CFHC Talkback For News Story #61:
Newest Talkback: 10:16 AM 07-29 EDT

July... No Named Storms
09:28 AM EDT - 27 July 2001

Barring no last minute surprises, looks like we'll go through July with out a named system. However, this benefit will be short lived.

SNONUT (from one of our hosted sites), is predicting early August activity from the Cape Verde. And judging by what I've seen lately, I have no reason to doubt it. (Which, of course, is when I'm out of town 3-15th (hemisphere even))) Add to that a pattern is setting up which may be less friendly for recurving of storms... So it's likely storms will stay further south this year. Which means the Southeast, including Florida could have some close calls this year.

For now, though. Nothing much worth watching, although the activity with the waves coming off Africa will get more and more interesting.

August could ramp up quickly, so be on the lookout.

BR>
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Services - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #31 - #51 (of 51 total)

Still little convection (#31)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 11:37AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNUY*)


Yesterday I thought when I woke up I would see much more convection today. Not happening. I'am more concerned with the wave which is far north 15 degrees near the africa coast. Well have to wait and see I guess but feel less conf­   

joe (#32)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 11:46AM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNUS*)


i think the nhc did say that there wouldn't be much with it until it passed the lesser ant.let's wait until then and see what happens once it gets into an environment a little more favorable.it does seem to be winding up a little better;maybe that is a sign that we will see more ­   

Climatology (#33)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 01:14PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQXU*)


In the past 150 years there have been 50 prior seasons (first: June 30, 1857 last: June 11, 1999) with one or more storms in June. Of those 50 seasons, 26 did not have a July storm. Of those 26 seasons, the lowest seasonal total was 3 storms (1929) and the highest was 11 storms (1880 and 1906). For those 26 seasons, the average seasonal total was 6.5 storms, with an average of one storm making landfall in Florida in each of the 26 seasons (the range was zero to 4). I had wondered if the earlier years were sketchy at best in terms of record keeping, so I examined the seasons since the advent of weather satellite technology (1964). Of the 26 "June" seasons without a recorded July storm, 7 occurred after 1964. Of these seven seasons in the satellite era, the average seasonal total was 7.0 storms (the range was 6 to 8) with an average of one storm making landfall in Florida (ranging from zero to 3). Conclusion: Given the uncommon strength of the Atlantic ridge and its southward suppression of the ITCZ, the vertical easterly shear north of the ITCZ which causes even strong tropical waves to outrun their own convection and the recent decline in the number of strong (or even weak) waves exiting the tropical west coast of Africa, I think that its going to be a much quieter year than originally forecast. Climatology (weather history) certainly supports this notion. I would envision only 7 more named storms this season (a rather gutsy forecast) but I also feel that the overall Atlantic pattern might bring two of those storms into Florida. One more tidbit: Since 1851, no SECOND storm of the season has ever developed into Tropical Storm strength during the last 3 days of July - doesn't mean that it can't happen, but it does mean that it is unlikely. Looking at the current Atlantic conditions, I don't see much of anything happening for three or four more days.
Cheers,
ED

stronger? (#34)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:30PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNQQQ*)


are those storms forming around the center?could the time be near for this thing to start getting its act together?we wi­   

bahamma's (#35)
Posted by:
gary conley Location: jax, fla
Posted On 02:31PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNUV*)


TWC just had a update and said that the area down there may develop in the next day or so, and that they were watching it. Didi anyone else get to see that? I didnt catch all she had said about it.

what is with th funky letters? (#36)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 02:34PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQXNQQQ*)


does anyone know why my last two comments are ending in funky letters?

Funky Letters (#37)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa
Posted On 03:38PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)


In an attempt to fix the rare 500 error on posting I broke something else. I'm still working on that this afternoon.

Talkback postings working again. (#38)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa
Posted On 05:43PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VUNSSNQWNYW*)


Fixed. Sorry for problems.

Convection on the increase (#39)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, FL
Posted On 09:56PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RQVNSNQXRNYT*)


Looking at the latest IR satellite showing convection increasing a bit. NHC saying theres still a low level circulation near 12n at 1012mb. Shear, well theres some but less on southern side of convection increasing a bit north. So wont completely right it off.

chances 30-40%

when will it become td#3? (#40)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:53PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNQYRNQP*)


the thunderstorm activity is increasing with our wave.will it keep increasing and become td#3 very soon or will it have to wait until it pretty much reaches the gulf.what's your opinion?

TOMMOROW (#41)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 11:35PM 28-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPQNQVS*)


Well if storms persist thru the night, we should have a deppresion by sometime tommorow, will see!

kickoff? (#42)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Aiken, SC
Posted On 02:52AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (RPTNQQVNQVNQQP*)


there is still no imminent development at this hour. the two atlantic waves still look good. 57w is kicking up a bunch of convection near the islands.. this is the wave that the global models are all triggerhappy over as it nears the gulf, mid-late week. if the convection keeps flaring it might try something sooner. 33w wave has a 1012 low just north of its convective mass, which is basically an enhanced itcz. that one is on marginal ssts still, so probably wont develop before passing about 45w. globals still have lows off the east coast into next week, but it's kinda way out there in terms of potential. the atlantic waves are the ones that will go, if any. they're not gonna be fish spinners, if.
i'll lower to 60-40 before july is out.

