MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
8PM Update
Hurricane Winds are up to 150MPH at 8PM, pressure is 926mb. Jamaica is in its sights. Many have not evacuated there (From radio reports) so the chance of loss of life is high. It's getting too late to do so now as winds are starting to pick up there. Good luck Jamaica!
Jamaica News
CocoLaPalm, Negril, Jamaica Webcam
7PM Update
Recond has found a pressure reading of 927 MB, down from the 937 at the 5PM advisory, which indicates is gaining strength.
Original Update
Hurricane remains a category 4 system as it approaches Jamaica, the current forecast keeps it a Category 4 as it nears the coast. The eye of looked ragged earlier today, but now it has shown itself again so it may strengthen again. The wind speed, however, is down slightly to 140MPH. has slowed a little so it may be overnight before Jamaica sees the worst of it. And the forecast track has going in along the western edge of Jamaica, leaving the northeast side (usually the worst side of the storm) to go across most of Jamaica.
To those in Jamaica, again prayers and best of luck go to you. This will be the strongest storm you have dealt with directly in many years.
After Jamaica, Hurricane is still expected to cross into Cuba and near the west coast of Florida. Unfortunately, even at 5PM, the future track beyond 5PM is uncertain. The official track is the same as earlier, and the National Hurricane Center mentions a possibility that they may shift their track west a bit tonight, which would mean more for the panhandle and for the other northern Gulf coast states.
Again this graphic is prone to large error.
More will come later.
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Satellite (With Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
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Current Aircraft Recon Info
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NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
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LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. You must be breaking your back to keep this site up and running. I had one time I got knocked off but that was it.
Pray for Jamaica.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Stupid question, how do you get the discussions, maps, etc... a half hour before its on the website? I see the weatherunderground stuff, but I don't like there maps..
Thanks,
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alley
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
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Try this one. You can enlarge all of the images and it's about as quick with reports as Weather Underground.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Thanks, for the great link. Just curiousl if there was a email service from the or not.
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belleami
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: St George Island/ Apalachicola
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Thank you MikeC and everyone here who makes this site and these discussions possible.
It certainly beats watching the Weather Channel and scrolling snippets of news; it helps take the edge off the uncertainty.
So Thank you again!
And that also applies to all the great meteorologists who graciously donate their time and thoughts to the discussion!
Susie
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hang on!
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Thanks Mike, all the work you do is greatly appreciated!
Looking at this 24 image loop, i'm thinking that is getting it's act together before hitting Jamaica, despite the latests wind decrease.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html
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MO stormspotter
Unregistered
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Can some one tell me why hurricanes do not produce hail?
I know a dumb question but I have always wondered...
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Yes, the does offer to e-mail their advisories. However, my experience has been that they actually get to you much later, usually an hour or two after they are posted.
NHC E-Mails
By the way, here's a picture not many of you have seen that I think is pretty cool.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Ahhh.. is it just me or does the 6.jpg in your post look like a pixelated jumble of pinks and reds and lavender????
Yes, I have alot of trouble telling some colors apart but this doesn't look anything like previous pics..
TY
'shana
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"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "
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G8R
Unregistered
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Is that a due north in the last few frames?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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The storm is a totally warm core system, unlike a cold frontal passage. You don't get the dry air punches, or the lower freezing levels seen in many hail storms.
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G8R
Unregistered
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Quote:
Is that a due north in the last few frames?
err...NNW
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rule
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I'm glad someone else is seeing that, because I thought it was all the Scotch I'm inhaling!
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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The last few frames move it n a bit, but that may be a wobble.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Looking at the WV loops it seems that the ridges have been stationary for the past few hours. As of right now I see tracking over or just to the south of Jamaica. It continues its WNW motion, eventually moving more NW'erly. I see it passing over or just west of the Isla de la Juventud and heading north along about 83.4W. Once it hits about 30N it starts moving more to the NE. Again this is with the current synoptic features in place, obviously things can, and probably will change before early next week. Shawn in reference to reading the WV loops and ridges/movement, etc. One reason it may look a certain way is because the WV loop map isn't a flat picture like a tracking map. It's more a snapshot of the globe, so looking at features on that and trying to relate them to what they would look like on a tracking map gets tricky sometimes. I don't know if that helps or not.
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Check the Surf
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I use the WX-ATLAN mailing list from UIUC...
WX-ATLAN
You can get not only advisories, but recon, offshore forecasts, discos...lots of tropical stuff. Pretty much the fastest e-mail service I have found for tropical advisories...and I've tried them all.
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Jason Kelley
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
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It does look like the last couple of frames have taken a rightward jog, but too early to tell if it is a turn. Overlaying the sat pic with the forecast position, it is ever so slightly NE of forecast position, but very close.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Can some one tell me why hurricanes do not produce hail?
I do believe in some cases hail does come from hurricanes...but hurricanes can spawn tornadoes, which most certainly do produce hail.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I love this loop: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
It's a wobble to the North, for sure. If it holds, it will miss Jamaica to the North!? I've been hoping it would run over that 7500 foot high
mountain... Maybe it will after all.
Notice that is getting it's act back together again. Not much dry air training into the core like eariler. Bummer for Jamaica.
Edited by rule (Fri Sep 10 2004 09:11 PM)
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