CFHC Talkback For News Story #70:
Newest Talkback: 12:55 AM 08-24 EDT

Debby Weakens Temporarily
11:08 AM EDT - 23 August 2000

5PM Update:

The NHC lowered windspeed to 50MPH, but Debby is still not looking good at all. If it goes into Cuba I doubt it can survive. The other choices are going north or south of Cuba, and that's about a 50/50 shot for either. Debby did the unexpected, will the unexpected happen again?

1PM Update:

Mandatory Evacuation Ordered for all non-Florida Keys residents in the Florida Keys effective at Noon Today

Debby is encountering more sheer and land effects, and isn't looking as good as it did before. The center of cirulation is on the west side of the convection, so it is having trouble again. Debby looks like it won't restrengthen until tomorrow. This is an unexpected twist in the story of Debby (or at least, I didn't expect this) and the storm may wind up repositioning itself to survive, if it survives. Thanks Steve H. & Brian for bringing this to our attention.

Alberto has become Extratropical as well and is no longer being tracked.

Debby's Low Level Circulation Center racing away
Debby's Low Level Circulation Center Diving into Hispaniola Reform possible?


Original Update:

Due to some interaction with Hispaniola and a bit of shear Debby went down to Tropical Storm this morning. A strong tropical storm. It should rebound later tonight and tomorrow when it moves away from Hispaniola and strengthen. The southern inflow is being affected by the mountains there.

The current NHC forecast track takes it up South Florida (over Key Largo) over Florida toward the core of the state to the western side with a hint of a northerly turn. This could be shifted left or right more later... So the Keys must take it seriously too.

There are some indications that Debby may slow forward motion too, so it looks Friday Night- Saturday timeframe for landfall at the moment.

Several Models put it into the Gulf, including the MRF, which means folks in the panhandle, Alabama, etc. will want to watch it too.

Still a lot of speculation. It still could go into the Gulf, but the South Florida scenario is still more likely. (Getting to be 50/50 chance wise). Still a lot up in the air.

We are tentively scheduling a chat at 7PM tonight lasting for as long as we feel the need. Jim Williams at
Hurricane City will be doing another live broadcast at 8PM.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)

Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Weathervine Storm Intercept Team's Audio and Video broadcasts
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #23 - #43 (of 64 total)

forecast models (#23)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 01:46PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


could this be the reason for the huge differences in the forecast models. could some of the models have anticipated this and forecast based on the new center while the others were still fixed on the original?

Debby falling apart badly. (#24)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 02:10PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


I would not be surprised to see Debby downgraded to a TD by the 5:00 PM EDT update. Recon stated the center was only 5NM from the coast. I am beginning to doubt that Debby will survive through the night.

Debbie Dissipating (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:19PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Believe this is happening, an answer to prayers!

IHS,

Bill

About Debby (#26)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 02:38PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)


Snonut wrote in response to this:


Mike-

I sure did notice that. Extremely interesting. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it except....it sure is not getting back to hurricane status very soon thats for sure.

I guess two possibilities exist....LL cloud swirl will continue west and develop more
convection over time...like 12-24 hours and become a "new" Debby....or the more likely scenario for a new center to re-form under the deep convection as you said.

Ramifications for Florida....If LL swirl takes over down the road it is going to be of little concern to Florida as it will head WEST into the gulf...by way of south of or over cuba...this is best case scenario for florida...and that LL Swirl will make good headway
being pushed by the LL steering.

On the other hand...if a new center forms under the deep convection we're back where we started only a day or so behind schedule...since the center will be clear of the islands and will head on a more w.n.w. track from a further north starting point.

Very interesting to say the least...I've not seen anything like this in a long time.

Gonna make for some interesting updates in the hours ahead!


So true...


On the same token. (#27)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA
Posted On 02:42PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)


It's very possible that Debby could just dissipate. (Best news of all) However, don't let you guard down, though. It could pull another crazy stunt.

so much for forecasting.. (#28)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:45PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


well, debby has come undone today. its that persistent westward jog that avn among other discredited models kept leaning towards. throw a sloppy little storm like debby at the coast of hispaniola and watch it splatter. last night most people (myself included) were talking about a major hurricane landfall in south florida; now all we have is a low cloud swirl racing away from its convection. i dont see clear evidence of a center reformation or any convective help coming to the stranded llc.. unless debby does something (else) unexpected, this storm is done for. between the north coast of haiti, the south coast of cuba, and the upper low over the yucatan.. debby will probably get chewed up. knock on wood, watch this storm botch another forecast.
totally dumbfounded... take it easy folks.

