CFHC Talkback For News Story #94:
Newest Talkback: 09:28 AM 09-15 EDT

TD#11 Over Land or Not?
05:23 PM EDT - 14 September 2000

An interesting occurance is happening with Tropical Depression Eleven. Mainly the fact that its Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) is over land, but the mid level circulation is over water. Since its a relatively weak depression, this brings out some interesting possibilities. Officially the low level center is over land, and surface observations verify this.
1. It could die out over night over land. This is possible, and from Debby earlier in the year it can be shown to happen. Not a likely solution, but possible none-the-less.
2. It could keep its circulation center and move back over land and eventually form into a tropical storm. (Slightly more likely).
3. Most interesting of all, it could reform its center under the much better defined mid-level circulation out over the water now and slowly work its way into the central Gulf. This possibility allows it to become a hurricane. And the official statement from the NHC has it somewhere between 2 and 3, and calls for a hurricane to form later on.

Therefore, tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch this system. Folks along the Gulf could see anything from a damp rainstorm, to hurricane force winds sometime next week. I'm tending to think this will be a slow mover, and taunt us for a while. Expect the unexpected with this system. Models are virtually no help at the moment because the center is questionable. The entire Gulf needs to watch it.

TD#11

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #29 (of 29 total)

TD#11 (#1)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 05:31PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQS*)


Hello All,
Well what I see is a very disorganized system at the present but I tend to believe that what I thought could happen is happening already. The original center is falling apart and a new one is trying to form well to the northeast near 21.2north 86.0 west. If this takes place then we have a new ball game.. Models have no idea on this one due to its unsure center but if this system is more north and east at present than we may still see a n-nw to a ne movement over the next 48 hours. This one is going to be as unpredictable as all the rest so hang on for the show.

This may be slightly off topic.. (#2)
Posted by:
Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 05:48PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTT*)


but my eyes need a break from TD11. ;) I find myself wondering what atmospheric dynamics have changed in the last few years. Maybe it was just dumb luck; but it sure seemed that the forecasts from about five up to about two years ago were verifying pretty well. It seems that in the last two years, we have had some pretty odd and hard to forecast systems. Irene and Debby come to mind. Granted everything to do with forecasting requires as much data as possible to make the most informed decision. Is it that the storms are just not in spots where the data is as reliable? Is there actually less data available due to budget cutbacks? Is there some other influence on the atmosphere right now that is not readily apparent or undiscovered?

It seems that tropical model development has slowed as of late. I know that FSU has there "Superesemble." As a Florida resident and a former FSU student, I am a little ticked that they are holding it 'for-profit.' Granted, they are sharing the info with NHC. It just makes me wonder. If there is no way for a univeristy or group to "profit" from what they are doing now, will it start to go by the wayside? There really isn't a lot of profit in weather.

I guess I'm rambling a bit. Just a little concerned in the apparent drop in the quality of forecasts. Not wanting to start a flame war or point fingers. Kind of just wondering.

As far as TD 11 goes, my thinking is llcc dissapates ala Debby or reformation occurs under the mid-level circulation. I can't see it surviving on its own across the Yucatan.

TD11 addendum (#3)
Posted by:
Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 06:08PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


It might just be the sun going down; but I am losing being able to see the llcc in the visible pics. Is anyone else seeing that?

TD 11 Forms Over Land??????? (#4)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 06:15PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUQ*)


When is the last time a system formed over land? That is what happened today. The first NHC coordinates were over land not water. Why would anyone think this storm will die out when it formed over land to start with. It must be that Mexican drinking water that helped formation.

LLCC (#5)
Posted by:
John Cornelius [CFHC} (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 06:18PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)


Looks like the LLCC is getting pulled back into the MLCC. Looking at the latest Sat Vis loop.

Brief Comment / Speculation (#6)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 06:34PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNXV*)


First, I'd like to thank Scott, et al for your compliments.

I'll try to keep this as tentative as possible, since the LLCC is apparently inland. Consequently, there isn't much analysis, and *I'm not making any predictions / forecasts at this point*. This is merely some food for thought.
Possible scenarios:

1.) TD 11 makes it into the Gulf.

If this happens, will intensification be rapid? Perhaps. It's impossible to say with certainty; intensity forecasting is a problem that tropical meteorology fans and experts alike can't even hope to have a good handle on right now. From a cursory overview of 11, I doesn't *look* like much is in place for rapid intensification. The mid and low-level centers are not aligned; until 11 solves this problem, intensification will be hindered.

However, I see one *possibility* for 11. There are strong westerlies to the north, and according to the NHC, they will be approaching soon. Contrary to what many might think, some strong westerlies nearby can be a great boon for a storm. If the westerlies "hook-up" with the storm's outflow, the mass removal could be greatly enhanced, allowing for a rapid pressure fall. Combined with warm SSTs--11 may pass over the Loop Current if it stays north of the NHC track-- and a slow rate of movement, quick strengthening is a *remote* possibility.

