HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Two active systems in the basin, one new invest, and an are the features of interest this morning. Jeanne is of course the one of greatest interest, as though there is significant doubt as to it's track, it still poses a looming threat to the east coast. Modeling went out to pasture with Jeanne yesterday, taking it all over the place, looping it around east of the Bahamas. That normally means the storm will move slowly and erratically... which is just what Jeanne needs to reorganize after it's fistfight with Hispaniola. The official forecast is still suggestive of an eventual impact in the United States... later on. Jeanne has shown a history of staying south and west of its forecast track, so if I was in Florida, up to South Carolina.. I'd not write Jeanne off.
Ivan gets next mention, even though the latest HPC advisory has declared it . Formerly formidable is now a ~1000mb elongated low centered around the middle Chesapeake Bay, moving eastward. Away north in Pennsylvania up to southwestern New England it's rainshield is still drenching folks.. but not to the tune of what was seen in the southern Appalachians. There is some indication that enough of 's circulation will pivot offshore and be forced back down the Carolina coast to make a minor recovery.. this is just a scenario given by some of the models. Others shear 's low out and degenerate the system east of Hatteras.
The strongest storm out there today is Karl, well on it's way to being a major hurricane. Karl poses no threat to land, but will provide us with one of those rarities of 2004, a fish spinner folks can ooh and aah over without feeling like they're egging on a killer.
Another invest is active between Karl and the Cape Verdes.. it has some development potential, but will likely never do much due to it's proximity to the deepening hurricane to it's west. Another impressive wave is emerging off the coast this morning.
There is nothing urgent in the tropics this morning, so check back from time to time during the weekend, but do enjoy the beautiful early fall weather behind (if you're not still getting rained on) and of course the college games today.
-HF
i]General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 18 2004 02:32 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Thanks for the New Thread Hank Frank. Anyway, we have many waves in the tropics nothing is of dire need to talk about. Model guidance suggests that Jeanne will do a flip, which is almost impossible to map out in a 5 day forecast map. This has to be by far the most difficult landfalling hurricane's that I've tracked. Karl is going to be a fish spinner not much to talk about there and the other storm is not going to be much in the near furture. I think everyone should take a break from hurricanes today watch some football, have a good time because by another week from now, we'll be in alert mode again. Have a great day everybody and may the best teams win! 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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"a fish spinner folks can ooh and aah over without feeling like they're egging on a killer."
But what about the fish?
On Jeanne, one thing the is going against is the "Debbie" end and calling this storm a fighter(Thanks if stays on course to the NC).
Quote:
SHOULD JEANNE TURN MORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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One more thing before I head out today. Last night I purposely Watched CBS news and Dan Rather to see what their take on and jeanne would be. I know his record for theatrics so i had to see. Just for the record, I never watch those guys. Anyhow, Dan showed the track that the had put out at like 5am or 11am going into SE coastline instead of the most recent 5 pm track that the put out not showing that. Did they not have access to that 5pm projected path when their broadcast statred at 6:30pm? yeah, right. Did that suprise me? well, what do you think?. just more fuel to the fire of my belief that the national news networks don't have much credibilty when it comes to these storms. The most important thing is their big story rather than presenting what the facts are at a given time.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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The 6:30 PM News is actually taped earlier.. So they may not have had access to the 5PM Forecast.
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Anone
Unregistered
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6:30 newsw in eastern time zone is live...ditto to comments about credibility!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just returned from looking at the visible loop on Jeanne. Don't take this as gospel but I am wondering if we won't come back at 5:00 pm to find Jeanne winding up to a formidable looking hurricane/strong tropical storm. There is something coming together on those loops that makes my short hairs rise on the back of my neck. I am not predicting a Florida landfall, just a surprise for those who come back at 5:00 pm( maybe)
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Continuing from the last thread:
DarthYankee,
Funny thing happened on the way to my synopsis of Joe B report making "zero zilch no" sense eh? Looked at the Goes 12 lately? I'll give you a hint - the 500mb UK Met today is doing the same thing it was yesterday. has jumped on line with 's remnants but hasn't caught onto Jeanne yet. Remember, if Joe's forecast verifies, it's not going to happen until late week. But maybe you can start to appreciate the magnitude of the strongest high pressure (maybe not in mb's but certainly in scope) of the season. Then again, maybe not. But I'd advise you to put the below link in motion:
Animate this link
richie,
I don't agree with either you and Spock on the second to last page of the prior thread. None of Accuweather's stuff is written in stone, and that's hardly the way Joe presents himself on tv, his site or his column. You're simply mischaracterizing him.
This is utter bull**** because you're so hormoned out over Accuweather presenting something other than the official track. Joe said he believes it will hit the US and be off the Bahamas as a cat 2 or 3 after 5-6 days. If it doesn't verify, rest assured he will be the first one to tell you so and why. So unless you're paying your $14.95 a month, don't mischaracterize the truth to serve your own agenda:
I'll vent a little more on this subject myself. It seems to me, from what I've seen, that after their first "written in stone" forecast" doesn't verify then there is never an admittance that we were wrong here and here is an updated forecast of what we now believe will happen. It's like it's all just forgotten and they just move on with their new "written in stone" forecast. You see, in my opinion, if you are going to go out on a limb and predict something is going to happen with "absolute authority" then when you are wrong you ought to be able to humble yourself just a little and admit It. Besides, what is so wrong witth putting out an projected path but then saying " Here, in our opinion, is what we believe it will do". Once again, I know what I saw and heard..."This storm WILL hit the US!"...right, Mr. Spock? The fact is...nodody knows.
