes off tomorrow. still doubt it will develop.. of course, had i been paying attention earlier today, id have probably taken the bait as well...

This morning (#13)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL
Posted On 04:59AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RPYNQUVNRTPNQP*)


Anything I say about Gulf systems, it seems the opposite happens. The chance of formation now is on the lower end of the scale now, but could change again now that I mention it.

Persistence is the key, and this system lost the whole keyring down the drain grate.

the new low (#14)
Posted by:
joe Location: brandon, florida
Posted On 06:22AM 02-Jul-2001 with id (RTNYRNRQVNQQQ*)


ive been here 23 years i have to say i have to see it to belive it . too much guessing games right now so how low will it go?


Show All Comments


Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page