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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

Pages: 1

lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker

Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL

Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida
#89895 - Thu Oct 14 2010 07:03 PM

why the large divergence between the track and the models?

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Oct 15 2010 04:08 AM)

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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

NHC Forecast Vs Model Output [Re: lunkerhunter]
#89898 - Fri Oct 15 2010 04:27 AM

One is a forecast - the models are guidance to consider in making the forecast. In this case however, the 11PM discussion indicates that the forecast is generally close to the middle of the significantly spread model guidance package and very close to the TVCN (Consensus output). From :

"VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE . THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY
DIVERGENT MODEL GUIDANCE."

The models assume that the system will remain intact - I don't think that they can determine (or handle) a decoupled system with any degree of reliability. While it is certainly true that the models have improved significantly over the past decade, it is also true that the meteorologist can recognize certain probable events that the automated system cannot.
ED

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