CFHC Talkback For News Story #75:
Newest Talkback: 07:27 PM 08-25 EDT

Cindy, Dennis & Emily.. (feel free to comment)
05:19 PM EDT - 24 August 1999

Somwhat of a surprise to return back home to not one, but TWO new Tropical Storms. Dennis has formed in from TD#5 and Emily has formed from a disurbance east of the Islands.

Emily is sitting and spinning and may cause the Caribbean a headache soon. And Cindy is still making a move toward the west, but still the furthest out.

In the east Atlantic is another wave that may form within 2 days. (4 storms at once? Pretty possible)

Of course, Tropical Storm Dennis, the most immediate threat. It's moving west northwest now and Storm Watches are up for a portion of the Bahamas. The $10,000,000 question... Where will it go? NHC's thought. In 72 hours it is 200 miles EAST of Daytona Beach, Florida. And will miss us. However this is not set in stone yet, and it will be a very close call, so it is imperitive we watch it. Most forecasting models (With a few exceptions) are now in agreement that it takes it north of us. Too far to say exactly where. Like Bertha (1995) and other storms in the past, the timing of the TURN will make or break us. This line of thinking gives the folks in North Carolina's coast something to worry about again--and they have had more than the fair share lately. Florida is NOT in an all clear--don't go to sleep on this one. I regret I will be fairly busy until Thursday Night so site updates will be sporadic. (I'll use any chance I get, however). Use the comment capability below the story headline to comment and discuss this, because I need some thoughts on what the storm will do.

I need to go through all our information and post again. Note that all three systems are expected to be Hurricanes by two days. (Possibly sooner)
For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #19 (of 40 total)
DENNIS (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:02PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNRS*)

Looking at the the loops it appears that the cente of DENNIS is to the west of the convection , the center has been trying to wrap the convection around it all day long, im sure this will happen later this evening as the upper ridge is moving in tandum with this system, For folks along the Florida coast this is what i expect , im holding to my thoughts at this time expecting DENNIS will come close and a possible brush with the Florida coast is very possible,Some models are coming closer than a brush ,the models are as follows, GFDL has the system at 25.8 N 79.2 W heading and speed 318. /8.4 on its 78 hour forecast, other models are BAMD, and BAMM, I will be on and posting from time to time tonight thats it for now Mike Anderson Florida wx.
Dennis (#2)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 08:11PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (VSNRRNPNVY*)

Mike or anyone what, if anything, will the current stationary movement (or lack of movement) do to forecasts?

Where are you getting the GFDL info?

You've been going against what I've heard from the local media and NHC with the forecast. What's the reasoning?

- Curious in Palm Bay.


Dennis (#3)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 08:40PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTPNQWS*)

I believe that the current "stall" of TS Dennis is temporary; however, if it does become a trend, it would most likely cause the system to be pulled northwest and northward earlier than expected. BUT, there would be a very slim chance that the trough over the southeast U.S. would pass up Dennis...and with slightly greater chances if Dennis's center of circulation re-forms farther south beneath heavier convection. As noted before, the former situation would be most likely.

I think that the Hurricane Center's forecast track is on target. Dennis will not make it to east Florida before curving northward. The cloud motion to the north on satellite imagery also indicates that any motion past 24 hours would likely be more northerly than westerly. Granted, some of this cloud motion can be attributed to southwesterly wind shear, however.

About the GFDL model run...The GFDL no longer brings Dennis over/near Florida. The new run curves the storm well before reaching Florida as do most other models.

With this said, tropical cyclones can be very unpredictable. Hurricane Erin of of 1995 was in a similar location and situation as Dennis. Erin did move northwest for a time, but veered westerly across central Florida, re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.


DENNIS ? ? ? ? ? ? ? (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 10:55PM 24-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNRX*)

Well im not convinced that the trough will pick DENNIS up and start the north movement, nor am i or was i trying to give the impression that it would make a landfall on the florida coast, i was calling for a brush and ill give my thoughts as to way now,DENNIS is a poorly organized system, untill the system get's better organized the trough would not have much of an affect on it, the system has been trying to reform and i think it has a bit farther south and it looks like it is heading due west , im not ready to hang up my forecast just yet but i will be the first to admit im wrong if i am Mike Anderson Florida wx
Dennis?? (#5)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 06:28AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (VSNRQNWSNTU*)

This mornings models are beginning to support you slightly more Mike. But still I think the trough will pick it up, albeit later, soon enough to avoid the coast. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

Alex in Palm Bay


Dennis (#6)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 07:43AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNQY*)

Well, I'm starting to back down slightly on my forecast for a definitive northward turn. Dennis seems to be edging westward and with the uncertainty of the strength of the trough, Dennis could continue on a general west-northwest track, becoming a potential threat to Florida. For the time being, I still think that Dennis will turn northwestward, but at a later time than originally thought. I will say, however, that there is loads of uncertainty regarding Dennis's movement and a significant impact on Florida is possible.

Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
DENNIS (#7)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 09:50AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNUQ*)

Good morning ive been very busy this morning, well looking at the models they are supporting my forecast , and im not changing it, the trough to the north of this system will break down and should have little to do with DENNIS, I have been looking for a brush on the florida coast, looks to me like around the STUART area as i have been saying, im also saying that Dennis should really get going later tonight as the shear , minoe shear that has been affecting the system will lesson later tonight, PLEASE all residents alont the Florida coast keep an eye on this system as i really feel ot will come very close if not make a landfall along the south florida coast, ill be with you all again later tonight Mike Anderson florida wx.
mike anderson (#8)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 10:13AM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

Mike, you are looking like quite the hurricane guru. One question. Why do you have it so far south — as opposed to Cocoa or Daytona — and how far inland do you expect it to go?
Dennis / Mike A. (#9)
Posted by: Troy Orrest Location: Stuart, FL
Posted On 12:07PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I'm in Stuart and I am wondering the time table for this Mike. When would this be happening?

Troy
Dennis to Gulf? (#10)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 01:08PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWQ*)

As I look at water vapor the trough is dying out, I think ennis might make a track to the Gulf of Mexico. Thats the way i see it right now. The Longer its stationary the bigger the chance.
Dennis! (#11)
Posted by: In the Eye Jack
Posted On 02:30PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

DENNIS looks good now. I don't think it can go in the Gulf now (without first crossing Florida), though. It would have to go almost due west!


In The Eye Jack
Thats what I mean (#12)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 03:44PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWX*)

Similiar track as Erin in 95', over Florida and into the gulf.

SirCane
into gulf (#13)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 03:53PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It does look a lot like Erin, even to the place where it most likely would hit. But, with the recent increase in windspeed — from 45 mph to 65 mph in three hours — it could be much stronger. There could be some rapid growth right before it hits Florida simply because of the water temperature. The temperature is higher in the Bahamas than it has been in a long, long, long time.
If I'm not mistaken, Erin had winds of just 85 mph when it hit. By the time it got to Orlando, the winds were in the 40s. IF it crosses the state between Stuart and Cocoa, I would see Hurricane force winds in Orlando for the first time since Donna.
What do you all think?
HURRICANE Dennis (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Atwater Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:40PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSW*)

I have just finished reading the recon information on Dennis, and this guy is a hurricane now (4:42pm). It showed 66kt winds in the NE quadrant, so I would assume the 5:00 advisory will be acknowledging this as a hurricane. I am sitting and tapping my fingers waiting this one out as I have big plans this weekend for which I have to fly out of Orlando. Maybe I will and maybe I won't be going anywhere. Hopefully, we will all be safe. Let me know what you think.
Dennis (#15)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 04:46PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

Well the NHC still keeps it off of Florida but heading it up to the Carolinas. And Colleen it's still a TS, for now.

Mike's scenario is unlikely in my view.

Alex in Palm Bay
DENNIS MAY INPACT FLORIDA ??? (#16)
Posted by: MIKE ANDERSON
Posted On 04:52PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNTS*)

Good afternoon i have been busy all day, and did not have the time to post so im going to get right into it now, DENNIS is doing just what i expected him to do, the trough to the north is not as strong as forecasted by the models, this would have been the factor in hooking him north but as time moves on thats looking like the long shot i thought three day's ago, im expecting that DENNIS will stay put through the better half of the night and than begin to move WNW, DENNIS could reach hurricane status sometime late tonight or early morning, with all this in mind in holding to my forecast with a brush along the florida coast, in time i may update that tonight to a more landfall and ill give more factors as to why im forecasting this , Mike Anderson Florida WX.
Dennis (#17)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 05:07PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I'll be interested in seeing the later forecast from you Mike. It's been an interesting take on it. If you wind up being right (or fairly close) I'll eat my words, but I still thing it won't even get close enough to Florida for Warnings/Watches, but it will for SC/(Mostly)NC.

However, folks, just because I'm saying this does not mean that Mike's take is impossible. Far from it. I just think that the NC coast needs to worry about it more than Florida does. If my thinking changes on that I'll write something here ASAP.

Alex in Palm Bay
One More Thing... (#18)
Posted by: Alex Shevrovich Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 05:11PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNQWPNRPSNSU*)

I do think Dennis will be upgraded to Hurricane Status at 8PM tonight.

Alex in Palm Bay
Dennis Isn't A Hurricane Yet :-) (#19)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 05:24PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNUT*)

I am humbly apologizing to my friends here. Although I must admit, sometimes I get overexcited and you know....anyway, I was pleased for Florida, dissapointed for SC/NC with the latest advisory. The models are still going with the trough pushing this thing and I have no idea if they are right or not, but usually they are so,,,,I am going with them. Thanks!!!!
water vapor image (#20)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 05:28PM 25-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

It looks like Dennis isn't the only thing that hasn't moved. Look at the water vapor image. You'll see that since this morning, the western end of the trough has dipped slightly further south. The low pressure system over the midwest is furter east, as is the trough. But most the system has not moved any closer toward Dennis. With this motion, Dennis would have to move further west to be picked up by the trough, furthering the thoughts of a cross-state trek.
A quick question, doesn't it suck to be a hurricane watcher when the storm doesn't do ANYTHING ALL DAY.
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