MikeC
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5PM EDT Wednesday, 29 Sept 2010 - Update
TS Nicole is no more - I'm not convinced that it ever was 
It goes down in the books as a six-hour storm. Center elongated and could no longer be tracked. No further Advisories and all Watches/Warnings have been cancelled. Heavy showers still hitting southeast Florida and the Bahamas. An gale has formed off the Florida coast and will slam into the Carolinas tonight and Thursday.
Watching two areas in the central Atlantic that have a low probability for any development.
ED
10:53AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
TD#16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole.
All Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida have been discontinued as Nicole is forecast to remain East of the State. Rain still will occur along the peninsula.
Outside of this, it is possible for more from the western Caribbean, and there are two areas in the Central Atlantic that have low chances of forming.
Mark Sudduth from Hurricane Track.com is doing live video from the rainfall caused by "Nicole" in North Carolina track him here
West Caribbean IR/Rainbow Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop
Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop
Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording
Cuban Radar
Flhurricane Long Term Radar Recording of Florida Approach of TD#16
8:50AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
The new "best track" for Tropical Depression 16 puts it at 21.9N 80.9W, or offshore just south of Playa Giron, Cuba. (which is due south of Marathon Key).
What this likely means for Florida is just more time for the stream of moisture to pull up from the Caribbean, and more rainfall over a longer period of time.
6:00AM EDT Wednesday, 29 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings were extended northward to Sebastian Inlet overnight. The broad area of monsoonal-like convection stretching from Jamaica and points west northward through Florida will continue today, bringing lots of rain to South and East Central Florida. The Depression is in the midst of all this on the north side of Cuba now, and is expected to landfall in south Florida tonight.
Most of the rain associated directly with the storm will be seen in South Florida and East Central Florida (aka, Brevard, Indian River) counties. Rain to the west will exist too, but not as dense or frequent as there. South Florida is already getting the rain, and for Central Florida, most of the rain will show up this afternoon. Rain will extend fairly far north with a combination of the stalled out front and the Caribbean monsoonal like flow.
Once past Florida it will start to lose any tropical characteristics and then increase rain and wind along the Carolinas as a non-tropical system, and probably bring lots of rain there and points northeast.
The depression itself is more of a hybrid storm than anything, and is hard to locate on satellite photography. The official statements are based on radar and Recon findings.
There remains a large mass of activity within the Caribbean that will continue to draw up rain after this, and may potentially form another tropical or hybrid system later. Maybe as soon as this weekend.
8:45PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Today's very heavy rainfall in Central Florida was from a stalled out front enhanced by the large broad area of tropical moisture associated with TD#16. In fact, Central Florida received much more rain (so far) than South Florida did today.
The center is still a bit difficult to track as TD#16 is not purely tropical. Pressures are very low in the area however, and it is expected to move nearer to South and Central Florida tomorrow night. Until it gets a persistent center it will probably remain a depression.
2:55PM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
The best track has been altered to read Tropical Depression again, so it may not quite be nicole at 5.
I would not try to base movement on center positions, though, as the center was poorly defined. The overall convection is the best thing to monitor right now. And it may have slower forward motion than indicated.
It may mean some changes in watches/warnings, but still the system is expected to remain at Tropical Storm strength and has to cross over the isle of Youth and Cuba before hand. Those in east Central Florida will want to watch for that.
10:55AM EDT Tuesday, 28 September 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings: Jupiter Inlet South to East Cape Sable, including Keys. Tropical Storm Watch, Chokoloskee south and Sebastian South.
Warnings up for Cuba and Grand Cayman, as well as watches for the western Bahamas.
Most of the energy of the system should stay to the east of Florida, so most of the Florida impact will be in the warning area. A lot depends on how it interacts with Cuba, and how organized it gets before south Florida. Odds favor the system not amounting to much in Florida currently (especially if it moves further east), but it could change. Please heed any local advisories/warnings.
Recon should be arriving near the system around 1PM - 1:30PM this afternoon.
Original Update
The wave in the western Caribbean has remained mostly disorganized overnight, but still is creeping toward organization. It is likely to become a tropical depression or storm today. It appears the complex of storms further eastward than pointed out yesterday (Closer to southwest of the halfway point between the caymans and the Isle of Youth) at this time.
It has a short window to strengthen before approaching Cuba, which land interactions will likely keep it from rapidly strengthening. It appears that perhaps only extreme southeastern Florida will see much impact from the storm as most of the activity will be toward the east. Other parts of Florida likely will see increased rainfall especially tomorrow, but odds are it won't be too bad. It will important to watch for changes in the near term, however, as a lot depends on where the center of the tropical cyclone forms.
The down side to barely missing or clipping extreme southeastern Florida is it increases the risk to the Carolinas and the Northeast that it could be a stronger storm then. Those in Wilmington, NC, may get the really heavy rainfall. The good side is that the storm does not appear to stop moving, so a prolonged downpour is unlikely.
There is still quite a few questions with the system, but it appears, at least for Florida, it won't be much more than rainfall, more the further southeast you go. How much overall depends on how quickly the storm moves and how far east (and possibly away from Florida) it gets. Odds are it will be a non-event in most of Florida. However it could change, and those in Florida will want to continue to watch the system, and heed any official advisories. Rain chances will be very high over the next few days regardless.
