Debby Goes West
08:54 AM EDT - 21 August 2000
Debby is doing its best to confuse us right now. It has stayed weaker (although I expect this to change as it gets closer to the islands), and it has moved more west than I thought it would. Which does bring it closer to the islands, and now nearly inevitable that it will cross right over them or just to the north, but not north enough. It's increased forward speed too. Tropical Storm Watches are up for many of the islands in the NE Caribbean. And for Puerto Rico, St. Maarten, and the US Virgin Islands, we have a hurricane watch. I'm going to hack on the cfhc news code a bit and hope to have San Juan weather updates pop up on the main page shortly.
What does this mean for the future of Debby? Well it means a lot of questions, there is a good chance now that it will go through the islands and Hispaniola or to just to the south. The most likely scenario is that it still could pop north. Will it pull something simialr to Georges? Could be. We'll have to watch, because I expect things could change. Taking a look at the various models this morning shows nearly every possibiltiy in that time frame. (North into the Bahamas and near South Florida, South into the Gulf, or through Hispaniola and Cuba)
The only question now for the islands, is how strong will it be when it gets there. Good question, and one I cannot answer confidently. Prepare for a hurricane, a category 1 or 2 I would imagine, and hope for better (like just a Tropical Storm). The best thing to do now is to not take my advice and rather listen to official sources and follow the advice of the local emergency management agencies.
John and I both plan to be on our Live Chat at 8PM Eastern (01:00 GMT) for at least one hour tonight.
Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)