MikeC
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2:00AM Update
Gustav will be upgraded to a hurricane with winds of 80MPH at the next advisory.
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.
2:00PM Update
Recon reports have confirmed Gustav has formed in the Caribbean with 60Mph winds. A special advisory will be arriving shortly.
All Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings mentioned earlier are now Hurricane Watches/Warnings.
More to come soon.
11:00AM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from santo domingo westward into Hati to Port Au Prince.
Tropical Strom watches are up from north of Port au Prince to the rest of Hati.
The forecast track has a great deal of uncertainty now due to model spreads, Two scenarios right now, a more northerly track, and one more Westward, the official forecast is somewhere in the middle, but the later days in the official track are highly uncertain (according to the National Hurricane Center).
This puts South Florida in the cone once again, but any potential effects would likely not be seen until the Weekend or early next week.
There is a good chance for strengthening in this system. The National Hurricane Center may change the track/intensity informaion after a recon aircraft investigates the depression later today.
9:50AM Update
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the Caribbean from 94L, advisories and more to begin at 11AM this morning. Haiti and Jamaica are the most immediate concerns.
Original Update
A low pressure area (94L) in the Central Caribbean likely will become a tropical depression or storm Today. Satellite Estimated T Numbers are about 2.5, which is enough to support a Depression or weak Tropical Storm, so chances are it could form at anytime today.
It's likely the Hurricane Center is waiting for Recon before updating since it appears a Low Level Circulation isn't easy to spot or find now, if there is one.
Those in Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas will need to watch this one.
Tropical Storm Warnings for Hispaniola may be issued later today.
Beyond that, Florida and the Gulf will want to watch the system, currently it is too early to say with any sort of confidence where this system may go or how strong. The only thing you can do now is watch the model trends.
More to Come Soon...
Discuss models and future possibilities for 94L in the lounge.
Jamaican Media
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Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
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Love 101 Radio
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Jamaican Meteorological Service
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
2:00AM Update
Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 26 2008 07:29 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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very interesting morning to say the least.... what is that hole there on the eastern side of the convection?  models want have a good fix on things until we get a "center"... and judging by what i have seen this morning... i expect we have a decent system already on our hands.. shear is almost a non-threat to it right now... outflow in upper levels is almost perfect... got good banding on the southern side... whats underneath is what recon has to find out..
What do you think it is?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 12:55 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Wind shear essentially very light in the western half of the Caribbean Sea so there is good likelihood for continued development of this embryonic Tropical Depression. See Area of Concern in the Storm Forum for initial thoughts on this system. Also please read the post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance on model output discussions.
ED
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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TD 7 does not look like a depression to me, at least on the microwave imagery. I am attaching a pass from little over two hours ago. It has a nice banding feature go to the north and east as well as what appears to be already a nascent eye.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I'm guessing that recon will find a minimal TS or, at least, a very strong depression similar to Fay's development. Vis sat presentation is pretty impressive this morning. Future track bears constant watching.
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Michael
PWS
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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Really won't know much until the HH get there. Going tb be another big rain event for Hispanolia & Cuba if nothing else. If the assumption is correct and its further west, we're looking at a Gulf storm.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I found it interesting that actually mentioned the "eye-like" feature in the 11am discussion. I think this could be a rapidly deepening system with the ever increasing presentation on vis sat. It looks to be much better vertically stacked than Fay.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
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It's interesting that soon-to-be Gustav quite possibly will have the same issue in the early stages as Fay -- interaction with Hispaniola and/or Cuba. Of course, that's if the 's forecast plays out, and they made it clear in the 11 a.m. discussion that they don't have much confidence in any scenario yet.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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I would have to agree that it is very interesting that the 11 am discussion mentioned an "eye like" feature. Don't want to jump the gun here but I sense some urgency in their discussion and they are of course awaiting HH before they upgrade to Gustav.
Fay never had this "eye like" feature this early and what catches my attention about this one is the "eye" has been constant over the last several hours...could this potentially already be a hurricane?
Last vis sat frame shows nice ring around this "eye like" feature but does appear to be on east side of deepest convection.
p.s. Labor Day Weekend ahead too.....
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Yeah but this time its most likey not going to be a due westward motion through Hispanola, which really kept Fay at bay... A NW type of track will allow "Gustav" to brush off the effects sooner.... This storm bears lots of watching, models have been all over the place, and one of the most reliable ones (GFS) didnt even pick it up.
