CFHC Talkback For News Story #6:
Newest Talkback: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT

Will this Be the Year?
10:23 PM EDT - 28 April 2002 | Fifty-seven Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 06:46 PM 05-10 EDT



Actually, for a major system the answer is probably not. But this does not forgoe the need for education and preperations on a possible major system. Once again I must state my distaste for general overhyping of hurricanes by media or elsewhere. It must be tempered with facts to balance it out.

Most of the time, storms will approach and turn away, most of the time what we do get will be relatively minor, but every once in a while (thankfully it is fairly rare) a major one, such as Andrew, does come by, and in these instances all of the preperation pays off. Educating yourself on what these storms can't do, and don't usually do is just as much important on what they can. People tend to focus on the destruction that these are capable of rather than what they usually do.

Hyping leads to apathy when something that really has the potential of causing havoc approaches. And once again this is more of a fear to me rather than the actual system itself. If a dangerous storm approached and most listened to the warnings, then the destruction and death would be kept to a minimum. On the other hand, if after a string of missed calls, people were apathetic or not watching and something did come along... even a lesser system (ie a cat 3 vs a 4) is capable of causing more widespread havoc then as far as people's lives are concerned.

Many people will ask, I'm going to visit Florida on such and such date... will a storm hit then? I tell them no, but always watch the weather, it could change. These events are rare usually. One strange year could have us seeing multiple bad storms, or we could go for a string of a decade or more without a massive one hitting. Our goal isn't to create hype, or tell you that this is THE YEAR. Our goal is to give you facts from various weather sources, and opinions from us and others, and let you decide.

We try to refrain from getting caught up "in the hype", but we won't downplay possibilities either. If you agree or disagree with what people are saying about a particular system, then this forum gives you a chance to state why. And in hopes, educate others and allow them the final decision. We always state to listed to the official sources first, but as a supplimental guide, you and I can help prepare everyone.

Thanks to all who have visited our site in the past 7 years. We are designing a new back end system to help manage the volume and the signal to noise ratio during the season. We have created off topic areas for those who talk and eventually go way off topic. Those who spam repeatedly the same message over and over will be removed, and everyone else can talk storms and learn, and have fun.

Thanks,

- [mac]




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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #15 (of 57 total)

2002 (#1)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 07:58AM 29-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQUS*)
Will this be the year? A question that can't be answered unless she is Mother Nature. I would say the odds are good for someone to be hit by a major Hurricane this year. I would also say the ingredients are there this year to allow for development of Major Hurricanes. QBO,SST,SLP and the most important NO or mild El Nino. So keep your guard up because this could be the year.


Re: Could this be the year? (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 08:38AM 29-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPT*)
Mike...excellent comments about the media hype and the apathy of the citizens of, IMHO, the Sunshine State. We have seen several storms since Andrew hit in 1992 that have come thisclose to hitting us, but thankfully turned away at the last minute....ie, Floyd. However, because they turned away, people I talk to "out there" seem to think that this will always be the case. Or, because we live inland, we won't be hit hard. It takes a lot of explaining (and exasperation) to try and educate these folks that if a Cat 4 or 5 comes barreling across the state, we aren't safe no matter HOW far inland we are. Then, again...people get this fake sense of security because there are idiots out there in radio land that talk about how the "gulfstream" keeps these storms from hitting Florida. That happened almost 3 years ago with Floyd..this radio station in Orlando went on the air AFTER Floyd hit and said that the reason it turned away was because the gulfstream was too "strong".


Hot!!! (#3)
Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland,Tx
Posted On 04:02PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*)
I can't believe how hot it is here for this time of year.I think we are suppose to break a record high today;by a bunch!


Gulf Stream (#4)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:07PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPRNRQT*)
i agree and disagree the weather systems that steers hurricanes drive the gulf stream so when floyd turned northwest becuse of the approching trough there was probally a southwest wind in the southeast gulf driving the gulf stream a bit stronger then normal. I no the gulf stream didnt turn floyd but it a screwy way of thinkin about it


1st Tornado death (#5)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:13PM 29-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNRPRNRQT*)
Well the 1st tornado death has finally happend wich makes this the longest the us ahas gone into a year without a otrnado death. An interesting thing is that the resulst is due diffrent storm tracks from the norm instead they arfe further west in less populated areas could this be a clue into what are hurricane season might be like?
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s894.htm



Is this the year? (#6)
Posted by: Derek Location: orlando, Florida
Posted On 08:43AM 30-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTW*)
I think there is a good chance that a major hurricane will come bearing down on Florida this year. El nino is not that strong and that makes it easier for hurricanes to develope. The only way will know if it's going to happen is when it eventually developes and moves across the Atlantic. Until then we need to be as prepared as we can and if it does happen we will know what to do. What I think is just an opinion, but i got it from the weather channel. They said that Florida has a 60% chance of getting hit by a hurricane. And a 57% chance of getting hit by a Cat. 3,4, or 5 this year. Lets just keep our fingers crossed that this will not be the case.


