MikeC
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October 1st Update 6:40PM EDT
Karen and Melissa are no more, but we are watching a disturbance off the coast of Florida that may develop into something subtropical over the next day or so. The winds are more from the pressure gradient, but the rains around the area have some influence from this disturbance.
The disturbance is now being tracked as 90L, you can let us know conditions in your area here.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Karen has dissipated, ripped apart by shear, but is holding the remnant low still. If shear abates it is possible for the system to regenerate, we'll be continuing to watch it since storms that weaken this much tend to drift more westward. Chances are still greatest that it will turn out to sea before it approaches land, however.
An area east of Florida is worth watching over the next few days for development, nothing entirely to imminent now, however. You can find more discussion on this, here.
The pressure gradient between these systems and the northwest is what is creating the winds along parts of Florida, not this system itself.
Melissa is holding is a minimal tropical storm, and is going to be affected by shear much like Ingrid and Karen were, it should not affect land.
Southeast Composite Radar
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Storm Hunter
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well looks like we got a mid-upper level low developing of the SE of Florida again... pressures are dropping a tad in that area at the surface too... The surface flow is very strong out of the NE right now.... Looking at the overall models... almost looks like we will have another system to track in coming days... either from the east coast of Florida down to the western caribbean.
vis sat
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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punkyg
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Loc: sanford, florida
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Has karens center dissipate yet or is it still swirling.
is the shear starting to lessin.
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danielw
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NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-128
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z
edit: 02/1800Z is Noon EDT on Tuesday
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 30 2007 05:53 PM)
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Ed in Va
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The suggested that a storm could be forming to the SW of Karen:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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DaViking
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Loc: Crystal River, FL
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It looks like on Vis satellite that there might be a broad low level low developing. Surface observations seem to confirm it also.
East or Southeast Bahamas, buoy 41046: SSE Winds 11.7-13.6 knots
Northeast Bahamas, buoy 41047: E Winds 21.4-25.3 knots.
Settlement point GBI NW Bahamas: NNE Winds 24-27 knots.
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Lived in Florida 31 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.
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weathernet
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As Mike mentioned correctly earlier today, some pressure falls have been noted in the Bahamas. In addition, a swirl was noticable on vis. sat. today, and duly noted per Miami National Weather Service Forecast Discussion from earlier today -
".....Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 301845
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007
.DISCUSSION...A LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS ANALYZED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY ...."
From where I sit, this small surface vorticity along with the strong high pressure ridge may well continue to enchance S. Florida's wet and windy weather, but if in fact there is to be any tropical cyclone development to occur from within this "tropical constipation", than I believe it will yet come from this same area of disturbed weather east of Florida. In coming days I still anticipate some development perhaps to retrograde westward towards South or Central Florida, but not from this weak transient low level swirl. Will be interesting to see if pressures continue to fall east of Fla.
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LoisCane
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I don't know but I'm here in Miami with the wind blowing, intermittent squalls... no constant winds but gusty squalls and yet I can't help but look at remnants of Karen more than what is closer to home.
Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.
yet... Karen looks interesting, or what was known as Karen. Since still refers to it as Karen I feel safe calling it that too..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
Looks to me like the area to the SE of the old center is not convection blown off of any old center to the nw of it and yes its firing up because of the ULL but i don't think the ULL is that big right now as the one off of Florida is bigger..
very complex picture between what would or should be a dead karen lighting up the night's sats and the area near florida which is also stuck between a rock and a hard place shear wise even though some hybrid may develop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
interesting still
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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madmumbler
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Loc: SWFL
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Quote:
Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.
And funny, over here in w Charlotte county, on the "other side" of the frontal line, it's felt like "fall" since yesterday. Comfortably cool, feeling very mild and dry (don't know what actual humidity is, but it FEELS lower than usual). I told my dh yesterday it's like FALL here in FL. *LOL*
Very gusty though Saturday and Sunday. Not so much today (yet) but I'm sure as the sun comes up and temps go up they will pick up.Like spring cold front system gusty winds.
This is WEIRD weather we're having lately. Really weird.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Storm Hunter
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Miami NWS...
..."STILL WATCHING A WEAK LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A LOW OR AN INVERTED TROUGH. 40 HAS THIS LOW OVER
THE FLORIDA BAY BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENGE
SHUTS DOWN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS
DRASTICALLY REDUCED."
11:30 TWD Monday
..."AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. "
CMC is still going a little strong with this area....and most globals are still trying to develope something a in the SE GOM in the coming days from this area.... Something to watch... and wait and see.... the trough looks to be backing up some now... conditions are looking to becoming more favorable...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 05:08 PM)
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Rabbit
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looks like just added 90L, likely on the bahamas system (no satellite images yet)
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Ed in Va
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Sat image up now...it is the Bahamas system.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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CDMOrlando
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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Until a moderator has had a chance to update the various links for this invest here is a link to the model plots.
SFWMD
SEE Storm 90
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Storm Hunter
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just threw a image together... found the BROAD low... see attachment... this is just my obs... looks to me its drifting to the WSW....
I put the broad center inside that red box i made on the map.... and the white arrow of what i think may be the current heading, for the next couple of hours... Upper level winds are not favorable for development right now, but should change in next 12-36 hrs
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 09:48 PM)
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weathernet
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Nice work on islolating what may very well be a developing T.D. Funny thing, though, throughout all this talk and finally a 90L tag on this appearant weak low right off the S. Fla. southeast coast, I have been and still remain more intrigued by the base of the mid level trough farther east around 73W and approx. 23N. This has been consistantly flaring up each day, and given the greater room to evolve, have greater concern if it breaks off, while remaining under the same ridge, and then itself moving westward.
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Storm Hunter
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lol... just threw that together... kinda watching it, this afternoon.... I am actully too looking to the east more on the base of the trough...  Looks like to me that a favorable pattern may be shaping up in the GOM in a few days.... which gives me some concern... Upper Levels i think are going to be key, with the ridge off to the North and east... Tell you one thing, love the NE winds we been getting for a few days... Another great beach day, considering we have had a few confirmed reports of RED TIDE along the Panahandle Beachs... which tells me we still got some good warm waters to the south of PC.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 11:26 PM)
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weather_wise911
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Actually, based on the latest QuickSCATT pass... seems the broad low is a little farther east. Near this location. (see attachment)
WW-911
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm.... i see what your talking about,but looks like the ran latest /Tropical Guidance suite on what i was pointing out.... its going to be hard to locate an actually one.... until it really developes... That weak Upper low in the SE GOM is pulling away i think... to the SW
90L first run: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 01 2007 11:24 PM)
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weather_wise911
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You're absolutely correct... until we get a well-defined circulation, it's going to be a coin toss. But I still feel like the primary low will develop (or rather IS developing) to the east of where the models have been initialized.
WW-911
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allan
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This is an interesting invest.. it's a HUGE area of disturbed weather and there are also 2 areas that need to be watched for invests. This is probably a sign that the weather up here will be deteriating due to the large expanse of moisture looping around the low. I somehow think this will be stronger then TD10. If you look at my attachment, I circled the 2 areas.. This whole thing looks like a ragged low pressure system with a warm and cold front.. very interesting
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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