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: seminole cnty florida
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Recon is in the air. The plane is about 1/3 of the way to the depression.
Location: 99 miles (160 km) to the S (179°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
I do not think that it will take them as long with this storm as Fay with finding the center or even topical storm force winds.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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oh recon should find a center.. really easy. There about 450 miles from what i think is the center. Thats an eye in my book with a HOT TOWER on the WSW side in the last hr... rapid intensification in my book.... i'm not sure i by the north of Cuba track... will see... see the AF guys had to move to Homestead AFB. thats where this recon took off... man.. recon this year, both NOAA and AF have had to relocate homebase twice already... and were not halfway through the season!
... really nice sat shot
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 04:17 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I picked this up off of offshore forecast discussion:
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED NEAR 15.5N 70.1W
1006 MB AT 11 AM EDT MOVING NW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NW TO NEAR 16.5N 71.1W TONIGHT
...THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SW COAST OF
HAITI NEAR 17.6N 72.2W TUE MORNING...TO NEAR 18.8N 73.3W TUE
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA NEAR
19.7N 74.2W BY WED MORNING. THE TROPICAL STORM IS THEN FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK ALONG OVER THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21.0N 75.5W BY THU MORNING AND PARALLEL THE REMAINDER OF THE
COAST OF CUBA FRI AND SAT.
Which pretty much sums up the official track.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Hmmm... banding looking better and better, "eye-like" feature... looks like the strongest TD I've ever seen
awaiting the models with recon data progged in as to where STBGustav will go...
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Raw T-Numbers are sitting at 3.7 which is pretty impressive for a Tropical Depression. The 'eye-like feature' is midlevel, which is why the raw T numbers are probably overstating TD-7's actual pressure and intensity. All in all I would be shocked if the HH's didn't find both a closed system and winds over 50MPH.
I can't see any reason to quibble with the 's forecast path, and they aren't afraid to admit in the discussion that their confidence is rather low on this one (particularly in the day 4 and 5 forecast). So, it may trend left, and it looks like the initial direction of the possible center seems closer to 300 than 315. (but we all know the caveat about trying to judge motion based on relatively short satellite loops...)
Either way, someone's going to get a lot of rain and wind.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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MikeC
Admin
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Recon just recently crossed to South of Hati and it looks like they are flying at a low level, not sure that's such a great idea with how the system looks now. (It looks like it's in full on strengthening mode right now) I am very interested in seeing what recon finds here.
edit...
First round of recon info indicates it's a Tropical Storm already.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Recon just went through the center... Keep an eye to the site.. Expect a special tropical disturbance statement any time now.
Recon SFMR data is showing 45 knots (~ 51.7 mph) to 60kts i think i saw.. there coming in from NW side
flying at 725 meters (~ 2,379 feet) and hit flt lvl winds around From 36° at 44 knots (From the NE at ~ 50.6 mph) at 15.9833N 70.6667W
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 05:41 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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SH, Here is some data to go with your post.
updated data:
Time:
17:36:30Z
Coordinates:
15.7333N 70.35W
Acft. Static Air Press:
925.4 mb (~ 27.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
671 meters (~ 2,201 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
999.2 mb (~ 29.51 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 202° at 65 knots (From the SSW at ~ 74.8 mph)
Air Temp:
21.4°C (~ 70.5°F)
Dew Pt:
20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
66 knots (~ 75.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 25 2008 05:48 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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looks like flight level center is around 15.8167N 70.4833W...possible pressure of 995.8 mb (~ 29.41 inHg)
air temp 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F) / dew pt. 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F) at 647 meters (~ 2,123 feet) with surface wind around 7 knots* (~ 8.0 mph*). at 17:33:00Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 25 2008 05:51 PM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
Recon just went through the center... Keep an eye to the site.. Expect a special tropical disturbance statement any time now.
I am sure you guys have told us this before, but exactly WHERE on the site do these statements get issued. Some may find that site rather intimidating until they have played around with it a bit. Thanks!
I am watching this storm particularly closely as it looks like it is REALLY getting its act together quickly and Florida is once again 'in dah cone'. My area was one of the few in the state spared of most of Fay's mess. We may not be so blessed again this season!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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