CFHC Talkback For News Story #93:
Newest Talkback: 06:30 PM 09-14 EDT

TD#11 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean
11:20 AM EDT - 14 September 2000

2:30PM Mini Update:
Recon has placed the system a little to the north and east of the previous position, which makes the time that the disturbance is over land less. Things are becoming interesting with this system for sure. I think it's going to have a hard time staying together the rest of the day, but tomorrow we could see something entirely different. Speculation aside, everyone around the Gulf will want to watch it closely.

Original Update:
Nearly moving over the Yucatan Peninsula, this system will be on the minds of many in the Gulf states over the next few days. Predictions vary from West Gulf to Florida. With the history of this odd season behind us, I will say that anything could happen. We'll be watching it closely. Hopefully a better idea of what will occur will happen later.

Most questions come from the center of circulation's location. Will it move over the peninsula? Will the center shift about. It's moving toward the Gulf, which allows it to strengthen. A cold front will be closeby by the weekend, which adds to the complexity.

Where will it go, and how strong will it be is pure speculation at the moment. The models aren't up to par yet with it. (mainly because of the location of the center)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #8 - #28 (of 49 total)

latest recon (#8)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


The latest recon put the center of the storm at 20.7N and 87.19W. That means that the center has reformed or is moving slightly E of north. That will keep it off of land or on land for a very short time.
The wind speed was 15kts. Not very strong.

latest recon (#9)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 01:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


Alan, thats 20 degrees and 7 minutes or 20.1 N and 87.3 west.

andy (#10)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 01:49PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


That's the great thing about this message board. When you are wrong, someone is quick to correct it and you learn something new everyday. Thank you sincerely.
Does that mean that minutes are always rounded out to the nearest ten to get the decimal point?
And why wouldn't 19 minutes equal 83.2?
Just trying to learn.
Even with those coordinates, it's still not moving NW as the NHC says, but slowly NE.

Recon Coordinates (#11)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:55PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRT*)


Yeah, I don't understand that either, Andy. How would 20.07 be rounded to 20.1N and 87.19 be rounded to 87.3? You would think it would be 87.2..in any case, this whole thing befuddles me. This morning they had it at 19N/85W at 1200 UTC...which had it directly in the Yucatan channel...how did it move so quickly and become so disorganized in 2 hours

Latitude and Longitude info (#12)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 02:10PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNQR*)


The latitude and longitude are input in degrees, so you might need to convert to degrees from
degrees:minutes:seconds. There are 60 seconds in 1 minute and 60 minutes in 1 degree. So, for
example:

65:45:36 south latitude converts to

-(65 degrees +
45 minutes * (1 degree/60 minutes) +
36 seconds * (1 minute/60 seconds) * (1 degree/60 minutes))

= -65.76 degrees latitude



Recon Coordinates (#13)
Posted by: Andy
Posted On 02:11PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUXNSWNUP*)


the recon position was listed as:
20 DEG 07 MIN N
87 DEG 19 MIN W
This is approximately 20.1 N & 87.3 W
Its not being "rounded" to 20.1 it's being translated from Minutes to a fraction of a degree. Take the minutes and divide by 60 to get the decimal in degrees. For example 20 DEG & 30MIN would be 20 Deg & 30/60 deg or 20.5 deg. Hope I made sense......


Thanks (#14)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:15PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


But I still don't get it. I tried the formula and it didn't work out.
Keep trying. I'll learn eventually.

Now I get it (#15)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 02:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


Thanks Andy and Frank. Again this is what makes this web site so great.

Thanks Andy, Frank (#16)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRT*)


Thanks...that makes more sense. BTW, TWC just confirmed that this is making a more NNW movement in the last 2 hours....taking it further from land in moving it more towards the Yucatan Channel (where it was orignally positioned this morning!!!) I don't think I will ever understand any of this. Colleen

Gordon heading to the Gulf...then....??????? (#17)
Posted by:
Rick Shade Location: Mobile, Al
Posted On 02:26PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQRNQUNQPX*)


This thing will putz around down there...move north ever so slowly, and once it gets over the warm Gulf Waters..it will explode..or how about..dissippate? Who knows? One thing for sure...no one does..because if that front doesn't blow it out to the east...then it will have plenty of time to get it's act together. We shall see...I keep thinking the next 10 hours will tell the tale...but these things are better left to kindergarten kids to predict. The 'experts' can only guess. How are the upper level winds? Supposedly the outflow was going to improve over the next day...and then we could look for some possible rapid strengthening. It may well be that we will know what it does..after it does it. However, anyone in the gulf region...ought to be carefully monitoring this one.....I sure will be...

