berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Okay...we know it's been a bust up to now...TUTT and lows everywhere again this year and like last year more fizzle than bang. Took a look at models and discussions and a cold front...a dry front for we southerners is expected to drop in for the weekend and set up either along the GOM coast or slightly south where both the and have a low expected to develop along the front. Current thinking is the is way overblown and the has a weak low which mets favor. There is considerable dry Saharan air affecting a good chunk of the Atlantic Ocean and a deep upper low over the Central Atlantic with extending trough southwest in a curve all the way back through the Caribbean and stops near Yucatan...Shear analysis - 30 to 40 knot gradient winds from the GOM extending NE along the Atlantic coast; upper ridge over the Eastern US.
Patience..Patience...Patience...
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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lonelymike
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Covington County Alabama
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Dr, Jeff Masters has a good discussion on his blog at the Weather Underground talking about the slow start to the season. Basically said verticak instability is low in the Atlantic Basin. Until the instability increases it will continue to be a slow season.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 155
Loc:
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I think by this coming up Monday (or possibly Sunday?) there will be two areas to watch for development. The first is the possible redevelopment of TD 5 as it re-curves back into the Gulf of Mexico. If it does manage to get back into the gulf as the models show, it appears that it would have a limited/hard time to get going due to the proximity to land. Just as I am typing this, the 12Z shows the remnants flaring up into a very strong tropical storm or hurricane heading into SE Texas by Wednesday morning, so you never know.  The second area that I think will be worth watching is the area in the SW Caribbean. The hints @ development of this area in the next 3 or 4 days along with . This would be another Yucatan-type system if it were to develop. With all this said, I have a feeling that the tropical activity will pick up this next week through the end of August.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 17 2010 - 12Z SAT AUG 21 2010
(excerpt of Discussion~danielw)
WELL EASTWARD A INCREASING FAVORABLE /VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES AND ACTUAL MODEL RUNS OF /CMC/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE VERDE/EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MID TO
LATE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. GOOD ENS AGREEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT ON TIME.
August 14,2010 at 2000Z
Copyright 2010 © EUMETSAT. All rights reserved
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 14 2010 09:12 PM)
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