CFHC Talkback For News Story #81:
Newest Talkback: 08:57 PM 09-05 EDT

Ernesto and Shear
09:50 AM EDT - 03 September 2000

What originally made me go with the prediction of no named storms this weekend was the fact that shear was still pretty bad in the area that Ernesto was trying to form. It managed to anyway, but since then has been barely holding on. It's a definite fish spinner system as it heads toward that direction.

More interesting to me is the system in the Central East Atlantic that could form sometime this week. We'll wait and see.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #10 (of 26 total)
Yup (#6)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 06:50PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVNWWNQVR*)

I think JJ's right, since shear destroyed Chris, Debby, and Ernesto. Is that going to change some time soon?
The system in The Central-East Atlantic looks so elongated. I've never heard of a Cyclone going into South America before, but looks like it could. Could it pass over the Antillies and move west south of Jamaica; and get in the gulf in the long run?
The system in the gulf seems very circular but weak.

Darcy


Systems in tropical central Atlantic (#7)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 07:06PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Darcy-

Some systems have hit South America-
the last (named) one was in 1989 I believe, did terrible damage due to rains in Venezuela, and went on to hit Nicaraugau as a Cat 3 or 4 system. Joan, or was it Bret> I don't remember at the moment. It crossed almost all of northern SA as a tropical storm.

The system you mentioned is not likely to shear out like the other three, because it is at such a low latitude. It has an impressive ciculation, but, like an ice skater pulling his/her arms in to spin faster, so the system must do to develop.
Looks like it will develop, and yes, coming in so low, could end up in the Gulf.

Time will tell!

IHS,

Bill
South American Storms (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 10:18PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXX*)

Joan in 1988, Bret in 1993, and Cesar in 1996 all at least grazed the South American coast. All were destructive storms, as well. Fran in 1990 dissipated just short of the coast.
Interesting (#9)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 10:23PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNQTP*)

Thanks!
As you can see, I'm an amature with a storm interest in Ontario, Canada.
I enjoy getting leftovers of hurricanes like we've had Fran ands Opal.
I live on Lake Huron.

Atlantic (#10)
Posted by: Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 10:48PM 03-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNRY*)

Looks like this system is pulling itself together, and the one in the gulf is dying.


flash in the pan (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 08:44PM 04-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

hmm.. seems ernesto came and went while i was on a labor day trip. looks like i didnt miss much. havent we already seen that play this year? deja vu, chris. well, chris had its debby, maybe ernesto will have its florence. the trailing wave/low looks pretty ripe, if it will ever get organized. with that surface trough lingering in the gulf and the new front settling in, there might be one of those close-in gulf storms this week, also. money is on the wave 2-3 days out from the islands, though. that should be our florence, whenever it decides that the freebie upper high outflow and persistent convection merit a defined surface low. by the way, jj, you know your stuff with the history. always have a less than flashy outlook on development, always seem to go with the less hyped forecast. hey, it's working this year so far. when was the last time we made it to september without a u.s. tropical cyclone landfall? 1990? its been a while. this season is just goofy and weird.
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