MikeC
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November 1st 9pm EDT Update
As it accelerates to the north and east, Noel has intensified into a minimal hurricane this evening. Current maximum sustained winds are 75mph. No tropical cyclone advisories are up for the US coastline as it is expected to transition into an storm in the next day or so, but high winds are possible for Cape Cod and the Northeast US as Noel passes offshore Friday into Saturday.
November 1, 2007, 6AM EDT Update
Noel has held at 60mph overnight, pressure has dropped slightly, but Tropical Storm Warnings are now up as a precaution from Ocean Reef to Deerfield Beach, and a Tropical Storm watch north of there to Jupiter Inlet.
Although the storm is expected to pass to the east, the windfield from the storm has expanded enough westward to potentially cause tropical storm force winds along the area in the warning zone.
31/11PM EDT Update
No Tropical Storm Warnings for Florida, Tropical Watches remain from Jupiter inlet southward, however.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern bahamas.
Noel is still expected to move slowly northward, with most of the convection to the north and east of the center. The convection to the north and east of the center has increased quite dramatically tonight.
This site will be continuing to watch this stubborn system.
31/10PM EDT Update
Not much has changed with Noel, other than plenty of people scratching their heads trying to figure out what's really going on with it right now. The good news is that it doesn't look like it's making any more westward movement. The high to the northwest has died down, and so have a lot of the gradient driven winds.
It has some extremely high (cold) cloud tops in the convection east of the center, varied wind, fairly strong, and a highly highly complex environment around it. One of the oddest things I have seen.
31/7PM EDT Update
From the 21Z Bulletin: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA.
The Discussion noted (correctly) that the center of Noel has been stationary for the last few hours. The Discussion also noted that RECON had detected a secondary center trying to form to the northeast of the primary center. At 23Z the secondary center was located near 23N 78.4W, however for the last couple of hours this secondary center, under the circulation influence of the primary center, has been moving to the west - perhaps even a little south of due west.
Convection is again refiring this evening and some additional strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow. The models will eventually be correct on the future movement - but Noel is an excellent example of why one should not put all of their marbles in the 'model bag'.
Folks in south Florida need to closely monitor Noel's movement and status.
ED
1PM EDT Update
Latest Recon fix is 22.6N 78.8W, a bit WSW of the 11AM Position of 22.7N 78.5W.
From a Special Weather Statement out of Miami:
Quote:
Due to the complicated nature of the situation. All persons in southeast Florida are urged to stay abreast of the latest advisories and statements from the National Hurricane Center and the Miami Weather Forecast office. And heed the advice of local officials if tropical storm warnings are issued late this afternoon or evening.
What are conditions from Noel and the pressure gradient like in your area? Let us know here
11:50 AM Update
Noel isn't cooperating, the low level circulation appears to be moving away and out of the main circulation.
Too early to tell exactly what this means, more recon data will help, but it should keep everyone alert as to what this system does today.
11AM Update
Noel has strengthened a bit this morning since it has moved off Cuba, and it appears to continue to be strengthening. It is currently at 50MPH winds, with 994 mb pressure, moving north northwest at 8 mph.
There are still no Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings, but there are Gale Warnings out for South Florida. The wind field of Noel may be expanding, and if it does enough, Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for south Florida.
The forecast track still takes the center over 110 miles east of Florida, over the Bahamas, which do have Tropical Storm Warnings.
Regardless of Gale or Tropical Storm Warnings, it will be a nasty day along the coast, with gradient winds and some beach erosion.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved off of Cuba now (Recon last vortex center position was 22.7°N 78.2°W), and is entering the Atlantic, it has a brief opportunity to strengthen today before shear kicks up to the point where the system may weaken again, and it has the potential to strengthen again after it becomes an System in the Atlantic. Which means a fair amount of the East Coast (not just Florida) will have to deal with rough surf and gradient winds.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, there are no Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida.
Gradient winds today will, especially in South Florida, likely be brisk, with occasional higher gusts up to gale force. Today is mixed, some of the rain today is not directly from the storm, but some of the lower level clouds may cause some rain and may move west and southwest through the state today.
. Noel's clouds may expand, but the "Wall" keeping it from moving much further west, is also help keeping the convection away from Florida. However, It is possible for some of the western edge of the heavier convection to reach South Florida if Noel strengthens more than expected, so it's still important to watch if you are in South Florida.
It is enough to keep at least those in South Florida watching it closely. It may be a bit rough for Halloween down there, but should be slightly better in Central Florida unless you are right along the coast. Noel will likely pass 110-150 miles east of South Florida, yet this won't mean much because of the indirect winds and beach erosion likely to be caused.