Complacent (#7)
Posted by: Rad Location: St Pete Beach
Posted On 11:40AM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VUNSTNXXNQVW*)
Is the word I am looking for , too many people get this way, As far as Hurricanes go. Especially the old Florida "CRACKERS" They have seen them come and seen them go . The tourist will flee, the transplants will be some what hesitant and I would say that there is a good majority of people living in Florida right now that have never experienced a "Hurricane" My concern is the evacuation , If a cat 4 or 5 storm would come into Pinellas county right now there would not be much left . Over the past few years it has been getting harder and harder to Drive around this county anymore. I have never seen so many backups and traffic jams in my 35 years of living here {yes I am a "CRACKER"} Not complaining , as I stated earlier the EVACUATION. People need to get out . Personally I will stay for a CAT 3 alot depends on landfall etc, etc. But a 4 or 5 {Hopefully Never} and I am gone. I just hope that everybody else can safely get off this peninsula too. Personaly on the upcoming season , 6 in one, and half a dozen in the other . We shall see what happens around my neck of the woods come September and October .


complaceny this prepare for that spam crap (#8)
Posted by: robert
Posted On 07:53PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VWNSTNSNVU*)
im bored lets get a storm out there so i can start saying its headed for me lol. i feel the wave mongoring in me coming out :-)
just a month away so close yet so far


Wild Afternoon (#9)
Posted by:
clyde Location: orlando
Posted On 11:22PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (VUNSSNQVRNRQU*)
Just wanted to hop on and post a quick note...for anyone who heard about the storms in east Orlando today (approx. 100 homes damaged). I had a birds-eye view from the 6th floor of my office of the storm; the damage occured about 1/4 mile away in a nearby subdivision. We had winds gusting to 80-90 mph for about 10 minutes, and to 50 mph for another 10 minutes after that, along with significant marble to golfball sized hail. Many trees down in our lot and surrounding roads.

Local newstations are saying possible tornado, but this looked more like straightline winds, although much more powerful than anything I've ever witnessed previously. From the 6th floor it was quite a rush...until we all found out later all the homes that were damaged. Still, to think that what I saw today would pale in comparison to a cat. 2/3 hurricane really humbles you.

Anxiously awaiting June...
Clyde W.


tornadoes (#10)
Posted by: HanKFranK Location: AiKeN, SC
Posted On 11:54PM 30-Apr-2002 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQSX*)
just a curiosity.. anybody know if there is a correllation between a late-starting severe weather season in the u.s. and the hurricane season? or to the configuration of storm tracks in the late summer and fall?q


Someone Will Get Blasted (#11)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 01:18PM 01-May-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
IMO this hurricane season has the potential to se a landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane somewhere in the CONUS, perhaps Cat 5. Could be a heck of a season, if El Nino is weak. BTW, is NOAA going release a forecast for 2002. Cheers!!


Clyde (#12)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:18PM 01-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNRY*)
I was tracking those storms with my radar software and showed a tornadic signiture along with large hail. It showed a meso signiture for over an hour with tops nearing 50,000ft. One more month to go.


Rad (#13)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg,FL
Posted On 03:27PM 01-May-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNRY*)
The trafic is bad especially out towards the beach. It takes me just about 45 mintues(tourist) to get from st.pete to st.pete beach. And who knows whats going to happen when we get that strong hurricane.


FIRST STORM (#14)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 05:09PM 01-May-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQWY*)
Last year wasn't Allison before June. I had a bet with a friend and I thought Allison was in May. Will this year be more spread out, throughout the season or will there be an early spurt and then a big lull? I sure don't know but I sure hope I'm not twidling my thumbs through June and July like last year.


Joe (#15)
Posted by:
Clyde Location: Orlando
Posted On 05:46PM 01-May-2002 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)
Hey Joe--looking at the damage pattern today on the drive in, I am reasonably sure that this was a straightline wind situation. Everything is blown down from north to south on both sides of the main damage.

I noted the rotation of the wall cloud as it approached, there was definite rotation. I wonder if it was a macroburst. Anyway, fun to know that someone was tracking what I was living yesterday!

Until June...Clyde


Allison (#16)
Posted by:
Rich Byett (http://www.stormwarn2000.com) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 06:09PM 01-May-2002 with id (RQSNQRRNVTNWY*)
Lonny,

Allison was the first storm of the season last year, but was not named until the 5th of June. However her origins can be traced back to a Tropical Wave that moved across the Atlantic and Central America in the last few days of may.



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