MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
10:45AM
Hurricane Jeanne is now category 3 with 115MPH winds pressure down to 955 and strengthening...
Forecast track shifted left a bit more, more of a threat to Palm Beach County and Martin county. Still could turn north, but that is getting less likely. The new forecast track does take it up the peninsula after it makes landfall, however.
Hurricane watches are now also up for parts of the Florida west coast.
You should not focus on the exact track within this map, the storm is a large area and the track may be off many miles. All areas in the warning area need to prepare.
more to come.
Original Update
Overnight Jeanne strengthened some, pressure went down to 957 and windspeed went up 5mph. The structure of the storm is still good. This morning's aircraft recon found clouds in the eye, but still a closed eyewall, meaning during today as it moves over more warm water it could strengthen. The even said possibly to Category 4. The current T numbers (satellite windspeed estimates) also seem to back up this claim of strengthening. (6.5T)
Jeanne is currently nearing Abaco island in the Bahamas.
However, things that would keep it from that strength are the large size of the eyewall (if it begins to shrink watch out), and some of the dry air around it. Jeanne has been handling the dry air around it ok so far. So the forecast is for a major hurricane landfalling on the east coast. Even though pressure had dropped overnight it isn't dropping as fast now..
The track has shifted a little west. So it includes going up the peninsula... Through , affected areas. The forward speed has increased, and the eye is now visible on the Miami long range radar. The worst of it will occur overnight tonight, but rainbands from the storm will begin this afternoon.
You should not focus on the exact track within this map, the storm is a large area and the track may be off many miles. All areas in the warning area need to prepare.
This track could veer left or right... If if veered left, it would take it into West Palm Beach, and, if so, would bring the worst to the northern part of Palm Beach county. If it veers to the right it would bring Brevard county and Indian River counties into the worst of the mix. The northern half of the storm is the more dangerous (although I still wouldn't want to be in the southern semicircle either) around the eyewall. Recon is interesting though, although they had found pressures around 957 earlier, they haven't reported back as high of max flight level winds which suggests to me that jeanne may be restructuring a bit.
Anyway, since the hurricane center has brought it up, I'd be prepared for a category 4 system striking, and hope and pray for less.
And at this point heed the advice of local officials and listen to local media.
Event Related Links
StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Jeanne Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
|
Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
|
|
looks like i might be on the right side of this hurricane...potentially near the right eyewall...i guess i should board up
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
Yesterday, the water vapor loop clearly showed the western end of the ridge eroding. The erosion and Jeanne were equal distance to the center of the state.
This morning it looks like the erosion stopped and the high actually seems to be building toward the west.
I can't see any reason why it would turn until it gets in the gulf. Can anyone point out what it going to make it turn in the next 24 hours. The edge of the high pressure ridge is still considerably of the gulf coast of Florida.
Just my opinion.
Also, don't look now, but and UKMet models have Lisa near herberts box in five days.
Edited by alan (Sat Sep 25 2004 12:41 PM)
|
AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
|
|
TWC just played a Tropicana commercial. Playing on the soundtrack was the theme song from I Dream of Jeannie. I'm ready for the room with the padded walls and the nice young men in their clean white coats. 
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
VERY impressed with satellite signature...this COULD conceivably achieve category 4 status, especially with the pressure dropping to 957 millibars. Another thing that popped out at me while looking at the satellite was the comma shape that the cloud pattern is taking on. From what I have seen, some developing (and intense) hurricanes will show this comma-like cloud pattern.
look out...
|
nandav
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
|
|
I always seem to post just as the new forum comes up. So I'll repeat my question from the other one:
So I wonder how much of a chance is it that Jeanne goes marching straight across the state... or turns N a little late.. and hits us with higher than tropical storm force winds. It's probably dumb to even ask if that's within the realm of possibility, since it seems that just about ANYTHING has been possible this season!
Since our house in Pt Charlotte is not quite liveable right now, we are actually in student housing at the local college .. and they will make us evacuate if we have hurricane warnings up ..which means going to the gym with 1700 college students!! (Although we have alternate arrangements.. if there's time .. but I wonder how much time we'll have if that scenario occurs!!)
|
Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
Does anyone have a good link to the UKMET model...just trying to learn hurricanes as I use to live in Ohio and was a weather spotter for the NWS there but severe thunderstorms are a totally different animal.
--------------------
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
|
VandyBrad
Unregistered
|
|
UKMET and others:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
the best link is up in the first discussion box. Click on the line that has about five models. Right now, the first two are underlined, but they get you to the ukmet.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Repasting this from this mornings Melbourne local statement.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WE ARE CONCERNED AFTER WATCHING SOME NEWS ACCOUNTS REGARDING
RESIDENTS OF BARRIER ISLANDS WHO ARE PLANNING TO RIDE OUT HURRICANE
JEANNE BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH HURRICANE . WE HAVE
DONE A DETAILED DAMAGE SURVEY OF THE COASTLINE OF THE IMPACT OF
HURRICANE ...AND IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS TO REALIZE
THAT THE WORST WIND AND STORM SURGE FROM AFFECTED AN
UNPOPULATED AREA OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND BETWEEN FORT PIERCE BEACH AND
JENSEN BEACH AND NETTLES ISLAND. THE GREATEST IMPACT WAS FROM
NEAR MIDDLE COVE BEACH ACCESS TO HERMAN'S BAY PARK. EVIDENCE OF
BATTERING WAVES ON TOP OF STORM SURGE TO A HEIGHT OF 12 FEET OR
GREATER...ALONG WITH EXTREME BEACH EROSION AND A BRIDGE FAILURE...
