CFHC Talkback For News Story #95:
Newest Talkback: 04:45 PM 09-15 EDT

Throw a Dart...
09:16 AM EDT - 15 September 2000

2PM Mini Update:
The center of TD#11 appears to be reforming a little to the north and east of the current official position. Also... The wave East of the Caribbean islands is looking very good this afternoon. We may have three tropical systems to track at once very soon. -- The quick pop ups should return later in the day. (See Eric Blake's Atlantic Tropical Weather Center for alternate advisory sources, or many other links that we have.)

Original Update:
The models are less useful than that this morning with TD#11. It really is wide open for speculation right now. We won't know much until tonight probably.

The center is still questionable, and the shearing going on as well as the general pattern around it make for any predictions to be pretty much a guessing game. To reiterate, the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this system. (I'm personally leaning toward the Eastern Gulf including the West coast of Florida, but that is just a dart throw itself.)

The folks in Tampa agree:

THIS WILL BE A VERY TOUGH MARINE FORECAST. EVERYTHING DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF TD 11. IF THE AVN IS RIGHT WE COULD GET SOME 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS BY LATE SUNDAY. IF THE CANADIAN MODEL IS RIGHT SEAS COULD GET EVEN LARGER THAN THAT. OF COURSE YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH THROW A DART AT A MAP AND GET ABOUT AS GOOD OF OUTPUT AS THE MODELS THIS MORNING. I WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WHICH PRETTY MUCH AGREES WITH THE ETA...EXCEPT FOR TAKING THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. BUT I WILL LEAVE THE DISCLAIMER STATEMENT IN THE FORECAST...BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE LOCAL CRS READS AND IN THE SYNOPSIS.

More to come later...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #5 - #25 (of 46 total)
Low Level Center (#5)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 09:48AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYX*)

I have been plotting the reports from the recon aircraft as they patrol the north coast of the Yucatan. The reports do indicate that the LLCC is on the coast of the Yucatan in the vicinity of 21.5/88.7 lowest pressure so far has been 1006mb. No west winds from the recon only northwest, however Merida has west winds over land.
LLCC (#6)
Posted by: Tinpusher
Posted On 10:02AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPQNQYX*)

I stated above that the lowest pressure found was 1006. This was not correct, the lowest was 1005 at 21.5/88.9 with a northeast wind (040) at 14 kts.
WOW (#7)
Posted by: David Location: Brevard/PSJ
Posted On 10:05AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Things really look like they are flaring up.


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/gmex-ir4-loop.html


I am not to sure were the circulation is, but it looks like we could get some much needed rain.


Here is a good link to watch the radar approach of this disturbance.


http://www.intellicast.com/LocalWeather/World/UnitedStates/Southeast/Florida/KeyWest/1kmStormWatchLoop/
Can someone tell me? (#8)
Posted by: David
Posted On 10:43AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

Can some one tell me what does the dark grey mean inside of the red on this loop?
http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-ir4-loop.html

Sorry if it is a foolish question.
td 11 (#9)
Posted by: Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 11:04AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTQ*)

this is a very confusing system...llcc onvisual rt. along no.coast, but all moisture is flowing away to nne....that is usually, but not always a good indicator of where the center will go, but not this time? why?
td #11 (#10)
Posted by: Gary Location: Jacksonville
Posted On 11:17AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

the weather channel seems to be contradicting what all of the models are saying, because they were saying that the system would most likely move ne and the models are now saying either central gulf or western gulf. Doesn't that seem odd? But that was at the 8:00 update so I haven't seen the newest one.
Gary (#11)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com) Location: O-Town
Posted On 11:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

I would agree with the NE path. The models are a whole lot of use right now. The big problem is defining where the center is/will be. I'm still favoring a center which is more NE of where the NHC has it officially. That really would change all of the model paths to the NE. Of course, as Mike said, it is pretty much a dart throw. This system will be hard to predict until we have a definite LLCC.
11am forecast positions from NHC..... (#12)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 11:26AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTT*)

seem reasonable with the recon data. My gut tells me that it may be left of the actual track that TD 11 will take. I'm not sure it is off that much, though. Probably within the average forecast error. TD 11 has a lot of maturing to do now that it is getting free of the Yucatan. Still would not discout the Tampa area in the long term. These sheared systems that we have had this year are real buggers. I can't see the llcc where recon says it is. It is very diffuse. And, of course, reformation under the mid-level is still possible, even according to NHC. Should be an interesting six hours until the next update. I retract my earlier comment about the lat/lon being off for the models. Still suspect on the initial motion. But that also explains my feeling of the track being to the right of the forecasted track.
Tech Note (#13)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Newport News, VA (Currently)
Posted On 11:39AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNRUP*)

