CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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Isidore is still a Tropical Storm but very close to a Hurricane. Isidore is pushing 70mph winds and moving W-NW at 8mph.
Isidore is knocking on southwest Cuba’s door at this time and the BIG question is; where will she go once in the southeast Gulf? Models are pointing everywhere, so if you live anywhere on the Gulf Coast you need to pay attention. As mentioned in the last headline “Forecasting Nightmare Deluxe” and so far it sure has been. Although once out in the Gulf and models start to agree, we all may have a better clue on the expected direction of track. But we also know Hurricanes sometimes surprise us all.
Josephine become and is out of the picture.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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tom5r
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html
Eye is forming. Looks good
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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With the new info out how long will it be before the models change?
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rick in mobile
Unregistered
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feel it's a hurricane next post...here's what it looks like to me today...
general wnw direction...cat 2 by tonight...hit Cuba as a "forming" bad boy...
cat 3-4 lower gulf of Mexico...
cat 5 central Gulf of Mexico
cat 4-5 hit between NO and Panama City...somewhere. and if it doesn't get real close to ya..no big whoop
hate to post that...used to pretend they would all be bad ones. but i think we all are nervous about this one, aren't we?
remember...all sorts of predictions...but watch the OVERALL movement...it will stay intact until steering currents take over...and if it starts to slow down at all..that is WHEN the course usually changes...
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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By the time izzy gets into the SGOM, it will not need steering currents. It will be huge enough to make its own course.
Southern
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FlaRebel
Unregistered
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I was planning on heading out of town this weekend, but think I need to cancel and start making preparations. They are calling for Izzy to have winds of 110 on Sunday with no landfall in sight. I wonder just how big she will get? Hugo or Andrew size? There are alot of folks here in Tallahassee that are very nervous, including me.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, after finally seeing the discussion, it looks like a lot of similar thinking to here. 5 day forecast scattered from Yucatan to J'ville and subtle changes now could be big later. Hold your hats folks, its going to be a bumpy ride.
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Jim
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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WNW movement continues. Storm was moving closer to due west between 2 and 8 am (if my memory is any good) this morning (1 up, 9 over). However from 8am to 11am, it's gone 2 up and 4 over. Someone said on the last thread that it's moving north. I think what you might be seeing is that some of the banding inside the (the coldest cloud tops in fact) are rotating around the center. Set Goes 8 IR loop for 30, and you can see the gradual nudge WNW-NW. Storm looks almost stationary, so we'll have to wait for the Recon data - which should be fairly soon - for a true position. 12Z models (which won't be posted for another 3-4 hours) are already 3 and 1/2 hours old. Without access to true real time modeling, in essence, we are looking back in time to see the future. I'd like to think that with Super Computers, we could do better. Anyway, possible stall out after crossing Cuba is possible. , in their 11am discussion, discounts the effect of the trof getting established as the thing that takes the storm up and and out. Apparently , and UKMET don't agree, but would you prefer to trust a forecaster (probably doctor or master degree), or a computer?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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If I were in Tallahassee I'd be nervous too. I'm in Central FL and I'm wary, but not nervous. Big Bend to the Panhandle isn't a bad bet, but if Izzy stalls as expected, all bets are off. The models are beginning to agree on the stall just past Cuba. The question is when would he move again. The NE turn almost always happens, which is why FL isn't out of the woods yet.
Anyway, conditions are ripe in the Gulf, but not enough to support Cat5. Cat 5 takes an extremely rare set of conditions, which don't happen often around here. So I don't see Izzy as being more than a strong Cat 3, which is impressive enough.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Here is a current link to the storm:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html I take it the center of the storm is in the dark blue patch.
Here is a link that you-all may want to refer to in 48 hours:
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=dryf1
It is to the Data Bouy at Dry Tortugas, FL
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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it looks to me like you could a eye in the first frame and then it disappeared. anyone else see that.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Thanks to the fabulous furry Cornelius Brothers are always in order for fronting us this cool site and paying all the server bills. You guys rule!
**edit** 108 people on line - 15 registered, 93 anonymouses. No kidding.
Thanks.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
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Couldn't agree more...I became registered today with Florida more looking like the target, but this is still anyone's game.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I don't see cat 5 either...I did say 3 earlier in the last thread, but now I think maybe not. However upper 2 (110mph) is probable...why?
The WV shows a clash in the upper atmosphere setting up at about 90w.. an upper low is evident in the GOM and the push from the west is seen trying to make headway to the east. This seems to be setting up a boundary for the current environment that is sustaining the storm at about 87-90w The UL is not moving over the entire course of the loop...the flow arond the upper low over the Yucatan is clearly South to North..and this will only be a negative on the strengthening of the storm once it gets into the GOM. Of course this could back off, but it does not look like it will. This is why, I think the models slow the storm and most keep it around 85w for a few days.
Eventually all this has to give...and depending on how strong the push from the west is and how quickly it begins to take over, will dictate where IZZY goes, and when...From past experience I think we can agree that IF Izzy does as now predicted, and moves slowly in the SE GOM until the rather strong trough coming down later to provide the imptus for the push east...once that push begins then IZZY move very quickly like 15-20 mph in what ever direction he goes......anybody N or even ENE of the storm when that happens remains vulnerable IMO...
I think it is entirely possible for all this to play itself out by Monday, and would be surprised if it is still around Tuesday or certainly Wednesday.
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doug
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PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
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I wonder how the Cuban Airspace restrictions are effecting things with recon today. This looks like a sure-fire hurricane at either 2 or 5pm.
Just tuned in Jeff Beradelli on Channel 10 here, and they are still playing it to be a toss-up after three days. They already got reporters at the Salvation Army, trying to encourage people to get prepared.
Right now, that's not a bad idea. WAY too early to know for sure.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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All residents from Brownsville to the keys should keep watching the progress of this potentiallly dangerous system that even the folks of the TPC dont know after 3 days where it will go.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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tropical suite models and even ETA model show more W track s of cuba to near Cancun Mexico during next 6 hours which agrees with the AVN. Models are as of the new 12Z runs. scottsvb
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Paulyace, what town are you in?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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vis now shows a jog to the NNW again but generally more NW. This has to come onshore around 82W or so to take out the wsw turn by the avn. new 12Z avn isnt out yet but should soon. scottsvb
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm checking this out from a lobby of a hotel... and now I just can't wait to get back. Apologies all. I should be back around by tomorrow to fix some nagging problems that are coming to light under this heavy load.
Can't do much right now though  .
As the 11AM discussion put it, get out the Chaos Theory books. The forecast past 3 days or so is about as good as it'll get now. Everyone in the Gulf area needs to watch this.
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