CFHC Talkback For News Story #94:
Newest Talkback: 09:28 AM 09-15 EDT

TD#11 Over Land or Not?
05:23 PM EDT - 14 September 2000

An interesting occurance is happening with Tropical Depression Eleven. Mainly the fact that its Low Level Circulation Center (LLCC) is over land, but the mid level circulation is over water. Since its a relatively weak depression, this brings out some interesting possibilities. Officially the low level center is over land, and surface observations verify this.
1. It could die out over night over land. This is possible, and from Debby earlier in the year it can be shown to happen. Not a likely solution, but possible none-the-less.
2. It could keep its circulation center and move back over land and eventually form into a tropical storm. (Slightly more likely).
3. Most interesting of all, it could reform its center under the much better defined mid-level circulation out over the water now and slowly work its way into the central Gulf. This possibility allows it to become a hurricane. And the official statement from the NHC has it somewhere between 2 and 3, and calls for a hurricane to form later on.

Therefore, tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch this system. Folks along the Gulf could see anything from a damp rainstorm, to hurricane force winds sometime next week. I'm tending to think this will be a slow mover, and taunt us for a while. Expect the unexpected with this system. Models are virtually no help at the moment because the center is questionable. The entire Gulf needs to watch it.

TD#11

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #9 - #29 (of 29 total)

outflow (#9)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†€@h˜) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:44PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


I was just sitting on my front porch looking over looking the gulf and I can see the outflow from TD11 and the sunset...watch out Florida. Thats what the TWC just implicated

I AGREE DONT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN (#10)
Posted by: ORLANDODUDE Location: O-TOWN, FLORIDA
Posted On 07:59PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRWNS*)


I agree with Gary, and while I am inland a ways from where you are, the sky is absolutely beautiful tonight..

I would like to also mention that NHC and the models are lousy (and no disrespect to the NHC)when it comes to forecasting path or intensity in the gulf.. Never mind the fairly complex system and environment that is currently taking shape out there. Lets keep our eyes open...



Cold Front (#11)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:02PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNRQUNRUUNQSQ*)


TWC keeps saying,they favor the East gulf coast more & more!! There saying that the 1st cold front wont have a lot of pull on TD #11,but the second should pull it more to the east-& n.e.
Any one else have any input on this?--William

What does this remind you of? (#12)
Posted by: LNoel
Posted On 08:02PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNQR*)


Reminds me EXACTLY how Hurricane OPAL started out! Over the Yucatan.

Our storm is holding (#13)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:35PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Current T# still holding

631

TPNT KGWC 142342

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 14/2315Z (111)

C. 21.3S/6

D. 86.9W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 24HRS -14/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED

ON DT; PT AND MET AGREE.





Our storm is holding (#14)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:50PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Current T# still holding

631

TPNT KGWC 142342

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 14/2315Z (111)

C. 21.3S/6

D. 86.9W/3

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5 24HRS -14/2315Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED

ON DT; PT AND MET AGREE.





comments? (#15)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 09:01PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


I could be totaly wrong but the latest IR loop looks like 11 is about to enter the gulf


eom (#16)
Posted by: check
Posted On 10:24PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNQYQNQSNRRX*)


eom

Wow! (#17)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 10:54PM 14-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUNTRNVV*)


Looking at the 11pm discussion, I only have two words. Cop out! Not even adjusting it to the right when they are already a good bit off. Looks like the same stuborness to update that they had with Irene last year. Oh well. I guess we will just have to wait until morning to see if someone will take a chance and update the forecast.

eleven fits the mold (#18)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 02:08AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)


sloppy depression we're dealing with so far. maybe tomorrow it will start developing an impressive structure, if it can stay in a favorable environment. after the last two years i expect anything that looks like td11 has to develop with vigor, but this year the basin just isnt supporting the kind of hurricane activity in years psst. the surface winds are still ese at cozumel (or cancun?) so the sfc center is still over the yucatan.. guess its keeping us in suspense for now, but id hold my breath on this one. it has a great deal of potential if it can get its act together.
have a good one, cfhc forum voices.

Morning all. (#19)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 07:42AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)


Not a healthy system at all this morning. I may be getting fooled, but it looks like the llcc is moving off the nothern tip of the Yucatan right about now. That could be the mid-level circulation though. Can't see much else in the IR right now. It will be interesting to see what the visual and recon brings today. It seems to be trying to survive. Maybe, if it gets to the Gulf, a bit of continuity in the models can begin to happen.