The pop up adviories use the same system that noaa's IWIN does, which are having problems. So they may be disabled for a bit. It should show up again in not too long a time. Storm Spotlight uses an alternate method, and provides alternate sites, as well as the links page (ATWC is really good for this, BTW)

11AM is an interesting update. I think the LLCC is off the coast right now (just off it), and the next 6 hours will indeed be interesting. Unfortunately I'll be out of town until Late Sunday night after 4PM or so. (Between the boonies and the middle of nowhere in the Tennessee mountains) So, John will take over the entire site until Sunday morning, when he himself will be going to San Antonio. I'll try to get quick access to the page while I'm gone, but not guarantees. The automated stuff should continue to work without my input, though.

This System... (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:51AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)

is killing me. IF it goes to the WNW like they are saying, how could it possibly survive the shear they are talking about? No way. I think (it's hard to tell at the moment) that it is trying to reform to the east, under the midlevel circulation. And, NHC is now saying the same thing basically...they don't know anymore than we do. I have noticed, however, that the local forecasters are not so quick now to say it is no threat whatsoever to florida. As a matter of fact, the 11:00 news wxman said we need to keep a close eye on this system, as it could redevelop east of where they say it is...very complicated forecast, indeed.
To Jim Mogle (#15)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:55AM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNQYS*)

Jim, in your earlier post you said it would be to left of the projected path, but at the end you said to the right...did you mean right when you said left? LOL!!! Did I confuse you or am I confused? Colleen
That was confusing. (#16)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:33PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)

I kind of transposed the way I was looking at it. I was saying, in a bad way, that the forecast track was to the left of what I thought the actual track was going to be. IE, I think it will be to the right of the forecast path. I really could have written that better. I guess I was just thinking about lunch. :)
Interaction between llcc and mid-level? (#17)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:50PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNTT*)

I've been looking at the vis sat loop. Almost looks like there is a dance going on with the llcc and the mid-level circulation. Llcc looks like it is not moving much or moving back towards the mid-level flow slightly. Whereas, the mid-level flow looks like it is moving to meet up with the llcc. Probably just seeing things, though.
Gotcha, Jim! (#18)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 12:51PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

That's what I thought you were saying...lunch is very important (especially to the models, which seem to always be out to lunch!!!)....NOW all the forecasters in Tampa are telling us things could change over the weekend, with Channel 10 being the most concerned, and that we need to keep a close eye on this "thing"...Colleen
EXPLOSION IN YUCATAN CHANNEL??? (#19)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 12:58PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQS*)

What is going on here in the Yucatan Channel
OTHER WAVE (#20)
Posted by: GREG
Posted On 01:11PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNRRWNSP*)

ANY THOUGHTS ON THE WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN PRETTY RESILIENT. IF IT STAYS UNDER 20N WINDS TO EAST OF THE ISLANDS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT BAD AT THE MOMENT. PUERTO RICO - WEST I'M NOT SO SURE BUT THAT'S DAYS AWAY.
TWC??? (#21)
Posted by: Gerry Location: Venice Fl
Posted On 01:12PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQTNQUNQSX*)

HAS ANYONE HEARD WHAT TWC SAID IN THE LAST TROP UPDATE??
Gerry (#22)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:17PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

No, have you? If you have, share it with us....please....Colleen
East of the Islands (#23)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:19PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

NHC says a tropical depression may be developing east of the Lesser Antilles.
Explosion! (#24)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 01:20PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNUQ*)

Wow...-100 degrees Celcius cloud tops!!!! Anyone have an opinion on whether this thing could form into a llcc? also, on vis sat imagery, it looks like the two centers are trying to come together..anyone else notice that? Colleen
Couple of Thoughts (#25)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 01:35PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

The cloud tops to the east of the Yucatan almost look as if they are on a trough axis of some kind--note the elongated look in the satellite photos. I'm not sure what exactly may be responsible, but I don't think that at this time it is a reflection of a strengthening system. I am having a hard time picking out the original LLCC and wonder if it could be reforming under the MLCC, but at any rate, any intesification with this system looks to be slow IMHO.
New Llcc? (#26)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 01:43PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQYS*)

TWC --Rich johnson just said the Llcc isnt moving much at all,if any. He talked more about a new Llcc trying to form under mid level cir.& on the satellite view it sure looks like it to me!!!
Boy if thats true--look out eastern part of the Gulf especially Florida!!!
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