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CFHC Talkback For News Story #51: Newest Talkback: 05:55 PM 07-08 EDT

Upper Level Bahamas? Will it Persist?
09:51 AM EDT - 03 July 2001

There is a mostly upper level system near the Bahamas that has exploded this morning, and may want to take a dive and try to become a lower level system. Unlikely, still, (UL winds are rather high) but definitely worth watching during this holiday centered week. In either case it will bring rain and some wind to Florida later on this week. Development really depends on persistence again. If this keeps up (Especially overnight) then we may have something develop.

I'll be out of town the remainder of the week so access to the site will be spotty. If something develops we'll do our best.

My development potential scale for the wave approaching florida:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-------*--------------]

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #48 (of 48 total)

Persistance (#1)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 10:00AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXR*)

is the key...unlike the Gulf system...this area has been persistant for over 2 days now, including last night. Remember, also..that if this does develop, it has a warm eddy + the Gulfstream to get through before it comes to visit...we need to be aware and pay attention to this one.

Hope you guys have a great Independence Day!
Colleen

Tropical Disturbance (#2)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 10:34AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNUQNQQVNQTV*)

Weather channel is now calling this a mid level Tropical Disturbance. Any idea what that means? And does that mean they are taking it more seriously?

Mid Level Disturbance (#3)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:00AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNSUNRRNQTP*)

Well, as I understand things, this means we are moving towards the possibility of a Tropical Depression. As stated above, this system has been primarily a high level system. A mid level system means it is moving down towards the surface. When we get to low level then we are at or close to being a Tropical Depression. Interesting news.

weather channel (#4)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:00AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

TWC is still saying tropical development is not favorable as of 10:50. Of course, we'll all see what is going on at 11:30.
After finally getting my loops to run, I don't see a strong circulation and it seems as if it is pulling to the north. Any circulation I see, seems to be a couple hundred miles to the north of where it was yesterday.

huh? (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 11:06AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTW*)

Actually Mark gave out the perfect reasons
why this wont form in the topic before. Midlevel
low also doesnt mean its coming down to the
surface it just is a retransformation of the
system. Anyways this system is tropical in
nature but wont be a serious system for
development. It will bring much needed rain
to Florida in a day or 2.

Alan (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:13AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTW*)

I think what you are seeing pulling to the north is not the circulation itself, but the convection. Like StormHound said, this is something that needs to carefully watched and the NHC has said as much in it's 8:00 discussion last night. Climatologically (sp?) speaking, this area is a favorable area for development this time of year...maybe all the ingrediants aren't there yet, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to it.

Bahamas (#7)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:16AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNWY*)

Well convection still going in the area. As far as it becoming a tropical system I think fairly slim but needs to be watched. Shear is around 5 to 10kts near the convection but increases to 20kts or so in western bahamas. Never the less this system will up are rain chances starting tomorrow especially southeast coast of florida then east coast.

models and allison (#8)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:30AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

So the NHC says none of the models show it developing. Question for anyone because I was on vacation when Allison popped. Did any of the models show Allison forming? If so, how far out did they show it?
Thanks
Alan

no circulation (#9)
Posted by: Leo
Posted On 11:33AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQVS*)

Calm down Colleen... NHC says no circulation...they are the best and official.

I'm Calm.... (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 11:42AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNTW*)

just realistic....nothing wrong with that. As far as NHC being the "formal" information site, you are correct. I don't disagree with that at all. However, I also remember a storm named "IRENE" that was suppossed to hit the west coast of Florida according to the "models" and actually it was the Miami area that got slammed...and they weren't prepared. It was very obvious on sat pix that it wasn't going the way the models and the NHC insisted it was, but they never issued any warnings for the Miami area, which resulted in a lot of people that were put in harm's way needlessly.
Yes, they may be the "official" source; that doesn't mean they're perfect, either. I'm certainly not; as a matter of fact, looking at the loops now, I see what they are saying.

Calm down??? (#11)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:46AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Just a reminder, this is a board for us to discuss what we are looking at with systems. No one says the people on the board are the official source. In fact, we always say go with the offical source.
But you can't deny that the NHC isn't always correct either. They, in fact, are using what they see to make an educated guess on what is happening, albeit a better guess than us amatuers make on the board.
So far, there has been no one saying this low will destroy Florida or that's it's absolutely going to develop. All we have been saying is that we should be watching it because of the level of convection, the water temps and the lack of wind shear.
No one that I have seen needs to calm down.