GFDL (#20)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQTP*)



WHXX04 KWBC 151109

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN 11L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 15



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.2 87.6

6 21.7 88.5 300./ 9.4

12 21.9 88.6 321./ 2.6

18 22.0 88.4 69./ 1.8

24 22.2 88.0 60./ 4.6

30 23.0 87.4 38./10.1

36 24.5 87.0 14./15.2

42 25.9 86.3 30./14.9

48 27.2 85.6 28./14.6

54 28.8 84.8 26./17.8

60 30.4 83.9 30./17.8

66 31.8 82.8 38./16.3

72 33.1 81.8 38./16.0

78 34.4 80.4 46./17.0








Over Water (#21)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 08:28AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNTNTSNQTP*)



TPNT KGWC 151155

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

B. 15/1115Z (111)

C. 21.7S/0

D. 87.0W/5

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5 24HRS -15/1115Z-

G. IR/EIR



38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. LLCC

HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE WARM GULFWATERS AND THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN

TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FINAL T BASED ON DT.







Don't Understand The Forecast (#22)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 08:35AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)


The 5:00 a.m. forecast from NHC still calls for TD #11 to move generally WNW, even though the center has apparently moved (reformed?) well to the NE. Why the reluctance to update the forecast accordingly? What are the possibilities for a forecast change based on the newest information? Any help would be great, I'm a bit confused this a.m. :)

I think the old model.... (#23)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 08:40AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNWU*)


runs are pretty useless based on the init values. Maybe the 12Z runs will offer up some better results. Might have to wait until this evening after NHC gets a better handle on TD 11's position and strength before we get some model convergence, however.

BIG CHANGE (#24)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 08:53AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQTQ*)


IF IT IS WHERE THEY THINK IT IS, THEN THAT IS A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE RIGHT. MID LEVEL MAY HAVE BROUGHT THE LLCC TO THE RIGHT.

Now, I am Convinced Forecasters Are Clueless (#25)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:03AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)


Ok, folks, I just watched the Tropical Update with Marshall Seese. According to him, the center is STILL over land (someone forgot to give him the updated T#'s, apparantly)...even a novice looking at the IR picture they were showing shows where the Low is...over water!! Then he went ON to state that it is forecasted to be in Central Gulf in 3 days...HOWEVER, at the end of his segment, he stated the following: IF YOU LIVE IN THE TAMPA AREA, KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM.

Ok, so maybe he is skeptical of NHC's forecast. You tell me.

Interesting. (#26)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 09:10AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSY*)


I don't know how much leeway the OCM's have to comment on their own. It seems that Dr John Hope is the only one allowed leeway to comment away from NHC forecasts. That actually makes some sense. You wouldn't want a lot of conflicting info out there. However, I have found it interesting that the have maintained saying that the west coast of Florida needs to keep an close eye on it the entire time.

Clueless (#27)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 09:14AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)


I will let the following speak for itself:

1. The system has looked sheared from the gitgo, why do you think that the midlevel and LLCC couldn't get together?!

2. Anyone could see the upper trough over the BOC for the last two days, but NHC only acknowledged it last night by saying it may favorably interact with the td; then this morning (less than 212 hour later), they say it may shear the supposedly great outflow.

3. Now that the td is moving N or NNE, the shear wil lessen and may even help improve the sytem, NHC still 'offcially' has the system moving wnw, altho it obviously is not.

4. Looks like the system is picking up..a recon from just before 8 this morning reported 1005 mb some distance from the center, so pressures are dropping .

One of my favorite sayings about the NWS and models is "the weatherman should look out the window" (figuratively speaking).

Nuff said! Looks like it is developing, will be interesting to see what 11 am brings!

You are all doing great work! I learn more hear than anywhere else it seems! The C bros are doing yeomans service here!

IHS,

Bill


agree with comment posted by Gary I think..or Frank, last night, about degrading of the forcast and observation functions the last couple of yrs. I am very pro NWS and TPC/NHC, so this is disappointing and puzzling,,,and don't agree with how it gets candy coated.

QUESTION??? (#28)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 09:18AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRXNQWXNQTQ*)


REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS BEING SAID, THE SAT PICTURES ARE CLEARLY INDICATING A CENTER WHETHER IT IS MID OR LL AT APPROX. 87W 22N. IT DID NOT MOVE NW AS ANTICIPATED IT MOVED NNE. ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE ALLEDGED CENTER AND MOVING GENERALLY NNE. AM I WRONG

Bill, Gerry (#29)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:28AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)


1st to Bill: you said that recon found a 1005mb low some distance from the center...which way? WNW or NNE? or somewhere in between?

2nd to Gerry: No, you are not wrong.

Another interesting point: on the extended outlook, the OCM said that the models have TD#11 heading East...they must have new runs. They also show WATCHING THE TROPICS with Tampa area having the most rain. Then she said it would be moving into the Gulf Waters (ahem, sweetheart, it's already there, look it up on the T#'s..if you need help, please see us)...I think that John Hope and Steve Lyons are working their butts off to get a grip on this system and that is why we are hearing some of these divergent comments from the OCM's.


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