I don't know about 10%, i'd give it 40% because the CMC model was the first one to get Alberto (2006), Andrea, and it's biggest award.. Barry. This model may be up to something, UKMET follows it up with a strong wave entering the Bahamas then storm, that could change as well. GFS sort of has a blimp in the gradient which I guess shows a weak wave entering the Bahamas.. yet the CMC has a Tropical Storm forming west of Cube then heading to Texas.. and let me tell you about the temps in the gulf.. EXTREME WARMTH!!! Wow, SSTs are in the 90s.. amazing to me at the least.. I will be monitering the CMC model.. it could be up to something.

Edit -- this is the sort of post that is better suited for here than the main forum. The CMC's track record with forecasting tropical cyclone formation is atrocious and the UKMET information above is incorrect. SSTs are generally in the mid-upper 80s, not into the 90s. -Clark