Throw a Dart...
09:16 AM EDT - 15 September 2000
2PM Mini Update:
The center of TD#11 appears to be reforming a little to the north and east of the current official position. Also... The wave East of the Caribbean islands is looking very good this afternoon. We may have three tropical systems to track at once very soon. -- The quick pop ups should return later in the day. (See Eric Blake's Atlantic Tropical Weather Center for alternate advisory sources, or many other links that we have.)
The models are less useful than that this morning with TD#11. It really is wide open for speculation right now. We won't know much until tonight probably.
The center is still questionable, and the shearing going on as well as the general pattern around it make for any predictions to be pretty much a guessing game. To reiterate, the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this system. (I'm personally leaning toward the Eastern Gulf including the West coast of Florida, but that is just a dart throw itself.)
The folks in Tampa agree:
THIS WILL BE A VERY TOUGH MARINE FORECAST. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF TD 11. IF THE AVN IS RIGHT WE COULD GET SOME 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS BY LATE SUNDAY. IF THE CANADIAN MODEL IS RIGHT SEAS COULD GET EVEN LARGER THAN THAT. OF COURSE YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW A DART AT A MAP AND GET ABOUT AS GOOD OF OUTPUT AS THE MODELS THIS MORNING. I WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH PRETTY MUCH AGREES WITH THE ETA...EXCEPT FOR TAKING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BUT I WILL LEAVE THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT IN THE FORECAST...BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE LOCAL CRS READS AND IN THE SYNOPSIS.
Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.A nice animated Water Vapor Image