MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Hurricane Watches are up for the Keys, and a full evacuation is going on there. See here for more information.
Hurricane Ike is fast approaching Great Inagua island in the Bahamas, the island is mostly unpopulated except for Matthew Town on the southwest side with approximately 1000 people. Ike will likely move over this community with the full force of a Category 4 hurricane. After this it should approach Cuba, and the current track has it exiting near Havana. It is expected to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it gets there, however. After it exits Cuba the lower keys may see some outer fringe effects from the system as it moves into the Central Gulf.
Because of the uncertainty, the Florida Keys have mandatory evacuations for visitors.
Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)
Monroe County Emergency Bulletins (Florida Keys)
Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
If Cuba disrupts the core, Ike would have a hard time reforming (similar to Gustav). If it does not, it is likely to again strengthen into a major hurricane. The is thinking restrengthening will take a while after it approaches Cuba.
Some of the guidance models are suggesting more of a threat to Texas this time around, but others have started to move more eastward into the Gulf, including the Florida Panhandle. This means the entire cone should be watching this, which would unfortunately include the Florida Keys (which will likely at least see some minor effects from the storm and may have watches/warnings issued), and in the Florida Panhandle westward all the way to Corpus Christi Texas. At the foretasted rate of movement it would not near the Gulf Shores until Saturday or Sunday of next week, which means there is a lot that could change before now and then. If the models start moving more north or east (some of them this morning have), then forget all this. In other words the entire Gulf should monitor Ike, including all of Florida and Mexico.
Watch model trends to get a feel of the general direction, but not of the eventual landfall point, and take the National Hurricane Center's track over all.
Hanna is extra tropical now, and back in the sea, It is expected to affect Nova Scotia in Canada, however.
The remnant of Josephine are still being watched for redevelopment, but it's not likely. And there is nothing else in the Tropics to really watch at the moment.
Color Sat of Gulf
Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
|
smorse22
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl
|
|
I live on the west coast of Florida. I now see that we are out of the cone. The weather channel yesterday was talking about a high that might seperate and make Ike come up the west coast of Florida. Do you believe that this is still a possiblity?
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
It's possible, but if your talking about right along the west coast then maybe 20% @ this time. West coast getting some Tropical Storm force gusts about 1/3 chance. Things can change, but I wouldnt worry about it right now unless you live in the Keys!
|
RU12
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc:
|
|
The latest model runs at the website appear to be trending back towards the east so I wouldn't write off any area until the COC has passed to the west of it. Even then there's the chance of a loop de loop as we observed with Hanna. I don't think anyone on the Gulf Coast is entirely out of the woods yet.
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
They dont look like they are going back to the east. Lets see what the 12Z run gives us on the and .
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Let's see what is left of Ike after it goes past Cuba. Until that happens, anything beyond the interaction with Cuba is a guess at best. Models were forecast significant strengthening with Gustav after it went past Cuba, and the intensification never happened. The 5-day track still has a huge margin of error. If you're in the cone, you need to watch Ike. Even if you're no longer in the cone, I'd still recommend watching it, because each time the models change back and forth, the cone changes too. Yesterday, all of Florida was in the cone. Today, hardly any of the state is in the cone. Tomorrow, it could change again. We won't know until we get closer to the storm approaching, at least until it gets into the Gulf clear of Cuba.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
Some of the guidance models are suggesting more of a threat to Texas this time around, but others have started to move more eastward into the Gulf, including the Florida Panhandle.
Which ones are these? All the models at seem to be pointing towards Texas. Where can I see the models you are referring to?
Thanks
--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Which ones are these? All the models at seem to be pointing towards Texas. Where can I see the models you are referring to?
The HWRF and on Weather Underground's page are both trending northward... with pinpointing New Orleans and HWRF eyeing the Florida Panhandle. The 5am discussion specifically mentions the HWRF, but discounts it as an outlier.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
RU12
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc:
|
|
Go to the URL below and run the latest run each model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down yet.
|
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 55
Loc:
|
|
I guess time will tell how strong the trough is. If it is as predicted and doesn't cause much weakening in the ridge the westward motion will continue. If its stronger than anticipated it could create a weakness in the ridge that would allow a more northward motion.
|
CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
|
|
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W S OF 23N. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WHICH IS REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE.
Anyone have any idea how any futher development of this area will effect Ike
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Well here's the factor that we are all looking @. First thing First, does IKE move west longer and thru most of Cuba and exit near 81W or does just interact with Cuba along the north coast and move out moreso near 78-79W? Further north will have greatest impact on the Keys. 1st course would bring Tropical Storm force conditions to the Keys. 2nd course would bring a major Hurricane to the Keys. Now the 1st course might take it near 25N and 85W, 2nd near 25N and 83W, just 2dg will make a big difference in not only affecting the Keys, but also Floridas west coast and most importantly here, the future movement.
Now with that said, let me give you a reasoning. First we do believe the first trough will bypass IKE. If IKE takes his slightly southern course above, then he might want to tend further west before a 2nd trough comes down and pushes IKE north into LA (Biloxi MS-Upper TX coast). Or what we might see happen is the 2nd course would make IKE stall in the eastern GOM with weak steering currents around 26N and 84-85W meander for a day before the 2nd trough picks him up and take IKE North and NNE towards the NE Gulf from there-Biloxi. Another words there are 2 scenerios. I dont see how IKE will miss both them troughs and make it to a area south of Galveston, TX. I wont say it wont happen, but just dont see it this time of year.
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
I just don't see Ike going more south than he is now.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Even going west he tangles with cuba and friction alone should slow him down at least 3 or 4mph and he is already slowing down as evidenced by the most recent advisory..
so... that being the case...
i don't see how he takes the bottom of the cone
he is bottom heavy now.. his moisture is to the south not the north except for one long far away band
note carefully the moisture that blew up in the BOC and is moving east and then gets shunted back in the flow to the west
showers from that moisture not ike are visible on long range key west radar
if ike slows... does the high begin to break down.. ???
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Timing will mean everything, but something else to consider, that was mentioned awhile back but has not been mentioned with Ike. More powerful hurricanes typically are more likely to move poleward. So this would tend to result in more of a threat to the central Gulf than to Texas. I don't know or understand the mechanics behind it, though.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
or Alabama... or NW florida...
somehow the poleward arguement would be that any weakness and it would grab it
texas would i think be no weakness
a lot depends on cuba
if it tangles with cuba head on its a weaker storm
if it for some reason misses and slides along the north coast and the straits it could intensify into a stronger storm
bath tub water in the straits
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Perhaps the models are thinking interaction with Cuba is going to literally rip Ike apart, and there won't be much left to get pulled up by a trough?
That could explain why they are all now forecasting the hurricane to miss the trough, although it's suspect until the interaction with Cuba actually occurs.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I am beginning to think that nothing is going to influence Ike's path into the GOM.
However his size continues to grow.
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
quick question...a 12Z model run means that it was run with data that is 5 hours old, correct, since 12Z runs come out at 17Z time...just making sure
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I am beginning to think that nothing is going to influence Ike's path into the GOM.
However his size continues to grow.
Nothing influence Ike's path? Not even the high? That seems unlikely...
Or do you mean that the trough won't influence it?
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 07 2008 05:10 PM)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
If the 0Z runs tonight show IKE staying below 23N and 83W then this will most likely stay far enough south for a impact in the NW GOM later this week or next weekend.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
