CFHC Talkback For News Story #63:
Newest Talkback: 02:55 AM 08-21 EDT

Debby On The Move
10:49 AM EDT - 20 August 2000


5pm Update 20 August 2000

Hurricane Watch issued by the Government of the Netherlands Antilles.  Watch for St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.   Tropical Storm Warnings for Antigu, Barbuda and Anguilla. Watch may be upgraded to a hurricane watch later tonight or Monday morning.

Original Update:

As expected, tropical depression #7 is now Tropical Storm Debby! 

Heading toward the northern Caribbean Islands.

Intensification is predicted and is expected to be a Cat 1 Hurricane by Monday morning

Keep in mind to Refresh (Reload) the news page often especially during update times and when the important weather statements above do not completely load up.  Mike is working on that problem.

I'm not going to make any predictions on the strength and direction at this time, I will leave all that up to you in the comments. For those who do not read the "other peoples comments" there are some very good predictions by qualified folks who post from time to time. Just remember this site is not an official weather source!  Check it out.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #16 (of 37 total)
MY POSTION AND PERDICTIONS ARE ON SO FAR (#1)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 11:08AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNSYNSWNRTY*)

GOOD JOB HERE GUYS AT CFHC. EVERYONE MY TRACK AND POSTS IS LOCATED IN THE LAST NIGHTS DISCUSSION PAGE #10 I FEEL IT WAS.. SO FAR I'M RIGHT ON WITH THE SAME AYNALISS WITH THE NHC POSITION AND FORCAST ..BUT WE ARE ALL DIFFERENT MAYBE DEBBIE WILL PROVE ME WRONG,,WE'LL SEE
Debby (#2)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 11:34AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQXW*)

I feel Debby will hit the Gulf Stream and follow the Florida coastline to the north before heading out to sea. I have seen many storms do just this when in a location where Debby is now, and where she is expected to be in the next few days. We will see.
trying to help Andrew onmy mind (#3)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 11:39AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQUR*)

the bermuda high is starting to streangthen and move west in tandem with debby there is a slow moving trough possibly forcasted to be moving in on wed thur, and the high may start to weeken on thur cusing a northwest turn as debby enters the bahamas. Debby could also have winds from 100 -135 knts. I am gathering all this from offisal forcasts and discussions on numerous sites, and what models are predicting i also hold faith in what mike andersons model says and trantech model is forcasting
Debby (#4)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:40AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNQXUNSU*)

Well Debby is a Tropical Storm with winds at 45 mph at the moment. I think she will be a hurricane by tomorrow morning and will likely impact some of the Leeward Islands as such. I think the track will take her just north of Guadeloupe before heading out towards Puerto Rico. After that i would not like to say. As for intensity, Debby will probably be a cat1 hurricane when she reaches the islands, but may intensify to as strong as cat 2. Her structure is good, with great banding features. The circulation is large, and the effects of Debby may begin to be felt as early as late tonight. We all seem to be concentrating on the storm, but dont forget that the waves will increase ahead of the system so the coastlines will become dangerous before the storm nears. I will be updating my site around 10pm UTC this evening, and expect to upgrade the 'Extended Watch' to a Tropical Storm Watch, or a Hurricane Watch for some islands. I also anticipate issuing High Surf and Coastal Flooding advisories for some islands in relation to Debby.
Persons in the Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico need to monitor this sytem closely, follow official information, and be prepared to protect life and property.
And on a different note.... you may remember that a a week ago we were talking about an un-named Tropical Storm that developed south of Nova Scotia behind Alberto, on the end of one of the feeder bands. Well the remnants of that Tropical Storm reached southern UK on Friday, and brought us extremely heavy rains, a few thunderstorms, and gusty winds!
Any way, take care people, and i will post soon.
Corrections to previous comment (#5)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 11:50AM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNRPNQUR*)

i meant the high pressure could start weakening on wensday due to the approching trough but what scares me is that how close debby may come to florida if all holds true debby will start turning furrther south then floyd last year and could comea lot closer to the coast then floyd wich wouldent be good becuse i expect debby to anormous in sise even if debby stays 200 miles off are coast effects will be felt along th coast
Debby is Going to Be a Show Stopper no Matter Where She Goes (#6)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 12:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRV*)

Title of this says what I mean to say. However, I thought I saw an eye starting to form on the last frame of a Caribbean Satellite loop from the NHC. It is some what obscured by a Central Dense overcast but appears to be starting to peek through. Of course, I may just need more sleep and this is just a fluke of photography.