The storm's motion is currently North Northwest, and it's expected to curve more north to northeast during the day. The worst indirectly caused from Noel will be felt in Florida today until late Thursday.
What are conditions from Noel like in your area? Let us know here
For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.
Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
Cuban Radar
RAMSDIS closeup rapid visible satellite animation of Noel
Edited by Clark (Fri Nov 02 2007 01:01 AM)
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weathernet
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Well, I know the advisory says NNW. Am still not seeing it, and yet to see a clear vis. or RGB sat. that shows clear motion. Cuban radar seems down, and the overall envelope system still appears to be moving WNW. Hard to tell if we are seeing reorganization under the new bursting, or if the true center is dragging WNW, and the convection having moved closer to the center. Net motion for 24 hour period ending at 8:00am this morning has been 1.3 degrees north and 1.4 degrees west.
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cieldumort
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Recon fixed Noel at 995 mb
A most interesting component of this morning's center fix:
Storm NOEL:
Date/Time of Recon Report: October 31, 2007 12:49:20 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 22 ° 42 ' N 078 ° 10 ' W (22.70° N 78.17° W)
-Here-
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21°C (69.8°F) / 1524 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 18°C (64.4°F) / 1524 Meters
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MikeC
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Quote:
Well, I know the advisory says NNW. Am still not seeing it, and yet to see a clear vis. or RGB sat. that shows clear motion. Cuban radar seems down, and the overall envelope system still appears to be moving WNW. Hard to tell if we are seeing reorganization under the new bursting, or if the true center is dragging WNW, and the convection having moved closer to the center. Net motion for 24 hour period ending at 8:00am this morning has been 1.3 degrees north and 1.4 degrees west.
This may help:
Here is a good RAMSDIS link to watch for movement with during the day.
Granted this may be more of a reformation of the center since overnight, like what was mentioned in this mornings discussion, but I'll be watching that satellite loop closely over the next few hours to be sure.
The temperature (colder inner core than outer core) difference may be indicating an transition already starting to occur.
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charlottefl
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I know this violates the rules a little. Can someone help me out I'm supposed to fly into Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow from Guatemala at about 12:30pm.
I was wondering if they've mentioned anything about airport cancellations or anything like that in the area. What effects are expected in Ft. Lauderdale.
Thanks.
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Lee-Delray
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The airports stay open unless the winds are sustained at 50 mph; which is not expected. The High Wind Warning is due to expire tonight at 6PM; though it probably will be extended. As always, check with the airlines in the morning & be prepared for a bumpy landing.
Weather now is windy and partly sunny. The media seems to be hyping South Florida a lot more than needed. I saw on Yahoo where they are talking about evacutions because of Noel; not true. An old seawall in S. Palm Beach is failing from previous weather and they feel with the current winds (not Noel) the seawall will completely fail. The seawall is for only one condominum on the ocean.
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LoisCane
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excuse me for wondering here but... from the loops ive seen this morning Noel is intensifying and or... expanding into a larger ball and despite supposed shear it seems rounder and more filled in on the west side
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html
as for beach conditions, ill post them elsewhere when I get back from the beach at lunch (a block away on sobe) but...
this has had steady build up of convection and we are talking a storm very close to land and even the slightest shift in track can make a big difference .. even more so combined with change in intensity
difference between hype and playing it safe
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html
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MikeC
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The "western blowup" is actually closer to the center, the western edge of Noel's center is still exposed. The center recon found was a bit to the west and southwest of the big blowup It'll likely and the center will stay over 110 miles east of South Florida. If you look at the water vapor, the "wall" from yesterday is now more oriented north northeast than north like yesterday afternoon.
The more interesting thing will be any possible transition (which Recon may have hinted at--I'd still want to see if that continues), and what it does for the general winds and gradient winds. Beach Erosion will likely be Noel's biggest impact on Florida.
I still really don't see any reason for Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida, the effects of the system are already covered under the current advisories. This does not mean it won't be an ugly day today and tomorrow morning! Yes it appears close, and I know that makes people nervous, but there's a lot of valid weather reasons not to issue warnings and watches.
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danielw
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I am also seeing a slight return of the arc on the western side of the storm.
TWC did their Google map for the Vortex fix and I noticed the RECON center was WSW of the huge convective buildup.
Caution storm movements are based on a 12 hour average.
If it looks like it's moving toward you it probably is.
Remember Hurricane turned at least 3 hours before the upped their direction of motion.
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danielw
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I don't see where they are getting a hybrid type storm out of the EYE drop.
Temperatures are all in line for a Tropical Storm.
