Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Saw a mention on the front page about this and have been looking at it on various satellites. Definitely a strong area of convection with a little twist to it just off of Southwest Florida. Water temps are incredibly high and the atmosphere is still juiced by leftovers of a frontal trough in the neighborhood. No mention of this feature by the local METs. What does everyone think about it?
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2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Funny you should mention that. I just looked at our local weather radar and it looked a bit odd. I'm inland Collier County; we had strong storms earlier this afternoon and are in and out of the rain (we need that). Strange weather patterns indeed.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Reply to Lamar in Plant City - I commented on this earlier but it was this morning. At 250mb and 300mb (35,000 and 30,000 feet) there is a sharp shortwave that is very close to being cutoff. Thunderstorm activity is on the east side of the feature thus explains the slow northward drift. The area has very low wind shear aloft but is forecasted to become hostile in 48 to 72 hours so unless this feature moves over the Atlantic it won't survive in the GOM. Yes, there is an old frontal boundary in the area, a place for convergence at the surface and difluence aloft supporting vertical rise. If there's something there, the environment for the short term is conducive, but hostile thereafter, I hope this helps.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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