I Agree, Rick (#18)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:45PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSV*)


I personally think there are several lows out there that are trying to come together...John Hope pointed to the area ABOVE the Yucatan tip as the llcc; was that a slip or where he believes it actually is? TWT...but everyone should be watching....Colleen

Can someone tell me? (#19)
Posted by:
David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 03:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)


If you look at this loop:


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html


What is making that huge mass of disturbance seperate and move to the East?
Only at the end of the loop does there appear to be circulation.

LATEST SATELITTE IMAGERY (#20)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 03:19PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRVNRQTNYR*)


I THINK TD 11 IS A CLOSE RELATIVE TO DEBBY. IT NOW HAS LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HER ALLEDGED LLCC. ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS OFF TO THE EAST, AND IF IT DOES TRACK OVER THE YUCATAN, CHANCES ARE IT WILL NOT SURVIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFDL MODEL HAS IT DOING EXACTLY WHAT IT IS DOING, DYING OFF OVER LAND, REDEVELOPING OVER THE GULF, AND HEADING FOR S.W. FLORIDA AS A CAT 1 STORM. I THINK DEBBY HAS ALL THE COMPUTER MODELS SCRATCHING THE BACK OF THEIR PROCESSORS.

latest GDFL (#21)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:19PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNQSNRTXNT*)


The latest GDFL at 12Z 9/14 has this thing impacting land at 30.1N 87.4W (Al/Fla) line in 96 hours!!!

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/00091418

Then again, when has the models been right yet... Oh did I mention that ... NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS

td 11 (#22)
Posted by:
Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 03:41PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)


The WV loop shows the main plume of moisture streaming toward the Big Bend...the storm will remain east of that boundary...it is still a big question about where the main llcc will actually
stabilize if at all...the upper level flow is clearly sw-ne...the models taking this out to 90* are probably not going to hold up. EDS.

Seeing how..... (#23)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 03:47PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNW*)


recon relocated the center [I don't think it moved, just reformed] it seems to me that models run using the old inits are probably not going to be very useful. There appears to be some circulation in the visible. IR shots make it look like it has completely fallen apart.

New T#'s and Position (to the N and E) (#24)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:04PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSY*)


Look at this my friends:

14/1745Z 29.2N 73.4W T2.5/3.0 TS Florence
14/1745Z 20.3N 86.8W T2.0/2.0


Link

This means that the center of TD #11 has moved NE of it's original position, putting it directly over Cancan (or somewhere there abouts), not on land at all. Whole new ball game. Watch for the NHC to move it's track a tad to the right at 5:00pm...It's not falling apart at all. it just wants to throw us off guard!!!

Colleen



Hats off to ya Colleen- you are a good 'data digger'! :) (#25)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 04:07PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


IHS,

Bill

SURVIVE????? (#26)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:13PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNQRRNWP*)


THIS ILL-DEFINED LLCC HAS TO TRAVERSE OVER APPROX. 65 KM OF LAND BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER OPEN WATERS. IF IT WERE BETTER ORGANIZED, OR MOVING MORE QUICKLY, I COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL OF RE-DEVELOPMENT. BUT UNDER THE CIRCUMTANCES I FEEL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE OR NO FUTURE. WHAT IS EVERYONES THOUGHT?

Did it move south or reform in 30 min. (#27)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 04:13PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQVNXUNRSU*)


788

TPNT KGWC 141827

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SW OF CUBA

B. 14/1715Z (111)

C. 20.9S/1

D. 86.7W/1

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 25HRS -14/1715Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FINAL T

IS BASED ON DT AND PT.



MACHO




Jerry (#28)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:16PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNSR*)


That's according to the 11Am update..since then, it has been relocated several times...to the N and E away from land...so, yes, I think it will definitely survive.

MOVE?? (#29)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 04:17PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNQRRNWP*)


GARY--WHERE DID YOU PICK UP THOSE NEW NUMBERS


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