Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TS Bonnie located about 150 miles southeast of Andros Island at 23/04Z moving northwest at 12 knots with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. Center very difficult to locate on IR satellite imagery, however, the exact centerpoint is not really important - just monitor the motion of the convective development until daybreak. Right now its moving off to the northwest and I really don't see much change in that forward direction overnight. This puts the impact area over the southern Florida peninsula rather than through the Florida Straits - probably up around Fort Lauderdale Friday evening. If you can find a center tonight and it seems to be passing along the northeast coast of Andros Island then landfall is going to be on the southern portion of the peninsula. If the center passes along the southwest coast of Andros then landfall will be in the northernmost Keys and the Cape Sable area. Based on current motion trends over the past 6 hours, the first option seems more likely.
Intensity is not as easy. Right now the system appears disorganized and still under shear, but Bonnie is a rather small system. Maximum wind at landfall of about 40 knots would seem realistic - could be a little less or a little more. Compact systems can intensify quickly, but in this case the ULL should hold the intensity in check. Hopefully the system expanse will be large enough to provide most of the peninsula with some much needed rainfall.
Finally, a clarification from the Glossary:
"Fujiwhara Effect:
The tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other." In this case the ULL guides the motion of the tropical cyclone, rather than a Fujiwhara effect.
ED
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Latest HWRF has Bonnie making landfall around Pompano/Boynton Beach area.
00Z HWRF (from site)
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Latest satellite shows a very weak and disorganized tropical cyclone with a partially exposed center located near 25.4N 80W at 23/14Z moving rapidly to the west northwest to northwest. With such a rapid forward speed its questionable as to whether westerly winds still exist on the southern portion of the storm center. Convection confined to an area to the immediate NNW of the center. Heavy rain in the Miami to Homestead area with a wind gust to 36mph at Virginia Key. All south Florida stations reporting wind direction out of the north at 23/14Z. At best, Bonnie is best described as a Tropical Depression.
Added 23/15Z
NHC Advisory states that Fowey Rocks just offshore south Florida report winds of 46mph gusting to 52mph, so TS status is still justified. Bonnie should make landfall in extreme south Florida around Noon EDST.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:05 PM)
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