Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 02/20Z, Invest 99L was located near 26N 40W and was moving to the southwest at 14 knots. The weak low pressure center (1015mb) is well defined in the low levels and appears to be a reflection of what was formerly a small but more robust upper level system. Sporadic weak convection is displaced to the east of the center and north to northwest shear will inhibit development in the near term. SSTs are at 28C.
ED
(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 06 2012 11:42 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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There is a lot of shear directly to its west. Unless it can drop below (South) of that shear while maintaining a low level signature, I don't think it will develop.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It's now TD13, since the shear that was to its west has relaxed allowing some convection to persist near the center. It's a very small system and not in the best of environments, but is predicting that it will become a minimal TS before more shear sets in.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 04 2012 01:53 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Well, Michael is looking rather good this evening. It appears to be getting vertically stacked as the shear in the area continues to relax.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It appears that Michael has a brief window of opportunity to become a minimal hurricane later today or this evening just before more shear begins to affect it as the upper level trough that bypassed Leslie is now approaching Michael.
The 5PM AST discussion indicates that believes that the trough will also bypass Michael with minimal impact on the system which will allow Michael to intensify once the trough axis has passed.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Wed Sep 05 2012 10:15 PM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Well Michael blew up overnight. First Major Hurricane of the season.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Just saw that. Wow! Just getting up and about and going to check all the hurricane resources that I normally peruse. It's those tiny systems that never cease to amaze.
EDIT: None of the 00Z and 06Z model runs have Michael initialized as the strong system that it has become, so will have to wait for the 12Z runs for a better hint at what may become of it. One thing I do notice is that, being such a tight and compact (and strong) storm, Michael's outflow is beginning to impact the trough to his north rather than the trough impacting Michael this morning.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 06 2012 11:41 PM)
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