CFHC Talkback For News Story #58:
Newest Talkback: 01:48 PM 08-19 EDT

Tropical Storm Chris Forms
10:47 AM EDT - 18 August 2000

3PM Update:

The system east of Chris has finally gotten its act together and probably will be TD#7 tonight or early tomorrow. The NE Caribbean will want to watch this one very very closely.

Original Update
East of the lesser Antilles Islands we now have Chris.

No watches or warnings yet, but there may be later. It's important to note that the official forecast track takes it safely north of the Caribbean islands.

The feeling is that it will skirt the islands to the north, and keep on its west northwest motion. We will have to watch this one into next week for sure. The earlier article talks more about it. My current feeling is that it will turn north, but my thoughts don't always agree with that. This case I see enough counter-evidence to suggest that it may wind up near the Florida coast somewhere next week. However, since a real solid position and movement hasn't been found yet (Recon hasn't been there yet) its all speculation. Therefore it should remain under close watch by everyone until it makes its move.

Keep watch until it is NORTH of your latitude. We will have plenty of time to do that here in the US.

Alberto is back to Hurricane strength, again.

Comments or Questions? Use the comment button by the story Headline.


StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #3 (of 24 total)

Future of the system (#1)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 02:03PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNSPNWTNRPU*)


I think it is too early to start making landfall predictions for the southeast coast. At this moment we don't even have recon reports. And the models are not so good that far out. I feel it's important to alert folks about the possibilities and describe the models, but to actually name areas on the coast is way too premature and prone to being wrong. I will take the conservative side on any questionable activity.

Right now a few models suggest activity along the SE coast. But it is TOO SOON to say with any confidence where it could hit if at all. I don't like getting people's guards up when there is no need. Save the energy for when the doubt is less.

Folks in the southeast should be watching this system, and should have already done preperations for hurricane season a long time ago. If the storm threatens you will know about it.


5 pm advisory (#2)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 04:10PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


It's really quiet in here today with Chris looming.
Any guesses on the 5 pm announcement. I'm going to say that they will say the movement is more to the Northwest than what they thought. The recon flight that showed only 20 kts is puzzling.

I was wrong (#3)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 04:55PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


I guess that shows me how my meterology expertise lies.

Chris + Local Media = Florida (#4)
Posted by:
John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:30PM 18-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)


One local media TV station out of Central FLorida Say's Chris may get real close to Florida! May is the key word. Upper level ridge keeping Chris in a westward motion! We will see. If that is the case, will it be a hurricane? What Cat? Let's hear some of your comments?


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