CFHC Talkback For News Story #59:
Newest Talkback: 05:38 PM 07-25 EDT

Goes M Is Up
08:15 AM EDT - 23 July 2001

Yesterday the new GOES M satellite was launched, which is the last of that "generation" satellite, which will help track storms across the globe. Find out more on the GOES Web Site.

This weekend we had a little rain. Which is chipping away at our drought conditions, and actually start to get our lakes back up. This stalled front, though caused a low to develop west of us. But the conditions were (and still are not) favorible for development.

It didn't stop it from trying, however, and the west coast had a windy day and plenty of rain.

Spinout
I don't see it becoming anything.

Development Potential for Gulf Low
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
           [--*-------------------]

Otherwise, not much happening, and I'm still going for the no named storms in July goal.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #117 - #137 (of 137 total)
caribbean falling apart,too (#117)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 07:55PM 24-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNQQS*)

doesn't look like it will make it through the night.
which (#118)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER) Location: tampa
Posted On 09:28PM 24-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQTSNUT*)

shawn which is it that you feel? one post
you say its getting stronger, then 50min
later you say it wont make it through the night.
Well when it crosses into the SW Gulf it could
thurs or fri, also I still say off africa in 48hrs
be depressions.
Tropics Could Be heating Up Soon (#119)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 09:51PM 24-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNWW*)

There are several areas of disturbed weather in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. We are approaching the time of year when development is becoming imminent. The eastern Atlantic definitely has possibilities. We should have Barry before the end of the Month. Maybe by Saturday. Cheers!!
beginner!! (#120)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:06PM 24-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNQQS*)

well,scott,as i have said before,i am new at this.i know a little bit about weather from watching the weather channel while growing up.at the same time,i never studied it in school or have a degree in it.i just try to go by gut feelings and satellite pix.if you go back to my comments from yesterday,i think i did pretty well.i'm just here to learn more about it.there does seem to be alot of people who share their comments on this site who do know what they are talking about.i hope to be one of you all some day.
let's see what tonight brings (#121)
Posted by: Keith Location: orlando
Posted On 12:03AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNRQS*)

First I want to apologize for my 3 consecutive posts earlier in the day. I am still a novice and I deserve the ribbing (thanks Colleen). I am glad we can have fun on this sight. Well I will be interested to see what everything looks like tomorrow morning. One note on the stupid gel thing. Isn't the reason for tropical cyclones to act as a cooling mechanism for the tropics? It's natures way of not overheating. So if we decide to try to stand in natures way I am afraid to see the natural reaction to this, For each action there is an equal and opposite reaction. That's just my take. I am looking forward to spending the next 3 months sharing this forum with everyone. I am glad I found this sight.

Thanks, Keith
Northern Gulf ... (#122)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 12:59AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNTW*)

The lowest land pressure I could find and hour or so ago was in Amelia/Morgan City - 29.80. Most of the central and upper TX coast was at 29.83 or 29.84. Almost all winds in SE LA and buoys are S, SE or SSE and fairly light (some of the buoys sustained in the upper teens) Radar is starting to pick up showers near the coast.

Tomorrow in N.O. will be tropical but it's hard to say exactly how much rain we're going to get. Squalls and bands could sweep through between dawn and say 3 or 4 pm bringing 2-4" total. Or if the trof itself is slow to pass through the area mid-am, storms could form directly overhead causing ANY amount of rain (2-10"). If the heaviest lines form north or west of here, we'll probably see 2 or 3 periods of rain and maybe 1-2". Then we move into a very tropical SE flow with cool looking skies. Hey! At least LA's getting something out of this system. :)

L8R,

Steve
guess the Cane (#123)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 02:56AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)




1:eduardo,96
2:fran,96
3:floyd,99
4:felix,95
Well arent I dumb (#124)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 02:58AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)

I fell like i dumb ass the awnser is on the photo
Lets Try It Agin "Guess That Cain (#125)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:05AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)


1.Eduardo ,96
2.Georges ,98
3,Dora ,99 East Pacific
4,Adolph ,01 East Pacific
Lets Try It Agin "Guess That Cain (#126)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:07AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)


1.Eduardo ,96
2.Georges ,98
3,Dora ,99 East Pacific
4,Adolph ,01 East Pacific
Lets Try It Agin "Guess That Cain (#127)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:07AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)


