CFHC Talkback For News Story #58:
Newest Talkback: 07:21 AM 07-23 EDT

Lets Go for no Named Systems in July!
10:35 AM EDT - 20 July 2001

Right now is the calm before the storm... so instead of talking about all the amazing systems we are watching and a cool sat graphic of it, instead we have the infinitely more interesting photo of a bunch of happy walruses...

Apologies to LtM

We're now shooting for a named storm free July, and it's a much better goal than wanting a storm to show up. Make no mistake, although we enjoy tracking the systems. A record dull year is what I hope for. No landfalls and no majors.

One speck of clouds south of Bermuda... 
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [-*--------------------]

It'll be quiet for a few more days at least. I don't see anything coming up next week either yet. So enjoy the quiet! We'll awaken from slumber eventually, and hopefully not shaken awake. The season really gets moving next month.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #25 - #45 (of 45 total)
no chance??? (#25)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:04AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNRPS*)

i guess even if something did form that we would have no chance of getting it here in the houston/galveston area?can someone please verify that for me?thanks
Shawn (#26)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 10:11AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNRUS*)

The satellite picture I was referring to was NHC's (around) 2am EDT IR picture. There was a swirling feature. It may have washed out as I haven't looked at any imagery yet today.

Steve
Stron upper level winds (#27)
Posted by: cane man Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl.
Posted On 10:13AM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNTVNSNRSW*)

STeve Lyons said the upper level winds are too strong for this to develop. Does anybody know when they are forecast to weaken or when conditions would be more favorable?
its boring out there (#28)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 12:57PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTPNRQT*)

gulf low is nontropical, nothing
anywhere to develop in the next couple
days!!
nothing again (#29)
Posted by: shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:10PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNQVWNSNRUS*)

it looks like another case of a bunch of clouds and storms that can't seem to get their act together.let's face it;it's not going to happen this time either.the right elements just don't seem to be there.
Still a long shot... (#30)
Posted by: Mitch Location: Cape Canaveral
Posted On 03:22PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNYUNRSQNQYT*)

from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.html

SURFACE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NEAR
27N83W. LATEST TAMPA RADAR IMAGES REVEAL NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN BANDS AROUND THE W THROUGH S SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER.
PRESSURE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING
ON THE S SIDE FROM 22N-27N. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN ACCELERATION OF
SURFACE WINDS WHICH ARE NOW IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER A LARGE AREA
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN ADDITION...A LARGE AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 81W-87W. GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW... AS
WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...ANY
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


subsidence as usual (#31)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:51PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQR*)

the cimss shear analysis says shear is less than 20kt, nowhere near enough to prevent development. so what could possibly be squelching this low? the answer is on wv, subsidence is still infringing on the small surface low southeast of tampa bay from the north, supressing convection on its northern semicircle. the pressure hasnt fallen around there since last night, so at best the low is maintaining. when you factor in the usual diurnal pressure variation, the net pressure change might be rising. it's just wait and see if it hangs around until the dry air wedge leaves it be.
cor (#32)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:52PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQR*)

low is sw of tampa bay.
Naples (#33)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 08:54PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

The area W of Naples is looking seems to be starting to wrap around on satellite. Still too early to call it a major storm, but looks to me (amatuer that I am) like we could have a Depression within hours. This one is on our doorstep, so it certainly bears watching.
Naples (#34)
Posted by: Dana
Posted On 09:19PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPTNUS*)

Sure is windy here in Naples.
HUM! Could we have something? (#35)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:24PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQWQ*)

Well theres a broad low level circulation with the center just offshore here in Pinellas. I've been watching and TPC has issued a statement on it around 8:35 this evening. Now the thing I'am seeing that is holding it back may be the mid level drying, that could change though as the system drifts slowly west and north through the night and into tomorrow where I think it will pickup speed and move north. Thunderstorms persist and hearing thunder now as a band of storms moves slowly west around the low. I think this needs to be watched closely....
HUM! Could we have something? (#36)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:24PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNQWQ*)