That my friend is absolute b.s. and a complete mischaracterization. Nothing personal of course, but you obviously don't get the big picture.
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Spock,
>>As far as JB, he also DIDN"T NEED TO say cat II or better in S. Fla. for Jeanne in the time frame he did.
That's what he believes. People accuse him of hyping and sensationalism. He likes the extreme stuff (as apparently so do we). But that was his opinion. I have not read today's post, but let me see...
He thinks it's cat 2 or 3 by Tuesday/Wed with all options open. 's MLC should split south and southwest tonight bringing gales to the northern GA coast and end up in the NE Gulf by around Monday nigh (depending on what's left). The irony woul dbe something heading toward the West and Central Gulf (again, due to the pattern, similar to way Gaston was sniffed out 2 weeks before anything was there) that is neither nor Jeanne, but could be one or both.
I said last Thursday morning on S2K and posed a challenge in 3 different threads for any of the met gurus to figure out what is the most complex tropical situation we've seen in forever. Bastardi also acknowledges(ed) the same thing and presents his opinion as such.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve Hirschber.
Unregistered
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Pardon me, I was not bashing JB....I like him as a forecaster, always betting for the long shot based on pattern recognition. I believe that Jeane will be a hurricane and with complicated pattern at hand, nobody from Miami to North Carolina should take their eyes off her, since she will get trapped underneath the ridge. I have been storm tracking for 40 years, and have never seen such a difficult pattern to forecast since the '60's. And the western caribbean will be heard from in the next 5 weeks....that's if the atlantic slows. Lots of tracking ahead....hope they don't impact anyone. Now to put my fence back up and cut up the trees!! Cheers!!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Truthfully, I never pay get my weather information or news from national sources. That even includes, now. Granted, I am an exception. I have seen enough of how news coverage works from all sides through personal experiences and close friends to know that the information is usually never very accurate. Locals are more accurate however, even then they are subject to the pressures of sensationalisim. I am a believer in gather differing opinions and making my own decision. However, I always defer to official sources when it gets down to crunch time.
If I can go after the cause rather then the effect here, does have a problem with media presence. I hate to say this but Max Mayfield always seems to strike me as more of a government worker then a meteorologist. I think Ed Rappaport comes off with his explanations a little better. Just personal opinion. I think they need to work ontheir PR a bit. Heck, even adding bios to the TPC's web page would be nice. Is any of this improtant to the actual forecasting? No not at all. However,much to my chagrin, with todays media, image means as much as substance.
In all honesty, I miss Dr Bob Sheets and Dr Neil Frank. I thought they both did a very good job of getting the message out and the thinking behind them. That is what seems to be missing to me.
Ob Jeanne talk, I see the models starting to show some of what JB mentioned about the loop. Wait and see if any of this verifies. It ain't over until it's over and in this hurricane season. Even if it is over, it may not be over. Right, ?
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 18 2004 03:59 PM)
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Well my forcast on how it cuts across florida is actually 6-12 hours before JB,, but since he posts his the following mornings, IM sure we thought about it around the same time. Couple nights ago I posted that I feel there was a better chance that Jeanne would move up to near 75-77W and near 29N. Most models then too her into the Carolinas but I said she might do a loop and head sw-wsw-w into florida between 27N and 28.5. I think it might be just a day or 2 later like Weds-Thurs but Im not going out of what I see happening unless the ridge doesnt stick out to the east to 70W. She is currently 1.5dg east of where I expected her from 5 days back. Not bad but not good cause she moved alittle slower then I saw. Anyways forecast is still on track but adjusted just east to near 29N and 71-72W before the loop and turn back to the wsw on Monday. I still feel also she will become a strong hurricane unless she somehow losses her circulation during the next 12 hrs.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I ment turn on there,, I need to get back to login.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This is Jeannes path that I just observed the saying, try and follow because it's very confusing. It first starts out with a NW motion followed by a more north motion to NNE motion for about 3 days, then it acclerates away from the Bahamas and then does a loop and comes back down to about the lat of South Florida. By the time it's there, the is indicating a moderate trough in the mid-west approaching the east coast. If this is a accurate forecast which I'm not to sure then this could be more of a Hatteras storm then a Florida storm. Hopefully Jeanne will make up her mind and it will be more clear, but for now I'm stuck in a rut.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sat Sep 18 2004 04:27 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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With all due respect, the segment on Greta's show was not defensible. The mistake I made is that I don't remember his name, and threw in JB's.
I stand by my opinion. you don't guarantee things, especially serious things, when the state is already scared.
This other forecaster said "it WILL hit South Fla, with AT LEAST 96-110 mph winds", and his time frame looks off too.
Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 18 2004 04:04 PM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Could you let me know where you pulled your run and the run time.
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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LOOKS LIKE JEANNE LIKES THE BAHAMAS SO MUCH, SHE'S GOING BACK IN A FEW DAYS FOR A FOLLOW UP VISIT.... OUTSIDE OF THIS, LET'S FACE IT...IT'S A HURRICANE FOR THE FISH
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Accuweather but it costs money and you can't animate the time frames.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Try this one and see what you come up with.
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I must have a made a mistake there somewhere, or I'm looking at an old model run. Thanks I see where I made the mistake, I got the motion correct but the same Lat of Charleston is incorrect.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sat Sep 18 2004 04:26 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Interesting, possibility that Karl is what actually keeps Jeanne from coming back around. Would not mind seeing that happen one bit.
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Jim
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