1.Eduardo ,96
2.Georges ,98
3,Dora ,99 East Pacific
4,Adolph ,01 East Pacific
Lets Try It Agin "Guess That Cain (#128)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:08AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)


1.Eduardo ,96
2.Georges ,98
3,Dora ,99 East Pacific
4,Adolph ,01 East Pacific
Lets Try It Agin "Guess That Cain (#129)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:08AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RTNTXNQUQNV*)



1.Eduardo ,96
2.Georges ,98
3,Dora ,99 East Pacific
4,Adolph ,01 East Pacific
can of corn (#130)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 04:14AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNWX*)

that gulf low on monday really tricked me. i figured it would be one of those twelve hour wonder systems that becomes a marginal t.s. and then comes ashore. came about as close as they can to being a classified system without making it. the leftovers of that thing is up in north georgia now raining out. leaves the basin pretty dull, nothing else remarkable. something has been evolving though.. as the bermuda high built back to the east coast, it stopped shoving all of that subsidence down into the cape verde breeding ground. in response the itcz is further north.. the approaching african wave lineup looks pretty healthy. ssts are still marginal. something to look for.. but i dont hear anyone arguing with the nhc outlook.. 'no development is expected through thursday'.
Shawn & Keith (#131)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 09:16AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVR*)

First things first. Like you say, you are both novices. And things can look different from one post to another especially when you get a new sat pic in there. So, if you see something you might think is different, you could be absolutely right. Keith, I'm glad you know I was just kidding you....it seems like the system may be "hiccuping" when you post something, and then it comes up multiple times because you didn't think it got posted.

One more thing. I for one am tired of the sarcastic and biting remarks by some here in response to questions or posts. People come to this site to learn and join in with other weather followers. Let's treat EVERYONE with the respect and dignity here that we would want to be treated with. It's not that hard.

Colleen
thanks (#132)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 09:50AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNVV*)

is the low south of cuba at the mid levels, and if it is,can the low reach the surface?also,is it moving at all?it seems to be in the same place it was yesterday at this time.it does look like from satellite pix that the storms are picking up again around the center.if this continues,how long would it take for it to become a surface low?
MEXICO (#133)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO FL
Posted On 10:33AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPQNQUX*)

Well the system below cuba is looking good/ but what about the system emerging off the mexican coast , looks to have a circulation, any thoughts
Shawn (#134)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 10:40AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPSNUS*)

You can read the NHC's daily TWD (Tropical Weather Discussions) if you click on the link to the left on this site. There they will give you a synopsis of all the goings-on/not goings on out there. If you want practice as to plotting them, the Sun-Sentinel has a great on-line plotting map that you can use to plug in the coordinates that the NHC gives you. (I have saved it in my Favorite Places on AOL). Here's what the NHC had to say this morning about this system (well, part of it, anyway):
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 78W IS NOW ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MIGHT BE RELATED TO WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N80W
OVER CENTRAL CUBA.

As far as it reaching the surface, yes, any system can do that with the right ingrediants. It doesn't happen every time, though. There are many factors involved such as wind shear, water temperature, dry air, etc. that could inhibit it's development. As for how long it takes, there isn't a given time frame for a system to develop into a surface low. It all depends on the variables that go along with any particular system.
Hope that helps!

Colleen :-)
cuba comments (#135)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:29AM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNVV*)

any more comments about the low south of cuba.is it getting weaker?stronger?since i'm a beginner,i can't seem to tell right at the moment.the nhc said in their discussion this morning that it is a weakening low.hmmm!
help!!! (#136)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 01:01PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSWNVV*)

the low south of cuba seems to be wrapping up around the center better and better but the storm activity is weakening more and more.does this mean something?does this happen when a mid level low tries to work its way down to the surface?i don't know if this thing is trying to intensify or trying to fall apart or maybe neither.please help!!!
Anxious? (#137)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 01:38PM 25-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)

Shawn,

I'm not sure. It well may have to do with the diurnal nature of that particular storm. You'll have to wait a day or two on that storm.

Oh, and I gotta give props out to myself. Surges of tropical moisture have been coming through the area all day. Nothing's been particularly heavy, but as predicted, the storms really started intensifying around 10:00. Most of the heavy rain is offshore of the LA Coast. If it doesn't move in on us by early afternoon, I'm guessing we won't see all that much until tomorrow.

Steve
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