There's a caveat here, though, too. Storms that rapidly intensify, tend to do so when they're already hurricanes, or at least strong TSs. This TC is neither, and a rapid spin-up from depression to strong hurricane seems unlikely.

2. The LLCC dissipates over land.
This is also a possibility. However, I concur with others that the mid-level circulation is much more impressive, and *if* a LLCC forms beneath it, things could get interesting. Then again, it took this TC a long time to develop a surface circulation--what makes us think it should suddenly spawn one again after entering the Gulf?

As for the possible track, I'll leave that to people more qualified than myself.

Above all, I recommend that we take this one day at a time, as usual. I'll have more comments when and if this thing makes it over water.

LLCC VS. MLCC (#7)
Posted by: Rudy Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 06:50PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQPQ*)


In the sat views, I have not been able to
see the LLCC, I am just using the NHC data for
the postition. I don't see how the LLCC can
make it across land without good convection unless the MLCC follows it, and it looks like the MLCC has it's own ideas and is not following the LLCC over land. If I had to pick the one with the best chance of making it to the next level,
my vote is for the MLCC. It has the convection and the water.

Just my amiture guess

Rudy

Good Guess (#8)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 07:36PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVW*)


Actually, look at Flo...no one thought she would form and/or keep her intensity. I think (and the local weather people here in Tampa) that the mid level circulation is the one to look at right now. As far as I am concerned, I am throwing all models tonight out the window. There are three areas to look at, the least one to worry about is the LLCC inland. Look east. Then look NE..then look at the cold front that is suppossed to come down giving Texas frost. It's late, it's been an impossible day for forecasting; however, DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN IF YOU LIVE IN ANY AREA EAST OF LA ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE KEYS. This is far from over, IMO. We have gotten used to the ritual of storms getting us all revved up and then a huge let down (and I do not mean that in terms of landfall, so don't even think about saying anything about that) that when an actual storm *potentially* threatens us, we revert to the previous patterns. Don't. JJ, excellent analysis of the situation. Scott, et all, we all work hard at what we do, and all input is important. Sorry for the preaching (didn't mean to start off that way!) just typing out things in my head....

outflow (#9)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†€@h˜) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:44PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


I was just sitting on my front porch looking over looking the gulf and I can see the outflow from TD11 and the sunset...watch out Florida. Thats what the TWC just implicated

I AGREE DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN (#10)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 07:59PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRWNS*)


I agree with Gary, and while I am inland a ways from where you are, the sky is absolutely beautiful tonight..

I would like to also mention that NHC and the models are lousy (and no disrespect to the NHC)when it comes to forecasting path or intensity in the gulf.. Never mind the fairly complex system and environment that is currently taking shape out there. Lets keep our eyes open...



Cold Front (#11)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:02PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNRQUNRUUNQSQ*)


TWC keeps saying,they favor the East gulf coast more & more!! There saying that the 1st cold front wont have a lot of pull on TD #11,but the second should pull it more to the east-& n.e.
Any one else have any input on this?--William

What does this remind you of? (#12)
Posted by: LNoel
Posted On 08:02PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQR*)


Reminds me EXACTLY how Hurricane OPAL started out! Over the Yucatan.

Our storm is holding (#13)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:35PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Current T# still holding

631

TPNT KGWC 142342

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 14/2315Z (111)

C. 21.3S/6

D. 86.9W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 24HRS -14/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED

ON DT; PT AND MET AGREE.





Our storm is holding (#14)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:50PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Current T# still holding

631

TPNT KGWC 142342

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 14/2315Z (111)

C. 21.3S/6

D. 86.9W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 24HRS -14/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED

ON DT; PT AND MET AGREE.





comments? (#15)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:01PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


I could be totaly wrong but the latest IR loop looks like 11 is about to enter the gulf


eom (#16)
Posted by: check
Posted On 10:24PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNRRX*)


eom

Wow! (#17)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 10:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUNTRNVV*)


Looking at the 11pm discussion, I only have two words. Cop out! Not even adjusting it to the right when they are already a good bit off. Looks like the same stuborness to update that they had with Irene last year. Oh well. I guess we will just have to wait until morning to see if someone will take a chance and update the forecast.

eleven fits the mold (#18)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:08AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


sloppy depression we're dealing with so far. maybe tomorrow it will start developing an impressive structure, if it can stay in a favorable environment. after the last two years i expect anything that looks like td11 has to develop with vigor, but this year the basin just isnt supporting the kind of hurricane activity in years psst. the surface winds are still ese at cozumel (or cancun?) so the sfc center is still over the yucatan.. guess its keeping us in suspense for now, but id hold my breath on this one. it has a great deal of potential if it can get its act together.
have a good one, cfhc forum voices.

Morning all. (#19)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 07:42AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)


Not a healthy system at all this morning. I may be getting fooled, but it looks like the llcc is moving off the nothern tip of the Yucatan right about now. That could be the mid-level circulation though. Can't see much else in the IR right now. It will be interesting to see what the visual and recon brings today. It seems to be trying to survive. Maybe, if it gets to the Gulf, a bit of continuity in the models can begin to happen.

