CFHC Talkback For News Story #87:
Newest Talkback: 07:22 PM 09-01 EDT

Dennis and Wave
05:36 AM EDT - 31 August 1999

Dennis remains offshore of North Carolina and is slowing down as predicted. What happens next is a wait. It will sit and spin off the coast for a bit before making its move. Which could be out to see, closer to the NE coastline, or back towards North Carolina. It's been even more of a pain because there is a high pressure system to the north of it that is creating a gradient that has much enlarged the tropical storm force windfield. Making it ugly along the NC and Virginia coasts. Future track is really anyone's guess, and it may be weaker when it does, but that's not certain either.

Cindy is moving fast and away as a Tropical Storm and is almost done.

I jumped the gun yesterday when I predicted a TD#7. It did not form, and probably won't for a few more days.

Sorry for the lack of updates in the last few days. Hopefully we'll get the time to do some major work on the site soon.

For more information on Cindy see the Current Storm Spotlight for Cindy.
For more information on Dennis see the Current Storm Spotlight for Dennis.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 12 total)
Waves (#1)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 12:56PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

The Wave now west of the Cape Verde Islands looks like its slowly getting some convection around it today, but now just drifting wNw; this should develop into TD #7. There are a few other areas in the central and eastern atlantic that could develop over the next few days also. What's interesting is some energy and convection that seems to have gotten sucked out of Cindy (Emily entrails)and moved rapidly to the S/SW, NE of the Lesser Antilles. I don't know the current environment there, but it should be under the ridge that was between Dennis and Cindy. Looks like it may be worth watching during the next few days. Otherwise we'll see if Dennis gets some convection back or die a slow death as a gale.
Dennis Going West? (#2)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 05:55PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRSX*)

Hey, Dennis is going west again. Does anyone have any speculations on this one? Will he stay a solvent system and increase or will he just putter away on the coastline?
Dennis the Menace (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 06:06PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYVNSY*)

Boy, Dennis is really giving those forecasters a run for their money, isn't he
Colleen (#4)
Posted by: mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:31PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNUW*)

Coordinates are as follows for wind speeds:65 -82kts (74-95 mph)
83-95kts(96-110mph)
96-113kt(111-130mph)
114- 135kts(131-155mph)
>(greater than) 135 kts is > 155mph
So It sounds like one quadrant is at least at Cat 2 status and I really don't know how they would categorize the over all storm. I suppose the quadrants would all have to be at hurricane strength to keep it as a hurricane for maximum sustained winds. Yes it sounds like a government burocratic nightmare when the sum total of all the parts equals a hurricane that is supposed to be gone by now.
Dennis (#5)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 07:41PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXR*)

The shear on Dennis has moved to the north as per the tropical discussion, and no cold fronts are in the near future. Dennis will likely drift west/southwest during the next few days down the trough that actually cuts through North Central Florida, some of the models having him down to 31 degrees N then stationary for a day ot two off S. Carolina/Georgia. Sliding further south is doubtful, but not impossible. He will be coming over warmer waters again and with reduce shear may re-energize. Let's watch and see what happens. There still is the wave off in the East atlantic to watch, and a few others in the central atlantic, including that convection NE of the Leewards. This will be brewing again shortly, lots of potential out there. Keep watching.
Yucatan/Caribbean (#6)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 08:08PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNUS*)

The tropical wave in the western caribbean are suppposed to move into the Gulf by Friday, the upper level low int he NW gulf will stick around for 48-72 hours and would pull it to the North. This is just somethign to watch. I heard that some models indicate some development by Friday or this weekend.

~SirCane~
Wouldn't that be a Hoot? Dennis strikes again (#7)
Posted by: mary Location: LAkeland
Posted On 08:10PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QRNWWNQVRNUW*)

I don't want anyone to lose life or property but it would sure make for some interesting meterological studies if that darned ole Dennis showed up near Florida again. That complacency is dangerous that we have. I spoke with people during the height of the watches and warnings here in Central Florida, in person, who didnt know we were under a watch or warning, as a state, and the minute they heard it they shrugged their shoulders and said no big deal. I even had them telliing me that they thought everyone was making too much out of it. I have to ask myself if they would survive at all if the big one(Cat 5 + ever actually comes to central Florida from one coast or the other.
Central Florida (#8)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:39PM 31-Aug-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNTW*)

Mary - I think you are absolutely right!!! People here think they are safe because they are inland. There is an inland model on the NHC's website that shows if a storm came in at a Cat 5 on the East Coast, 110+ winds would be felt in Lakeland!! I just read in the Ledger an old article they did a long time ago about Lakeland being devasted by a hurricane. That's complacency for you!! As for Dennis, he's not over till the fat lady sings (Mother Nature in this case) as far as I am concerned. I don't remember the results for a Gulf Coast storm, but I am sure it's even worse. Well, more waiting, watching and wondering.
Gulf Coast (#9)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 09:13AM 01-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXW*)

I live on the Gulf coast and when a Hurricaem threatens you konow its gotta go somewhere because it is landlocked, gets really ancy!!

SirCane~~
Gulf Coast (#10)
Posted by: SirCane
Posted On 09:15AM 01-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNQXW*)

Sorry for the errors!!
Surf's Up! (#11)
Posted by: Tom Location: Cocoa, Florida
Posted On 10:16PM 01-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQUXNQYPNQQY*)

Well, I got the best waves I've ever surfed in Florida on Sunday and I would love for Dennis to move a little south and regenerate the swell! I know that may not be a popular opinion. Cowabunga!! :)
Welcome back (#12)
Posted by: Kristina Wood Location: Daytona Florida
Posted On 10:22PM 01-Sep-1999 with id (RPXNQUXNQYPNQQY*)

COME BACK DENNIS!!!! Man, Florida has had the best surf I've ever seen in the area. If it swells ride it, 8ft and all!!!! Beautiful....
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