Circulation (#12)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando
Posted On 11:48AM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNSUNRRNQTP*)

I have to agree that at this point there doesn't seem to be much circulation and development doesn't seem all that likely. Conditions are somewhat favorable, however, so it is worth keeping an eye on.

great Job!! (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: Port St. Lucie
Posted On 12:54PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNUR*)

I just wanted to say you all do a great job and have some great input you never get from "Official weather sources". I usually come here first and THEN go to the NHC. Keep up the good work!

Joe and Alan.... (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 01:04PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNTX*)

You're right...we wouldn't be here if we just wanted to depend on the NHC. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. The point being, this forum was created by the site owners so we could discuss the tropics, not define them to a tee. If we were able to do that, we would be working at the NHC, not posting here.

And we all know how fast things can change with the NHC. Just look at Sunday, as an example.

Colleen :-)

I agree (#15)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 01:23PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPRNXT*)

One thing I've learned studying hurricanes is that one should look for subtle things, because they may be the beginning of a trend. I in no means want to insult the NHC, but the tropical weather outlook for 5:30 am on June 5th was"Tropical storm formation is not expected through tommorrow." Note that Allison formed later that day.

Circulation Centre?? (#16)
Posted by: Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 01:40PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQSNQRRNQUYNQSY*)

JUst checked the latest visible image from the GHCC and zoomed in at 27.05w 72.04n.... this is the area where there is apparently a Circulation Centre. Please check this location, best to zoom in from the large image found at: www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html

Remember to centre it at, or very near to 27w 72n, and please let me know what you all think. Personaly i beleive it may make the transition to a Sub-tropical Depression / Storm possibly.

Rich
www.stormwarn2000.com/Hurrricane_Centre.htm

translation Please? (#17)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 02:25PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Could anyone put this into English? It's the 2 p.m. tropical weather discussion.
thanks.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 73W/74W IS NOW ALONG 74W/75W S OF 27N
AT 03/1200 UTC MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WEST ATLC CREATING A COMPLEX
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION ARE WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIVERGENCE E OF UPPER LOW. MORE
RECENTLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE AXIS.
ANALYSIS OF PAST UPPER LEVEL TIMESECTIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SHOWS
TWO FEATURES TRACKING WEST. THE FIRST FEATURE IS PRIMARILY IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS BETWEEN 900-600 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND SHIFT
NOTED FURTHER E. A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE WIND SURGE IS NOTED S OF 25N
EAST OF WAVE OVER THE ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN TO 55W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TURNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG 74W/75W MAY BE A REFLECTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THUS THE WAVE AXIS IS HELD ALONG THE SURFACE
WIND SHIFT/SURGE. DESPITE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...WAVE
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE N BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND SOUTH/CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT CONTINUES WNW.

I'll try (#18)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 02:33PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPQNQS*)

The wave is moving westward and is at about 75w. It has a mid level circulation and a surface wind shift has been noted farther east. I really don't know what a surface wind shift isCould a low level circulation be trying to form?

thanks (#19)
Posted by: alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 02:39PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

That's the part I didn't get. What does a wind shift at 55W have to do with a wave at 75W?

strange (#20)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 02:44PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNQPQNQS*)

I was closely studying the visible loop a few minutes ago. It appears that the circulation was moving w to wnw, but then it appeared to dissapate and reform moving northward.

Could it be trying to reform? (#21)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:12PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQXQ*)

It could be trying to reform further north, where it's more favorable; then again, I'm not a hurricane so I don't know what it's thinking.

(AND I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE A HURRICANE)

Maybe the new NWS reports could give us a little insight here...

Colleen

Circulation (#22)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 04:15PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNVS*)

Well it appears to upper level low is moving north on the latest visible. Although moisture will be increasing over Florida as the wave comes closer to the state as south florida moisture already on increase. So Fourth may be wet for some folks over Florida. As far as as this system becoming a depression, I still think chances are low but will have to watch.

Key West NWS Discussion (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:49PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYT*)

Is saying that winds are on the increase near Kings Bay? Bahamas, reporting 16knt winds out of the ene; before they were 10knts out of the east.
What does this mean? I'm not sure. Maybe it means that the wave is now moving to the WNW instead of W. Any thoughts?

Dead in the Water? (#24)
Posted by: Mike
Posted On 05:08PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNUQNQQVNQTV*)

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to be dead!

