CFHC Talkback For News Story #77:
Newest Talkback: 04:02 PM 08-26 EDT

Dennis now a Hurricane
12:46 AM EDT - 26 August 1999

At 11:45pm only 45 minutes after the 11pm advisory Dennis is now a Hurricane. (See *Tropical Storm Special Update) Still not moving. All feel free to comment on your prediction on the track Dennis will take.

For East Central Florida residents and guests looking for more information such as Evacuation Routes and Planning tips see the following pages: [Brevard] [Volusia] [Flagler] [Indian River] [Inland] [News Media]
These have links to the county sites which gives evacuation information and shelter locations.

Also our links page has links to other county EM pages.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
For more information on Emily see the Current Storm Spotlight for Emily.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Next 8 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #8 (of 29 total)
DENNIS AND THE SUNSHINE STATE (#1)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 01:25AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXX*)

Looking at the latest loop on DENNIS the center seems to be reforming again but this time to the SW, it really looks like the NHC forecast trak is NOT PANNING OUT, im starting to really lean toward's a direct landfall in the south florida area in along the lines of WEST PALM TO STUART,this system is really starting to bottom out as im seeing it now, im getting information that has DENNIS at 27.0 N 77.0 W 110mph / to the next pos of 27.0 N 78.5 W 115mph , this shows a clear due W motion as a ridge builds in from the east to west / BERMUDA HIGH, i have been going over all kind's of information and im still calling for a track change, As far as the trough turning him north , well that has all but passed and time will lean my way im sure of that so folks please be ready and pay attention , Mike Anderson Florida W
Dennis (#2)
Posted by: Joe
Posted On 07:39AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (TNQTNXVNRX*)

Ok guys, the models continue to show Dennis pulled to the north. Why does it seem to take the models so long to change?
models (#3)
Posted by: alan byrd
Posted On 08:00AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNTQ*)

The models are stubborn. If you look at the history of the models and this storm, they all have been completely wrong. If the models had been right from the beginning, we would have the storm next to Florida right now.
While all the models are in agreement that it will miss Florida, the path it takes is very wide.
Right now, though, I don't know how much trust I put into the models. I think they really have no clue and instead of saying that, they are just sticking to their previous posts until they get an idea of where it will be going.
That should happen today.
The way I figure it, is that the hurricane has to travel 200 to 300 miles within 36-40 hours to have any chance at being turned slightly to the north. After that, there is a break in the wind flow that will send it back towards Florida. It will have to travel about 400 miles in 48 hours to be really turned away from Florida.
If you do the math, at its current movement, it wouldn't reach the trough for 80 hours. In other words, if we don't see it at least double its current speed today, there will be no chance of hitting it. Plus, if the trough picks up speed, the times will be shortened.
The models don't show this because there are A LOT of what-ifs in this scenerio and we'll have to wait until today to see if they pan out.
DENNIS SLOW, MODELS HAVEING LUNCH (#4)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 08:07AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNXS*)

Goodmorning i have just a few things to say , we are now looking at DENNIS still moveing slow and most models have him still turning north, im sure now that themodels were baseint that on DENNIS moveing, but that window has been lost ,the best model's right now are the BAMD and BAMM moveing DENNIS to the west, the GFDL has DENNIS much faster and close to the NC coast in 48, you can throw that out the window as DENNIS would have to haul at 25 to 30 to make it in time and i dont see that , STICKING with forecast look for shear to lesson and DENNIS to move WNW, the threst to south florida is real and im going to give more as this day moves on ,later Mike Anderson Florida WX.
WHAT IF (#5)
Posted by: Evelyn Location: Gretna,La.
Posted On 09:01AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVX*)

Seen like we doing alot of what ifs on DENNIS I got a whar if for you Mike. What if Dennis gets in the gulf of Mexico any ideas of where it will might go.
GULF NO WAY (#6)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 09:11AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNRPT*)

ILL answer you question about the gulf, forget it DENNIS is moveing a bit slow but WNW, DENNIS is going to start to respond to a building ridge in the Atlantic soon (BERMUDA HIGH ) this is the ticket to the sunshine state, if the ridge builds as im thinking than a more W track would set up and than yes i can see a GULF shot, but the ridge is going to nose in slow as the trough moves out to the north. Mike Anderson.
Dennis to Florida? (#7)
Posted by: ~CirCane~
Posted On 09:15AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQXV*)

Its looking very likely right now, Dennis moving between 3 and 6mph is not going to turn this thing to the North. I think this thing will head WNW into Florida, into the Gulf. IF it does reach the Gulf I would expect landflal between New Orleans, LA to Apilachacola, FL. This could get intresting. Dennis is really beginning to be a Menace!!!

~~~SirCane~~~
what Category-Dennis (#8)
Posted by: mary Location: lakeland
Posted On 09:50AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNYV*)

What does effect does the prediction of Dennis during toward Florida have on the overall strength of Dennis. Will he strengthen before land fall or just sit it out as a minimal hurricane. Mike o anyone else who has the time to answer this would be helpful to us watchers who truly have plans to make.
Dennis (#9)
Posted by: Andy Location: Massachusetts
Posted On 09:53AM 26-Aug-1999 with id (RQVNQVTNRTXNRPU*)

One thing that seems to be underemphasized here is that Dennis has been and continues to be greatly sheared by west to northwest upper winds. This has not been anticipated (or initialized?) by the models at all. Where is this model error coming from? What effect does this have on Dennis' steering? Why are we sure it's going to lessen? Thanks....
-Andy
Show All Comments | Show Next 8 Comments

Return to Central Florida Hurricane Center Main Page