WERE NOTED. IMPORTANTLY...PEOPLE LOCATED ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH END
OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND DID NOT RECEIVE THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS OF
FRANCES.
WE ALSO NOTED THAT VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY EXPERIENCED
ONLY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE EFFECTS FROM . SOUTHERN BREVARD
AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES EXPERIENCED CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY
IMPACTS WITH MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES SOLIDLY WITHIN THE CATEGORY
TWO IMPACT RANGE. TO BASE YOUR EVACUATION DECISION SOLELY ON YOUR
PERSONAL EXPERIENCES DURING IS A MISTAKE.
JEANNE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE INNER EYEWALL MAKES LANDFALL. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME
THIS MORNING TO COMMIT TO EVACUATING AS ADVISED AND MOVE TO SAFETY.
WE HAVE MADE IT THROUGH AND WITHOUT ANY DIRECT DEATHS
FROM HURRICANE WIND OR WATER IMPACTS...PLEASE FOLLOW ADVICE OF YOUR
COUNTY OFFICIALS AND LETS ALL MAKE IT THROUGH THIS AGAIN.
I have a feeling some folks are going to be a little caught off guard by this one base on prior experiences.
|
rugrats
Unregistered
|
|
I just wanted to let you know that this is an awesome board, I've been lurking for a long time! By the way I did go and vote for this board.
I have a question....Is it possible that Jeanne will make it into the gulf? I'm in the FL panhandle and was just curious to see what everyones opinion is on this.
Thanks 
|
Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
Thanks guys.
Now the question is am I reading the model right and it has shift more NW (ie closer to Melbourne) than what has been shown before?
--------------------
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
|
ROB IN PA
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
|
|
If you look at 8:00 update they say she is moving at 14mph and this course should hold for 24hrs. Well she is only 190 miles from coast. Math is not my strongest field but that puts her almost to GOM in 24 hrs. This storm in my amateur opinion is not going to turn. I have most of family in ft laud and palm beach area and I wish they were right and it would turn but not counting on it.
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Someimes it's difficult to see a storm turning until it actually begins to take place.
I still have confidence in the track but speakiing froma track basis only.
Andrew was always going to turn but kept coming WEst West West. Looks like Jeanne might have the GOM on her mind.
Can any mets on here tell us if the High pressure is giving way to the North.
|
BVaught
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Quote:
looks like i might be on the right side of this hurricane...potentially near the right eyewall...i guess i should board up
I do not know where you live Bioman, however board up asap. The winds will increase rapidly today and boarding up later may not be possible. A 4x8 sheet of plywood is like a big sail and very hard to handle in heavy winds.
A big thank you to and all who post and maintain this forum. I am a building contractor and live near Wekiva Springs.
I will be happy to answer any questions on protecting your homes or businesses, however time is running out very fast. Please pm any questions and keep the forum clear for emergency information only during this hurricane.
Thank you
"Hope all goes well for us all dear friends
God Bless us all."- Quote from my friend Joe
Barry
|
AnotherLurker
Unregistered
|
|
Hello, Great site, been reading a few weeks now. Native Floridian who's lived elsewhere for 30 years; can't help but follow the storms this year, though.
Have been mulling over if anything's different about Jeanne that might matter and I keep coming back to wondering if there's enough simple trash (tree limbs, damaged furniture, pieces of houses, etc) stacked out everywhere to cause noticeable extra damage? Anyone have any sense of what wind speeds and gusts will pick 5-10-20 pound "stuff" up and turn it into damaging projectiles?
|
VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
|
|
Honestly Bruce,
I've been looking at the UKMET every 12 hours or so and this run appears to have shifted more over the right. Early runs looked to take it into the GOM and up into the panhandle like . This run almost looks like it is in better agreement with the than it was before. Granted, the landfall location may be off by up to 50 miles, and this could be huge considering the way worked. To be safe, I would just assume that if you are in the dreaded cone at this point, you should assume the eye will make landfall over you. The only time it looks like you're going to be safe (from the eye, not the overall storm) is once the center gets north of you.
--------------------
Brad Shumbera
|
alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
|
|
Remember the models that early on had it going up the west side of the state were basing their predictions on a 12-13 mph track. the ones for the eastern turn were averaging about 9 mph. It's now going 14 which I think makes it even further west before the turn.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Yeah recon has pressure down again to 956, slightly, which is kinda what I expected because of the eye form currently. The eye is starting to do weird things right now. Center is a hair north from the last advisory too, but not enough to call it anything more than a western motion. The trend now will determine how strong Jeanne gets when it makes landfall..
|
tazman
Unregistered
|
|
Barry..... saw your post and as you said, you live near Wekiva Spring... my in-laws aslo live there and we have asked them to come stay with us in a single story new home just east of Clermont. They have a custom two story and you guys over there lose power everytime! Do you think it will be worse by you rather than here?? Thanks
Scott
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