GFDL (#20)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQTP*)



WHXX04 KWBC 151109

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN 11L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 15



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.2 87.6

6 21.7 88.5 300./ 9.4

12 21.9 88.6 321./ 2.6

18 22.0 88.4 69./ 1.8

24 22.2 88.0 60./ 4.6

30 23.0 87.4 38./10.1

36 24.5 87.0 14./15.2

42 25.9 86.3 30./14.9

48 27.2 85.6 28./14.6

54 28.8 84.8 26./17.8

60 30.4 83.9 30./17.8

66 31.8 82.8 38./16.3

72 33.1 81.8 38./16.0

78 34.4 80.4 46./17.0








Over Water (#21)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:28AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQTP*)



TPNT KGWC 151155

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 15/1115Z (111)

C. 21.7S/0

D. 87.0W/5

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5 24HRS -15/1115Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. LLCC

HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE WARM GULFWATERS AND THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN

TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FINAL T BASED ON DT.







Don't Understand The Forecast (#22)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 08:35AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)


The 5:00 a.m. forecast from NHC still calls for TD #11 to move generally WNW, even though the center has apparently moved (reformed?) well to the NE. Why the reluctance to update the forecast accordingly? What are the possibilities for a forecast change based on the newest information? Any help would be great, I'm a bit confused this a.m. :)

I think the old model.... (#23)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 08:40AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)


runs are pretty useless based on the init values. Maybe the 12Z runs will offer up some better results. Might have to wait until this evening after NHC gets a better handle on TD 11's position and strength before we get some model convergence, however.

BIG CHANGE (#24)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 08:53AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQTQ*)


IF IT IS WHERE THEY THINK IT IS, THEN THAT IS A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE RIGHT. MID LEVEL MAY HAVE BROUGHT THE LLCC TO THE RIGHT.

Now, I am Convinced Forecasters Are Clueless (#25)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:03AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)


Ok, folks, I just watched the Tropical Update with Marshall Seese. According to him, the center is STILL over land (someone forgot to give him the updated T#'s, apparantly)...even a novice looking at the IR picture they were showing shows where the Low is...over water!! Then he went ON to state that it is forecasted to be in Central Gulf in 3 days...HOWEVER, at the end of his segment, he stated the following: IF YOU LIVE IN THE TAMPA AREA, KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

Ok, so maybe he is skeptical of NHC's forecast. You tell me.

Interesting. (#26)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 09:10AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


I don't know how much leeway the OCM's have to comment on their own. It seems that Dr John Hope is the only one allowed leeway to comment away from NHC forecasts. That actually makes some sense. You wouldn't want a lot of conflicting info out there. However, I have found it interesting that the have maintained saying that the west coast of Florida needs to keep an close eye on it the entire time.

Clueless (#27)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:14AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


I will let the following speak for itself:

1. The system has looked sheared from the gitgo, why do you think that the midlevel and LLCC couldn't get together?!

2. Anyone could see the upper trough over the BOC for the last two days, but NHC only acknowledged it last night by saying it may favorably interact with the td; then this morning (less than 212 hour later), they say it may shear the supposedly great outflow.

3. Now that the td is moving N or NNE, the shear wil lessen and may even help improve the sytem, NHC still 'offcially' has the system moving wnw, altho it obviously is not.

4. Looks like the system is picking up..a recon from just before 8 this morning reported 1005 mb some distance from the center, so pressures are dropping .

One of my favorite sayings about the NWS and models is "the weatherman should look out the window" (figuratively speaking).

Nuff said! Looks like it is developing, will be interesting to see what 11 am brings!

You are all doing great work! I learn more hear than anywhere else it seems! The C bros are doing yeomans service here!

IHS,

Bill


agree with comment posted by Gary I think..or Frank, last night, about degrading of the forcast and observation functions the last couple of yrs. I am very pro NWS and TPC/NHC, so this is disappointing and puzzling,,,and don't agree with how it gets candy coated.

QUESTION??? (#28)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 09:18AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQTQ*)


REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS BEING SAID, THE SAT PICTURES ARE CLEARLY INDICATING A CENTER WHETHER IT IS MID OR LL AT APPROX. 87W 22N. IT DID NOT MOVE NW AS ANTICIPATED IT MOVED NNE. ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE ALLEDGED CENTER AND MOVING GENERALLY NNE. AM I WRONG

Bill, Gerry (#29)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:28AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)


1st to Bill: you said that recon found a 1005mb low some distance from the center...which way? WNW or NNE? or somewhere in between?

2nd to Gerry: No, you are not wrong.

Another interesting point: on the extended outlook, the OCM said that the models have TD#11 heading East...they must have new runs. They also show WATCHING THE TROPICS with Tampa area having the most rain. Then she said it would be moving into the Gulf Waters (ahem, sweetheart, it's already there, look it up on the T#'s..if you need help, please see us)...I think that John Hope and Steve Lyons are working their butts off to get a grip on this system and that is why we are hearing some of these divergent comments from the OCM's.


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