CFHC Talkback For News Story #96:
Newest Talkback: 11:05 PM 09-15 EDT

TD#11, Florence, and More
03:49 PM EDT - 15 September 2000

Tropical Storm Florence is moving slowly toward Bermuda. Tropical Storm warnings are up for it.

TD#11 (Possibly Gordon later tonight or tomorrow) has reformed its center, from all indications I can see. A little to the North and East of the 11AM position. This makes things interesting for the Eastern Gulf Coast. Folks along there will want to watch this, along with everyone else in the Gulf coast.

East of the Caribbean islands, a new wave is looking good to form into TD#12 fairly soon (tomorrow perhaps).

Lot's going on, and tons of speculation with TD#11 abounds. Because of some shear, Florida is getting some offshoot rain from TD#11 already. But the core will not get close until Monday or Tuesday, I believe. All the Gulf must continue to watch this system. A complex situation is arising, so be ready to expect the unexpected.

I personally will be out of town until very late Sunday night, so the page is turned over completely to John until then. (I may get on once or twice over the weekend, but I wouldn't count on it.) On Sunday afternoon, John is heading to Texas, so there will be some time where we will not be able to make updates. (Until late Sunday night). The site will still run with all the automated code, and the comment areas will as well.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #3 - #23 (of 44 total)

TD#11 almost Gorden (#3)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:31PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQRV*)


Hello All,
Well the 5pm advisory is out and the center has been repositioned to 21.7n..88.0 west and now is expected to take a more n-nw drift overnight instead of a nw. Florida watch out!!

Weather Report (#4)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 04:34PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSTNQRV*)


Hello All,
Conditions righht now have winds s-sw at 15mph abd increasing due to a precip band to our south moving up from TD#11.

Weather Report (#5)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 04:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRQSNWV*)


Just had a little squall over here on the southeast coast of Florida. Wind gust to 28 mph and .25" of rain in a few minutes from some of the outflow of TD11.

Is it just me or ........... (#6)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 05:08PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


is TWC still saying the LLCC is just off shore of the NW Yucantan? I thought they recognized it as reforming alittle further east earlier.

TD #12 (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 05:14PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)


Just announced east of the Lesser Antilles. Forecast to be south of the Dominican Republic in 72 hours.

This Is What We All Have Been Waiting For!!!!!!!! (#8)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 05:38PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQXW*)


Florence almost a hurricane again, TD 11 almost a tropical storm and TD 12 now forms!!!!! Who said the season was over

Order of Names? (#9)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:46PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


I have a simple question to anyone. If TD#12 becomes a T.S. before TD#11, will its name be Gordon? (I've noticed the local news has quit referring to TD#11 as "future Gordon"). I'm just curious. Great knowledge and discussions presented on this website by all commentators!!!

Debbie (#10)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:51PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNRPY*)


Yes, TD12 would be Gordon, and TD11 would be Helena...but I still think that TD11 will be Gordon by 11pm...or sooner...

Thanks, Colleen! (#11)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 05:57PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)


I appreciate your answer. I agree with you on TD#11 becoming a T.S. first, but I was just curious about how it was done. Thank you, again for responding. Debbie

Brand New statement (#12)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:24PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Brand New statement (#13)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Brand New statement (#14)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000

...CORRECTED STORM TITLE/NAME TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
IN HEADER ONLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS EMERGED
OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION ALSO
APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED FURTHER EAST...NEAR 22.0N 87.5W...CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAY NOW BE VERTICALLY
STACKED...AND THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM. IF THIS APPARENT TREND
CONTINUES...THEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST...OR TO THE RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED.

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 7 PM CDT...OR 0000Z...AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART




Sorry (#15)
Posted by:
Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 06:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQSNQRQ*)


That triple post was a rookie mistake by a veteran..Sorry!!

Intersting weekend (#16)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:34PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


Looks like it will be a very intersting weekend!!!
All of FLORIDA keep your eyes open for Gordon!!!
Good luck to everyone!!

misspelled (#17)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:37PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


Woops i misspelled interesting---Sorry!!!

GFDL MODEL (#18)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 06:45PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQUX*)


The GFDL model has Td-11(GORDON) coming in right above tampa. looks like around Cedar key.
I know its early & we know how reliable the models are(ha ha).But, paul on channel 13--fox
said it was one the more reliable models. Well see
only time will tell

This Is Significant (#19)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:58PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRQS*)


This is a significant change from the 5pm advisory....guess what? Forecasters changed; Magoo left and Popeye came on board. I believe we will see a special advisory at 8pm declaring this TS Gordon. and maybe some watches posted...

p.s. I also think that NHC stopped by and got the hint of where to look. LOL

Jim Cantore (#20)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 06:59PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYUNRQS*)


Sorry, Jim...you went to wrong location....have a good time in Galveston.

Oh No!! (#21)
Posted by: Teresa Location: Mobile, AL
Posted On 07:30PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNTNRUSNXX*)


Local weather channel shows models of TD #11 moving Northerly. If TD #11 continues on this track, Mobile is surely in the hot seat. Still early and anything can happen.

Impressive (#22)
Posted by: Rudy (
http://†ÿ€©@hèX) Location: Cocoa Beach
Posted On 07:32PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQPQ*)


TD 11 is beginning to look like the most impressive TD I have seen;). Can't see the
llcc, but the main convection seems to be drifting north or just a shade east of north. Not being a weather expert, Why does the NHC keep wanting to push the system to the west? The over all steering does not look westward? Am I being fooled by upper lever sheer?

Rudy

Colleen (#23)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:36PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


Have you seen any new T#s? Looking over the gulf I can see low clouds moving by that remind me of elana 1995. Feels very Tropical right know

GFDL (#24)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 07:42PM 15-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


WHXX04 KWBC 152324

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP HURRICANE MODEL..GFDL MMM...FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM ELEVEN 11L



INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 15



FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.6 87.8

6 21.8 88.0 325./ 2.7

12 22.4 87.9 3./ 5.8

18 23.1 87.6 25./ 7.8

24 23.8 87.2 29./ 7.5

30 24.4 86.5 48./ 8.8

36 25.2 85.8 42./10.2

42 26.2 84.8 48./13.5

48 27.6 83.5 40./18.6

54 29.2 82.5 31./18.0

60 30.6 81.6 34./16.0

66 32.0 80.6 36./16.3

72 33.4 79.5 38./16.8

78 34.7 78.3 42./16.0




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