LLC (#29)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 03:00PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


I CAN'T EVEN FIND THE LLC ANYMORE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE. I GUESS IT IS STILL THERE, BUT IT'S NOT AS PRONOUNCED. COULD THIS BE AN INDICATION THAT ANOTHER CIRCULATION IS TAKING OVER?

Debbie (#30)
Posted by: Chris (
http://Chris) Location: Mobile
Posted On 03:07PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNXUNWWNRST*)


I enjoy reading everyone's predicitions, some based upon current meteorological data, some based upon wishes. As you all know, no one knows what Debbie will do until she does it. (Just like a woman!) Call me in a week and I will tell you what Debbie did.

Bye-Bye (#31)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:24PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUNTTNQWQ*)


DEBBIE DOES DOO-D00

Don't be decieved (#32)
Posted by: Pensacolian
Posted On 03:26PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQXX*)


Frederic in 79' was a TD all the way to the Gulf over Cuba and then exploded, I'm not writing ANYTHING off.

AGREED (#33)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 03:34PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


EVEN IF THE CIRCULATION HAS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION WHEN IT ENTERS THE GULF, IT COULD FLARE UP VERY QUICKLY. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE, WATCH OUT NORTHERN GULF STATES. BUT, IT HAS TO GET THERE FIRST.

This season is two wierd (#34)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 03:51PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNSR*)


what the HELL happend, it like the car stopped but the body kept going.

Well anyways the LLCC is defintly dieing but im not ruling out what is looking like a knew LLCC if nothing improves in the next few hours debby died Via Car wreck into a mountain

There is a new pulse (#35)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:06PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRUNTTNQWQ*)


Ya all take a look at the latest infa red and visible--see what ya think?

YOU THINK DEBBY GONE?? YOUR WRONG (#36)
Posted by: scottsvb (
http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:10PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXUNWV*)


Just to let everyone know,,click on the url for my site i post what i feel will happen on my home page,,takes 5 seconds,,,,and in brief here,,,she will come back south of Cuba actually and move nw later,,,more details are on my site,,please go there and i will expain more.
scottsvb

nogaps & avn Models (#37)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 04:20PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


Both of these models predicted this westward and even west-southwestward movement and weakening this morning followed by rapid intensification later just west Southwest of Cuba. This could become an even more serious situation for the northern Gulf if this occurs. Gerry, I do agree that there has been a very small flare up around the center and look for this to continue as soon as the center gets off the coast.

Gerry--New Pulse? (#38)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:22PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTW*)


Could explain where you see it? Thanks!!! I am not very good at this lol!!!

Well, I'm stumped. (#39)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 04:24PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


Whats left looks like a tropical wave. I sure can tell anything from surface obs or definative from the sat pics. While there still may be a LLCC, it doesn't look very viable. I really can't see any significant for a circulation center in the convective areas. I'll be very interested to see if the Hurricane Hunters find anything.

Erk. Hit post instead of preview (#40)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 04:25PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)


can tell= can't tell.

Recon (#41)
Posted by: StormHound Location: O-Town
Posted On 04:36PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)


Seems like we could sure use some recon flights about now to try and figure out what's happening.

West, then back in the Gulf as a mean woman..... (#42)
Posted by: Rick Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 04:50PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNXUNWWNQXT*)


she is simply biding her time. She can't possibly build up on land...but the low level circulation is there, as well as temperatures in the water she is about to go back over, well in the upper 80's. Anyone who thinks this is over doesn't realize that if she were just a depression, we'd all be saying she is gonna form once she goes back over water...so what's changed?
It should be obvious that once she re-emerges, it's a new and more dangerous ball game for those on the northern Gulf Coast.....

new nhc forecast (#43)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 04:56PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


This seems like an interesting track considering the more westward movement. They are still forecasting a sharp turn northward in 48 to 72 hrs. Can someone explain why the turn is even sharper than it was before?

Interesting forecast (#44)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 05:01PM 23-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


I'm not too sure the current strength isn't overstated. I find myself wondering if the storm can survive a trip over Cuba.


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