Height of 1000mb: 541m
Temperature / dewpoint at 1000mb: Not recorded / Not recorded
Wind speed and direction at 1000mb: 0kt 0 degrees
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Surface is at 995mb
Temperature / dewpoint at 995mb: 26.6C / 24.5C
Wind speed and direction at 995mb: 0kt 0 degrees
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Height of 925mb: 646m
Temperature / dewpoint at 925mb: 22.8C / 20.7C
Wind speed and direction at 925mb: 27kt 185 degrees
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Height of 850mb: 1385m
Temperature / dewpoint at 850mb: 21.4C / 18.3C
Wind speed and direction at 850mb: 21kt 195 degrees
As best I can tell at this moment. There is more than one RECON flying the storm. It appears that they have done a handoff frrom the St Croix crew to a Keesler Crew.
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doug
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The structural dynamic of this has certainly improved since yesterday. Took a look at the wide view of this system and the envelope now is huge, and the coverage has a westerly component to it. We will probably have to be patient for several hours to see if NNW is the true direction, or is more related to reorganization. My personal opinion is it is moving NNW, and the reorganization of the mid and low levels has completed.
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doug
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LoisCane
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arc on the westside
great explanation
even i could not think how to explain it... good phrase
storm has changed tremendously after it got back in the water and left cuba behind
and the front is there but not the best front i have ever seen
front will get stronger in time but right now... noel looks better than the front
everythings in timing
intensity especially
cant wait to see 11am
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danielw
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As of 1345Z, 945 AM EDT the water vapor loop is indicating that the western arc of Noel has progressed to a point frfom the Middle of Grand Bahama Island to Cayo Fragoso,Cuba to the 80W longitude line over Central Cuba near Santa Clara, Cuba
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/img/2007304_1415wv.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
This is the most western point of the cloud signature in the last two days.
Around midnight last night the western Arc had nearly flattened to a north south line.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/img/2007304_0345wv.jpg
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LoisCane
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is it possible that noel is responding to the deepening trough in the gulf to its west... ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html
storm looks different in a lot of ways
its responding to something
beven did say conditions were favorable for some intensification with his four scenarios
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doug
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Daniel I also note that the system seems to be having an influence on the trough across Florida., pushig it back a bit. Also the southern most portion of the envelope is expanding its coverages westward. I see the eastern most extent of the approaching trough is in the central gulf coast area between NO and P'cola, and its approach eastward is much more rapid than the storm's approach westward. In other words the race is on...
Yet, there is no real evidence to suggest that the storm will actually diretly effect Florida.
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doug
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Steve H1
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Pressure dropping pretty rapidly now.....down to 994 mb! The trough is really the one swinging trough the midwest now....that's the kicker. This will be very interesting! WIll they post a TS warning/hurricane watch for SE Florida later today? never know. Happy Halloween!
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LoisCane
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Yeah, in a discussion I found hard to read compared to the excellent one beven did at 5... they seem to feel they may have to issue a warning because we will be experiencing tropical storm winds but it's not really from the storm but from the pressure gradient and they posed the question why... sort of... and referred us to the NWS for more info
After the 11 am discussion I may spend the rest of the day on NWS and here....
Why?
Because if we have tropical storm force winds then it should be issued and not a high wind warning
why? people pay attn to Tropical Storm Warnings.. vs Wind Warnings which they think means "windy"
Why? Does it make a difference if its from a gradient connected to Noel or from Noel directly.. if some palm branch flies into your car window shield while you are driving your child to go halloweening "for just a little while" ...do you care the wind came from the storm itself or the weather associated with the storm..
Words games while the public's interests are not being served...
No one is saying a Cat 2 Hurricane is moving towards South Florida but while this storm intensifies (clearly happening) and expands (definitely) the winds will pick up and people need to know whether to expect kids to go to school tomorrow or drive a long commute into work or take the day off.
After Irene I thought they learned and it doesn't help to go on and update at 1pm after everyone is stuck at work far from home or out in traffic with rising water and rising winds..
and.. I don't care if it's extra-tropical or tropical.. i care what the winds will be and if i will or wont be in their path
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doug
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Uh, Er!...don't want to be contrary here, but I think we can now just begin to follow on visible the LLC on the SW portion of the convective bubble...pardon me, but that motion is NOT NNW...I go with WNW.
Anybody esle have any opinion?
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doug
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MikeC
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Yeah it appears the Low Level Circulation is attempting to move out... Now it's MORE exposed than it was a few hours ago.
For those wanting a big wildcard added to the mix, you now have it with this..
Here you can see the 11AM Official position, the Main Convection, and the apparant Low Level Circulation Center moving off to the west, slightly. It's probably best to waiting for some more recon data to really determine what's going on, but strange things are afoot near the Bahamas, Ted.
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Storm Hunter
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Concur with ur drawing above MikeC.... Although i am curious if its the true low level center... need a little more data on it... but its sure can spinning out to the wnw from the deep convection
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