CoconutCandy
(User)
Tue Jun 26 2007 08:14 AM
Attachment
What am I Missing? / Katrina QuikScat Image

(Please Note: I promise to keep this brief, and will also serve as a 'summary' of my above post)

Aloha Robert,

Thank you for your reply. Apologies for making you cranky with my excessive post.
I hereby resolve to keep my posts much shorter in the future.

I understand and totally agree with what you said about QuikScat in your reply. I have no 'issues' with any of that.

I *do* have an issue, however, and it is this:

The News Articles state, rather 'factually' that if QuikScat *were* to fail tomorrow the NHC would have to widen the watch/warning area of the effected coastline by up to 16% for a 3-day forecast.

And one public official even said that "We would go blind. It would be significantly hazardous ... " without QuikScat.

Very briefly, my summary of QuikScat's 'limitations':

1) QuikScat shows only tropical storm force winds; only up to 60 Kts.
2) There are often *many* hours elapsed between passes over any given storm.
3) The scan is often 'incomplete', depicting only a portion of the entire circulation.
4) Sometimes, the scan will miss the center of circulation entirely.

The main point I am trying to make here is that, if a 'significant' hurricane were to threaten a US coastline, even 3 days away, we'd have non-stop recon missions (or at least 6-hourly fixes) flying into it, which then provides a plethora of 'real-time' data to crank into the models used as a forecast aid, as you mentioned.

And that any 'contribution' of QuikScat in that situation is not very significant, in view of the *huge* amount of date coming in from the hurricane hunters.

In view of this, I just fail to realize or understand *WHY*, with the lack of QuikScat in this situation, NHC would have to widen it's watches/warnings for a coastline by as much as 16%? And the 'blind' statement just makes no sense to me at all.

Yes, QuikScat *is* very important for the reasons you mentioned, and for the ones I laid out in my long post.

BUT! In the context of the news articles above and what they state ... Why? Why? Why? I just don't 'get it'.

WHAT AM I MISSING ?? Help me out here, folks.

That's it! Told you I'd keep this brief.

- Norm in Honolulu

PS: I've attached a spectacular QuikScat image of Katrina at CAT5 a day before landfall.
Note that it's late afternoon, with the eastern eyewall lit up by the setting sun towards the west.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center