Upper low (#25)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 05:17PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNVS*)

Not sure what there saying colleen about the wind shift and speed. I though the upper low center was north of the bahamas, but key west nws said it's south.

sorry it's not going to happen (#26)
Posted by: Gary B Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 05:37PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RTNQVTNVNYY*)

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY

this (#27)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 05:54PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNWW*)

Everyone is so funny in the posts. Keep
guessing guys I like that. Some guesses
are real good others well lets just leave
it at that. Generally its the same people
always saying that every wave is going to
form into a depression or storm or more and
will hit near they're city.
Well I feel they can post that or anything
in here, but I hope that some can try to
be more realistic.
As of now I still go with the people that say
this wont develop. The wind axis to the east
that they are talking about to 55W is a trough
from the upper low which near 27N. A reformed
mid level low is more near 24N and 73W moving
W-WNW and will start to affect florida over the
next 1-3 days. We need it especially in Central
and Western Florida.

thank you (#28)
Posted by: Leo
Posted On 06:02PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQYP*)

Thank you scott...i couldn't have said it better myself.

Oh Well.. (#29)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:08PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNXQ*)

then I guess there's really no reason to post here anymore. Thanks for clearing that all up. :-)

Everyone likes excitment!!! (#30)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Fla
Posted On 07:17PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRQS*)

Its nice to have others who enjoy the discussions. No matter if were right or wrong we all like to learn from others. I'm not a professional but I have had many years experience working with others who have the knowledge. I never had the time for a degree but I enjoy learning from all.. I really enjoy all comments here and I have learned from many here on this site. Lets work together and we may help others with less experience and enjoy this site even more. THANKS

Good Going Guys (#31)
Posted by: StormHound Location: Orlando
Posted On 07:22PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYU*)

Glad to see you *experts* are here to keep the confusion to a minimum. It must be really hard for you to read the NHC reports and then repeat them here on the boards. I'd really hate to see people actually have a discussion on a discussion board. I'll just show up here from time to time so Scott and Leo can tell me what the NHC just told me. Keep up the good work!

Perspectives (#32)
Posted by: Mike C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Somewhere in Tennessee (Currently)
Posted On 10:28PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRUUNXXNRS*)

A reminder. I'm out of town so this is the first I've seen of the site since I wrote the article. Discussion is welcome, but namingcalling or finger pointing is not. I have very unreliable access to the site this week, so I cannot hope to monitor it much more. Please discuss the storms and not the people. If you have valid reasons why something is wrong explain that instead of finger pointing. Thanks.

Wet Fourth Expected In Florida (#33)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 11:31PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQXW*)

South Florida looks wet over the next few days. Though its not welcome durring holidays we need it. In southwest Florida were short some 11" this year. Any rain is welcome but I hope everyone enjoys the fireworks. Have a great day.

Rain (#34)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:44PM 03-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNRPS*)

Yes it should bring in some welcome rains on the Fourth put we still have plenty of making up to do in the rainfall department. Put boy did we pick up some rain tonight in St.Pete, little over an inch. Have a good fourth injoy the fireworks. . .

GOM (#35)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 12:42AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUT*)

well lets see what happens in a day or so when it makes its way into the gulf/ the way the sat loops look the large circulation area looks like it might cross the keys / storms tonight are firing up around that circulation again and it seems to be directly over cuba heading into the gulf/ if nothing more than a rain maker its always fun to watch and post, anyway happy 4th to all

no one (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb Location: Tampa
Posted On 02:08AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQUW*)

No one said you Stormhound or anyone, its just
a fact and anyone can post what they want. Also
anyone that does get a system right doesn't have
to look at the NHC,LOL. I like others in here
make my posts on my own thoughts, Im not perfect
like anyone else isn't also, I just try to give
my best forcast.

gulf conditions (#37)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 10:46AM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VSNRSRNYVNRPU*)

Is the environment in THe Gulf of Mexico favorable? Does anyone think the disturbance has a chance to develope once it gets out over the gulf?

My Apologies (#38)
Posted by: StormHound Location: Orlando
Posted On 03:00PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYU*)

I'm sorry Mike if I enflamed the situation. I feel I must make a couple more points, then I will leave these boards entirely, if that is everone's wish. I do understand, Scott that you are entitled to your opinion. I, and others, appreciate your insights and thoughts on the storms in our area. However, you do not allow the same courtesy to others when they post their ideas. You have not yet learned how to disagree with others without insluting them. This site has just lost someone forever who added discussion and life to these threads. Agree or disagree with Colleen, she was always polite and loved to read others posts. I'm glad that she has found a place where her posts are not constantly criticized. Goodbye.