Beyond that, the Caribbean likely will continue to bubble up activity for another two weeks or so, none of which seems likely to become major, but will still have to be watched.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 29 2010 09:08 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Just a note to guide folks to this new thread that was started earlier this morning. Also see the Storm Forum for additional information on this developing system.
ED
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allan
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We have fully Tropical Depression 16!
AL 16 2010092812 BEST 0 202N 828W 30 1001 TD
I thought they were gonna aim for Nicole due to them finding TS force winds in some locations.. Nicole should arrive before the day is out. A nice circulation with deep convection almost around it. Warnings should be up for Cuba and watches should go up for the East Coast of FL when the advisory comes out, should be quite interesting. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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MikeC
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Advisories are very likely to begin being issued on TD#16 or Nicole at 11AM. 20.2N, 82.8W
Tropical Storm watches and warnings likely will be issued for Cayman Islands, Cuba, south Florida, and portions of the western Bahamas.
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danielw
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RECON is scheduled for a start within the hour, at last check. I'll update as soon as the new bulletin is out.
Western side of the model output is just east of a Tampa to Jacksonville line, so most of the Peninsula should pay close attention to this system.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z.............. 11:30 EDT Tuesday
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 28 2010 02:24 PM)
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weathernet
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Thats very interesting that the initial fix would be at 20.2 N and 82.8 W. Not unreasonable given the area of most visible LLC rotation. However, this circulation currently would appear rather elongated and extend to the Southwest. Given the broad nature of this system, I think that it would not be unrealistic to potentially see an adjustment to the positioning. Recon will certainly aid significantly in helping to determine if this evolving system might in fact be developing closer to 19N and 85W, where convection continues to re-fire ( albeit being impacted by moderate shear ). Also will be interesting to see if the far more impressive convective area just to the southeast does in fact start to rotate around the initial position, or it turns out to be transient and decreases with time. This too, might aid overall convergence so that "whatever" LLC might better consolidate. Though near term and future motion would seem to be fairly clustered by most reliable models, the ultimate positioning of the system will certainly have an impact on how much rain or wind parts of Cuba, South Florida, Bahamas and points north might see.
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NewWatcher
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Mike, thats 16 not 17 and its up on the Navy site so we should see it at 11 am advisory.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
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That's a secondary low pressure down there near 18.5N and 85.2 W this is what some of the models pick up on in a couple days after the first Low heads NNE. This one here wont get pulled north early on cause it will be on the bottom of the digging trough, moreless trapped near Honduras for the next couple of days. Be interesting though to see if it organizes more after our possible subtropical-tropical storm later this evening starts moving away in a day or 2 allowing this to develop.
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danielw
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TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE
DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48
HOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS
DEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
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danielw
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SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM MATANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA
* THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA
* NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
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k___g
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After reviewing the floaters it does appear that there may be more than one COC. However, the main one seems to be around 21N 82W moving just east of the Caymans toward Cuba.
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Joeyfl
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Actually the center is just south of the Isle of Youth (island south of western Cuba. Its fairly easy to see in visible loops its a tad north of the 12Z position. 12Z is dead on to the current position and is taking it a little more west landfall near Key West and then near Naples and exiting near Daytona. This would bring more rains to east coast Floirda. Will see if other models follow suit today...
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MikeC
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It's nearly Tropical Storm status, recon should tell us fairly soon if it is. The center is still really "up for grabs" until the recon fix. Either way it doesn't change it all that much, if it's further north and west it just means more rain for more of Florida.
So far Recon reports may be leaning toward the center being closer to the Isle of Youth than the 2PM position.
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WPBSUE
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Just wondering if the location of the coc would make a difference given the varying terrain of cuba. I would think the soon to be "Nicole" would weaken going over the mountains or gain some developement going over fairly flat lands.
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NewWatcher
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TS NICOLE
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TS, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 832W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 829W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 250, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
This was posted and then deleted, so no Nicole today.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Wed Sep 29 2010 12:42 PM)
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MikeC
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based on recon and the best track, Nicole is forming in the Western Caribbean. I would not try to base movement on center positions, though, as the center was poorly defined. The overall convection is the best thing to monitor right now.
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crpeavley
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But as the models move the center further west, won't that same convection move further west, as the 12Z is showing?
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MikeC
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Quote:
But as the models move the center further west, won't that same convection move further west, as the 12Z is showing?
Yes, but don't take this mornings center point (11AM advisory) and this afternoons (2PM) point, along with likely 5PM to indicate direction of movement. These were due mainly to center relocations. Latest being 21.2N, 82.9W from Recon. and the 5PM will.
It may mean some changes in watches/warnings, but still the system is expected to remain at Tropical Storm strength and has to cross over the isle of Youth and Cuba before hand.
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MikeC
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The best track has been altered to read Tropical Depression again, so it may not quite be nicole at 5. Although the rain approaching Central Florida right now is mostly due to the stalled out front and an outside chance that a feeder band that may be attempting to form for the storm.
Report conditions in your area here
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Steve H1
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The Recon data does not currently support a tropical storm. This depression seems to be trying to organize and there is some shear further to the "centers" north, but I do expect it could make it to Nicole tomorrow morning. I believe it is moving slower than advertised, if not drifting. Definitely seems like a boatload of rain for the Southeast.
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