Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/aug_zzz/aug05.html
Read the abstract of the report.All areas have a superior % of landfalls than average and that is scary.
Part of the abstract at the end speaks volumes:
This is the highest seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity we have ever made.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Incredible.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA
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Mind boggling numbers!
Just a observation from a non pro, non predicting weather watcher: If these numbers are a trend ...for 2006..with these kind of numbers will have to make predictions like the first half of the hurricane season and then make another prediction for second half of the hurricane season and then add up the numbers!
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28.5N 81.2W
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the hurricanes will come. the objective now is to nail the upcoming weather patterns and figure out who gets hit. worst case scenario is that the mean trough position camps in the east-central u.s. like it did last summer. the anomalies aren't clustered in the eastern atlantic like they were in 1995... should bring 'em closer in and not have 'em all recurving between 45-65w. of course in any given season there tends to be a mean trough position and lots of recurvatures will train on that path. best case scenario is that the config that chucked franklin and now harvey out will be recurrent.. but that early pattern that sent and emily on their tracks occuring later in the season with a more poleward ridge axis.. that's bad juju for the east coast. that big cross-basin ridge we had in early/mid july coming back in august or september would be bad indeed...
HF 0535z04august
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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA
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Thanks HankFrank for clearing me head. I do so value yours and the others like yourself opinions in here. I have been lurking around here almost 2 years and are learning. This year will definitely be a learning experience for all I suppose. I sure wish I had some technical knowledge to contribute to these posts.
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