Debby's future (#7)
Posted by: Alex K.
Posted On 12:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNQTNQSRNQSY*)

Even though there may be a chance of some recurvature in the long range models, Debby would have to recurve alot to not effect the coast altogether, because its circulation is already so large, and quite a bit of intensefacatiton is possible in the next week or so. I kind of agree with Robert.
Transtech Model (#8)
Posted by: OrlandoDude Location: O-Town
Posted On 12:31PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRYNQQY*)

Just a word of advise.. Don't pay much attention to the Trantech Model. It is a developing model that isn't very good (no offense Gary)as of yet. Infact even Gary Gray usually ignores his own model. While Gary Gray's forecast is usually excellent and has one of the most comprehensive and oldest sites out there, his model leaves little to be desired. Again, no offense Gary, your discussions and forecasts are by far one of the best.

comments (#9)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn,com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 01:52PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXYNRQY*)

your right orlando dude,,,,,Gary is one of the best in discussions,,i always respecthis input and wait to hear what he says,,,,but the trantech model is 20% accurate and I wouldn't go by that model at all,,,,the NOGAOPS AND UKMET are the 2 best models and the AVN is 40% in locations,butseems to overdue the strength of systems like the MRF.
Other than that,,Mary,,you do need some sleep..the center if anything is on the sw side of the dense overcast,,there is no eye.
Gulf of Mexico (#10)
Posted by: Richard (http://www.atlantic-technologies.co.uk) Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 03:25PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSSNQRY*)

Just a brief posting to ask if anyone has noticed the convection that has flared up off the FL, AL coast... I understand it is located at the end of a stationary front. Convection flared up in the same area yesterday afternoon.
Gulf Flare up (#11)
Posted by: Mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 03:29PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRRV*)

Yes I have noticed it. So far it is just thunderstorms forming on the sea breeze.
Gulfstream Comment (#12)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:50PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWS*)

I realize that what the poster was saying about the gulfstream, and I understand. I want to make an important point though: the GULF STREAM has nothing to do with where a storm goes...look at Andrew, for example...not trying to be argumentive, but don't think the GulfStream protects, because is DOES NOT. The most important factors are these: ridges, troughs, wind direction....Regards, Colleen
Debbie (#13)
Posted by: Rick Shade Location: Mobile
Posted On 05:28PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNUX*)

The Navy website indicates a path just north of the islands...but south enough to definitely affect the U.S. We have a problem on our hands. The only question now, is how large a hurricane..and where it will hit.
Debby (#14)
Posted by: Bruce Location: Palm Bay Florida
Posted On 05:33PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXT*)

I agree with you Colleen, the factors you listed do indeed determine where a storm will go. I do feel the Gulf Stream does play a role in a storms movement no matter how small that role may be. To many storms have followed to coastline from South Florida to New England to say that it doesn't.
Debby not Debbie (#15)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 05:35PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSR*)

Not to be critical but a few folks are spelling the name wrong. I know Debby can be spelled many way's Debbie, Debi, Debby. Put this particular storm is Debby. Just thought I would throw that in. :)
Debby (#16)
Posted by: Jonathan Location: Indialantic, Fl
Posted On 05:55PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (RPWNQVXNUUNQW*)

All of you guys are looking way too far into the future of this storm. The forcasts you w=must be looking at are out 120 hours... That is way to far to tell what will happen. Just wait and see
um jonathan (#17)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 06:17PM 20-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNRUR*)

when you have a 72 hour forcast track that has a pretty big hurricane on wnw heading placed in the souteastern bahamas the chances are pretty damn great were gonna get something from this system and the models dont even talk of a turn till 96 hours and that is to late if it is already in the bahamas!
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