MFR Model (#43)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 02:58AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNRQP*)


The MRF picked up on this wave 2 days ago out of thin air. Judging by the 0545z IR from noaa.nhc, it's only a matter of time. Everything seems to be coming together from a convection standpoint, and if said convection lasts into afternoon tomorrow, just wait for it to start wrapping. And I know it's still early, but I still don't see a "killer" storm out of this particular wave, but my prediction of TS to Cat 1 stands depending on various factors. Assuming the east to west flow remains in the Gulf for the next few days, paint your bullseyes on the mid to upper TX coast. There are two other scenarios - one, if the trof currently around the mason-dixon line sags down into the gulf, the wave stays south. If the trof stops somewhere around 35-38N, possibly the flow around it could bring a sharp turn into N Florida. Should the wave remain mostly disorganized (up to weak tropical storm strength or say 1005-1008mb), look for it to spread rain along the immediate northern gulf coast. If the wave (or whatever it is at the time) would happen to slow down south of LA where the Gulf Water is currently in the high 80's, greater than anticipated intensification is possible.

I think we're all going to have a fairly decent handle on this storm by Tuesday am. And I also think it starts the conveyor belt in motion.

Steve

Re This Season (#44)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 04:22AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPRNRT*)


Good post, Ed Dunham, though I'm still with Dr. Gray in thinking that this season will be active. Warm SST anomalies are impressive, and it's not at all uncommon for conditions to be hostile in the early season--re 1998 and 1999 most recently.

On a tangent of sorts, I've also noticed that east Pacific activity has been very modest so far; this may bode well for a more active Atlantic season, IMO.

getting close!! (#45)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 08:03AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNQYRNQP*)


it looks like all we need is a closed circulation and we will have td#3 in the caribbean.does anyone think that could happen today?i guess the nhc doesn't think so since they are still not saying anything about it in their tropical outlook.what do ya'll think,though?

Carribean Heating Up (#46)
Posted by:
Mark Location: Cape Coral Florida
Posted On 09:01AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (QRNWWNQSRNRRX*)


This mournings satellite pictures and surface reports are showing an increasing area of thunderstorms entering the eastern carribean. Water vapor images show a weak upper high in the area but also a upper low north of Puerto Rico moving southwestward creating a increasing shear effect along the northern boundries of this tropical wave. If this upper low continues southwestward upper level winds will become unfavorable over the next 24-36 hours in the central carribean not allowing this wave to develope. Models still show an active wave but no longer close off any system into a TD. NHC still disregards this wave but I believe this will change at the 11am advisory as this mournings satellite maps are available. As of 8am there was no sign of mid or low level circulation with this system but thunderstorms are increasing rapidly near the islands but this may be enhanced by the approaching upper level low to its northeast. Right now this wave has two things going for it. 1) Water temp. are in the mid 80's 2)Upper air is favorable(for now). It also has one thing against it 1)Upper level winds are increasing to its west and north due to this upper low approaching in the area. This is why I don't see this area developing but it does bear watching. Farther out in the atlantic around 35 west we do have a low level circulation with a strong wave and this does bear watching for further developing in the next day or so.

Mark, (#47)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 09:13AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNRQR*)


I noticed that about the models too. It doesn't look like they want to close this one off any longer - may well be from the upper low. MRF and NOGAPS are also taking the energy further southward, possibly entering Central America. The keys to the direction and the intesity come from the upper low and the trof coming down from the north. Indications now are that the trof may make it all the way into the gulf placing a blocking high in its wake across the Northern Gulf.

Steve

what is happening? (#48)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 09:25AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNQYRNQP*)


it seems like every time something starts to pick up in the tropics,something negative pops up to prevent it.i'm starting to believe this other wave that everyone is talking about around 35w will be a bust too.i think i will agree with the guy who posted yesterday about this being a below average year.doesn't seem like it is meant to be this year.all this talk about the bermuda high and ridges i don't think will mean a hill of beans this time.sour grapes,maybe.just want something to happen,that's all.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION (#49)
Posted by: chuck
Posted On 09:31AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (RTNRXNUSNVQ*)


FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST THINGS GET KIND OF
INTERESTING. SINCE LATE LAST WEEK THE AVN HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A
WAVE/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND THAT WAVE HAS NOW REACHED
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THAT AREA AND THE
AVN SOLUTION DOES NOT LOOK THAT BAD. BUT THERE SOME INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENTS AND THE AVN...ETA AND UKMET AGREE TO SOME DEGREE ON A
SOLUTION. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ANOTHER TUTT LOW HAS SPUN OFF IN
THE AREA OF 25N AND 65W WHICH IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW AND HELPING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALL 3 MODELS HAVE THE TUTT
LOW MOVING OFF TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST PLACING IT IN THE MIDDLE
BAHAMAS/CUBA AREA BY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HISPANOLA/TURKS AND CAICOS REGION. BELOW THAT
WILL BE EITHER THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
OR A NEW WAVE. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CURRENT WAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN OUTRUNNING THE UPPER LOW BUT
EITHER A PIECE OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE BREAKS OFF OR THE
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS A WHOLE NEW WAVE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...BUT A
SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY.

AS STATED EARLIER THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER FLORIDA RETROGRADES
AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD BUT THE TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTS
OUT ON WEDNESDAY CUTTING OFF A TUTT LOW IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME THE TUTT OVER THE BAHAMAS FILLS AND A RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND CUBA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE
WAVE WILL BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA AND WITH IT ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR
THIS. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ALREADY HAS INCREASING
POPS BY MID WEEK I WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND AND JUST
DELAY THIS A DAY.



keith (#50)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 09:38AM 29-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPVNRQ*)


remember it is only JULY. it will pick but please don't wish for so much. these storms destroy peoples property and lives. it's one thing to observe the conditions and comment on them. i for one hope we have none that strike land.


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