Well theres a broad low level circulation with the center just offshore here in Pinellas. I've been watching and TPC has issued a statement on it around 8:35 this evening. Now the thing I'am seeing that is holding it back may be the mid level drying, that could change though as the system drifts slowly west and north through the night and into tomorrow where I think it will pickup speed and move north. Thunderstorms persist and hearing thunder now as a band of storms moves slowly west around the low. I think this needs to be watched closely....
could we see it? (#37)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 09:28PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSTNQSU*)

if this area around florida does develop,what are the chances of it coming to the houston/galveston,texas area.i know they would be pretty low.can anyone answer this for me?
'Bout time NHC has acknowledged (#38)
Posted by: cane man Location: Clearwater Beach, Fl.
Posted On 09:39PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VUNRRTNQVNY*)

I live u the road from you Joe near Indian Rocks Beach. It has been a very weird weekend weather wise. Not your typical rainy weekend but very eerie and tropical. I wondered why this morning nothing was announced when my very amateur eyes thought it saw a definite tropical system definition on radar. Well at least they finally made us aware but hopefully the news will jump on this tonight and help get all others informed. Nothing may come of this but with the close proximity to land and how fast a system in these warm waters can develop, it is worth taking serious.
Shawn... (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 09:55PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNQV*)

Likely no chance. The center of the lower pressure will probably move between North and Northwest and would likely cross the shoreline in Florida between Tampa and Panama City. This depends on how far westward the Bermuda Ridge builds and also whether the energy in the east Atlantic pulls due north as expected. If the low-level center were to still be in the NE Gulf on Tuesday without having progressed 100 miles further north, then ultimate landfall will depend on how far westward the upper high over TX and OK retrogrades. This will determine if anyone in MS or AL would be affected. You in Galveston will probably remain under a general NW-NE upper flow for the next few days which would inhibit anything from moving your way anyway except thunderstorms circling that upper high.

The pressure here is pretty low. It's been around 28.84 this evening which is generally low for us in SE LA.

Steve
looking pretty impressive! (#40)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:41PM 22-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRPVNRRS*)

it looks like the convection is firing up again around our low pressure system.it looks like it's just a matter of time before we have td#3 on our hands.it does look like us in texas are for sure safe from this one though.anyone what to put some percentages on where exactly it will end up or is it still too early to speculate?also,should everyone along the whole gulf coast have their eyes on this one;we all know what weird things tropical systems can do.
better than average (#41)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 12:27AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

this trend keeps up and we'll have a depression or storm by tomorrow. it's already generating the winds and low pressures needed, just lacks the defined center, the last ingredient needed. right now there are three centers i can pick out, all of them pinwheeling around one another. one is SW of tampa bay, one has sprung up south of there a beam of ft myers, and another is west of those two. when this situation develops, the one that has the best convective support usually takes charge, thats what to look for tonight. the winds on the coast south of tampa have picked up thanks to a tightening pressure gradient, so as soon as a single center takes over it will get the nod. the frontal nature of the low is almost gone now. its track will be a function of strength. weak system moves north, stronger system engages the upper flow and moves more to the west.
Naples (#42)
Posted by: Dana Location: Naples, fl.
Posted On 01:09AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNSW*)

Well the Weather Channel says they're keeping an eye on this one. I would put sustained winds here of at least 20 mph and the trees are doing thier tropical dance. small limbs are starting break off and occasionally hit my roof. Should be intresting to see what they say by morning.
how strong? (#43)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 01:15AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRPVNRRS*)

before this system makes landfall,wherever that might be,in anyone's opinion,how strong could this thing get?
strength (#44)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 03:18AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNYU*)

that's anybody's guess. most models are discrediting 95L (the gfdl/nrl tracking name), or making ridiculous predictions (the 00z gfdl takes the cake here). consensus seems to be taking it north, with little or no strengthening. unless the storm stays still or moves westward, it's going to run out of room before it can strengthen much. the guaranteed story here is going to be RAIN. lots of rain, whether it becomes tropical storm barry or not.
Fizzle (#45)
Posted by: StormHound (http://stormhound.homestead.com) Location: Orlando/FL
Posted On 07:21AM 23-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTYNRRVNYY*)

Our GMEX storm seems to have spun out over the evening. The satellite images show little organization left. Still going to be some nasty weather for somebody when it decides where to go.
Show All Comments | Show Previous 39 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page