Ok, Enough is Enough! (#39)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 04:08PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNQWR*)

Ok..first things first. Happy 4th of July!! Hope everyone is enjoying a nice day off with friends or family and staying safe! To all of those people here who sent me encouraging messages, thank you from the bottom of my heart. I will be the first to admit when I'm wrong, and although the mix was there for something to form, it didn't happen. Oh well. Big deal. Learning is not a one-time experience, it's always occuring, day by day. If you asked me three years ago how to read a hurricane model, I would have told you to turn on the Weather Channel. It's a constant process. In order for us to learn, we need to keep posting our thoughts and comment, however off-base we may be. Then, we can learn from our mistakes and move on. I for one will keep posting here, I'm tougher than most people think (although my Irish temper will get the best of me sometimes *grins*) usually it slides off my back like water on a duck. So let's work together. I don't want to hear anymore about who was talking about who; it doesn't matter anymore. Ok, that's the end.

Now...I'm gonna go way out on a limb here and give my prediction for today's weather: I think it might rain.

*GRINS*

Colleen ;-)

Fourth Forecast (#40)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 04:28PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQSW*)

Well I think that's my prdiction to Colleen as there's a 50/ 50 chance of rain in any one spot today. I'am hoping it will rain early so we can enjoy the fireworks tonight here at my house but you never no with Florida's thunderstorms. . .

I Was Correct (#41)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:59PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNQUU*)

It's raining. My 5-year old is probably wetting his pants right now as he is on the way to see "Cats & Dogs" and hates thunder and lightning. And I'll tell you right now, it sounds NASTY out there....BIG BIG BOOMERS.

Hope they go away before fireworks.

Colleen :-)

hey everyone (#42)
Posted by: garyc Location: jacksonville
Posted On 07:23PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPR*)

I know i am new here, but i would like to say that i respect everyone's opinion. I would also like to just point out a few things. The NWS is right most of the time, but they have been known to be wrong at times and so are we. We are just all in this for the love of the chase. So can't we all just get along

Wicked Weather (#43)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:44PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNTT*)

Well...this time my forecast was 100% correct....we had a storm here the likes of which I haven't seen in a year or so...we got 3"+ of rain at my house in a 1/2 hour....and the worst of the weather was a little further to the NW section of the the county.

No fireworks tonight, (at least for us) as it is still lightning and thundering here.

Colleen :-)

Peace (#44)
Posted by: Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 08:49PM 04-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQVT*)

Stay with us StormHound - I enjoy your input. This gang always provides thought-provoking input and I learn from it - from ALL of you! A young man of 12 hits the nail on the head when he states "that one should look for subtle things". What a wonderful thing for information exchange this Internet is. Don't lose site of our common thread - the thirst for knowledge about this youngest of natural sciences called Meteorology. Looking forward to a great season of sharing information and ideas (and 'superb' forecasts and 'busted' ones)!
Cheers,
ED

?ok (#45)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 10:10PM 05-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTQNQVQ*)

just a quick say, my post had nothing
todo with Colleen so dont involve someone
or anyone else. It wasnt directed at anyone
actually. That was terrible to say that and all
you said.

Anyways TS development is not expected
through Sat...Ps. I do like her posts by the
way and your posts are nothing bad at all so

NE of PR (#46)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:31AM 06-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNQYR*)

Just watching the loops this morning, a little bit of flare-up of convection just to the NE of PR. Although the NHC says it will weaken and move NW as the ridge amplifies, it's still interesting to watch it anyway. Gotta do something in between quiet times, right? It prepares you for the "real thing". (I guess)..

Colleen :-)

thanks (#47)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 09:13AM 06-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRQT*)

Well, this is my first post, I discovered the sight by accident two weeks ago. It's good to know that there are many other people out there like myself who enjoy tracking and anticipating storms,(and storms that never materialize). I am excited to have a forum like this to share my passion with everyone else, and I look forward to tracking and discussing systems with everyone. Now let's bring on the storms.

lightning ate my modem (#48)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 01:55PM 08-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNXU*)

a combination of my sister not turning off the computer in a bad thunderstorm on july 2 and a trip to the blue ridge have kept me away for a few days... looks like i missed another debate. the factions that post here (schools of thought people tend to follow) had another go at it, and then there are some posts by newbies asking what the hell all the acronyms and meteorological analyses mean.. and then a few more consolation posts for the affronted and reminders from the webmasters and veteran watchers to be cordial.. and its not even really the hot part of the season yet. i tell ya guys, its a lot more interesting than reading nhc advisories..
anyhow, nothing imminent or profoundly interesting to watch today, just the usual slow-burn activity of july. the area to watch into next week is off the eastern seaboard, though prospects look similar to those a week ago.

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