CFHC Talkback For News Story #86:
Newest Talkback: 10:33 AM 09-11 EDT

TD#9 Forms In Gulf soon to move inland
08:47 PM EDT - 08 September 2000

At 5AM, TD#9 has left us.

Surprise Surprise, #9 forms in the Gulf. Moving into land areas causing a lot of Rainfall near the Texas/Lousiana coast.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 14 total)

gotta ask (#1)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:30AM 09-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


im just curious, why is the nhc calling that feature in the gulf a depression? displaced convection, unclear satelite signature.. and just a suggestion of a swirl made by some very light showers near the 'center'. these are the usual excuses used, any one of them really.. to not classify a low pressure area. this depression has ALL of them. ive seen at least three better looking tropical features this season that werent classified as such.. then again, i could find some indicators from the stations.. beaumont, tx was reporting e winds at 17mph, a good breeze, earlier. i dont think cameron, la, directly in the path, has had more than a gentle breeze, though. i wonder what reasons the nhc had for giving this one the nod.. this is one of the least worthily classified systems ive seen.
guess its back to watching the atlantic. at around 10n 45w there's an interesting feature, just a persistent blob. east and southeast of bermuda there is some upper ridging and plenty of surface troughiness converging in the area.. but if anything were to spin off in that vicinity it wouldnt bother anyone. there really isnt much to look at. so far this season is mellow compared to '99 and '98, and then '96 and '95.
night everybody.

Who Knows Frank? (#2)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:09AM 09-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPX*)


Good questions...no answers. You just have to have faith inthem I guess. Here's an interesting note: almost every paper I have read this morning has given the heads up for the hurricane activity to pick up...the reason for the dying canes/storms was due to MJO, an interesting feature that usually stays in the Indian Ocean but somehow made it to the Atlantic this year causing all the shear. If you can, read about it. It's called the Madded-Julian Oscillation. The Tampa Tribune has an excellent piece on it, you could probably look it up online and so the the Miami Herald. Colleen

MJO (#3)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:01AM 09-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNQWR*)


Thanks Colleen! If this is any indication, looks like we may be in for a strong El Nino (or for hurricanes, El Nono!).

Wonder why Dr. Grey never picked up on this (altho he implicitly recognized it with his comments recently that the season was going to pick up).
The weird season continues for now...a td dissipates in the NW Gulf in mid-season...amazing!

IHS,

Bill

MJO Etc (#4)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:54AM 09-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQYQ*)


http://www.gopbi.com/weather/storm/reports/090800season.html

Cheers,
ED

93L (#5)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:53AM 10-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Check out NRL and look at the TMI wind sector looks like 35 knots or so

New Test runs in GOM (#6)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 03:52PM 10-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9400) ON 20000910 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000910 1800 000911 0600 000911 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 26.5N 87.5W 25.9N 89.1W 25.4N 90.8W

BAMM 26.5N 87.5W 26.1N 88.9W 25.6N 90.3W

A90E 26.5N 87.5W 25.6N 88.4W 25.5N 89.6W

LBAR 26.5N 87.5W 25.9N 88.6W 25.6N 90.0W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000912 0600 000912 1800 000913 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 25.3N 92.3W 25.5N 93.7W 26.6N 96.3W

BAMM 25.6N 91.6W 25.7N 92.8W 26.1N 95.2W

A90E 25.5N 90.8W 26.0N 91.8W 27.1N 93.6W

LBAR 25.9N 91.7W 26.5N 93.0W 28.9N 94.5W

SHIP 36KTS 45KTS 58KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 26.5N LON0 = 87.5W DIR0 = 225DEG SPD0 = 5KT

LATM12 = 26.5N LONM12 = 87.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 87.0W

WND0 = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....





HELLO "C" BROTHERS.....WAKE UP!!!! (#7)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:20AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNST*)


Hey Sleepyheads...time to update the page!!!! Look what we have as of 1200Z September 11th:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL1000) ON 20000911 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000911 1200 000912 0000 000912 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.5N 72.1W 30.1N 73.0W 29.9N 73.7W

BAMM 30.5N 72.1W 30.4N 72.9W 30.5N 73.5W

A90E 30.5N 72.1W 30.2N 73.0W 29.9N 73.2W

LBAR 30.5N 72.1W 30.5N 72.7W 30.9N 72.9W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000913 0000 000913 1200 000914 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 29.9N 73.9W 29.5N 73.3W 27.8N 68.9W

BAMM 30.8N 73.6W 31.0N 72.5W 30.3N 67.7W

A90E 29.2N 72.6W 28.8N 71.3W 27.5N 70.0W

LBAR 31.4N 72.5W 31.8N 71.7W 31.5N 69.3W

SHIP 48KTS 54KTS 64KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 30.5N LON0 = 72.1W DIR0 = 250DEG SPD0 = 5KT

LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.3W

WND0 = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM


This IS already TD#10, although not officially declared...the T#'s are up from 1.5/1.5 at 1115Z this morning to 2.0/2.0 at 11:45z this morning!!! As you can see, this is not posted as a "TEST" it is posted as TD#10!!! Colleen

Good call Colleen! (#8)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:27AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


Good catch!

IHS,

Bill

Thanks Bill! (#9)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:46AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNST*)


Thanks Bill! Actually, between Gary and I, we have been finding lots of information together (somehow, we always seem to be on the same page at the same time!!)..If you read the TWO, and then the TWD (which actually calls it a 1008mb low) it completely befuddles me how different the TWO and the TWD usually seems to be!!!

Colleen

DEPRESSION 10? (#10)
Posted by: GREG
Posted On 09:57AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNRRWNSP*)


IF I'M READING THE POSTED MODELS CORRECTLY, THEY ARE PREDICTING A WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN FLIPPING TO THE EAST AND BACK OUT TO SEA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. AM I READING THIS PROPERLY?

The Big Picture (#11)
Posted by:
David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 10:05AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


Hello,

If you go to:

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/nwatl-wv-loop.html


The spinning low at 30/72 (ish) is probably going to come under shear and will not make it. Look at the huge pocket of dry air just over it. (the Bermuda area) If the low continues to move south it looks like it will be caught up in that trough and sucked out to the North East. Any different thoughts out there?

td # 10 (#12)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 10:10AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)


From what i heard the weather people saying this morning here. They are saying that

td # 10 (#13)
Posted by:
Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 10:14AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)


From what i heard the weather people saying this morning here. They are saying that the system if it develope's any stronger that it will be om a westward movement, but if it does not then it will stay away from land because the steering currents
would be strong enough to pull it out to sea.

Thanks, Gary!!! (#14)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 10:33AM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNTV*)


The models (right now) do take it out sea in 72hours, so we will have to wait and see. I haven't seen the AVN's initialization on this system, and all the other models depend basically on that one, so....it's already stronger than anticipated, at a 1008mb low (according to the 8:00am TWD), so it's really just a possibility right now. Colleen


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